vendman1
vendman1
Joined: Mar 12, 2012
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March 12th, 2015 at 1:27:51 PM permalink
Quote: Kerkebet

Wouldn't the serious or seasoned gambler readily approximately account, or at least allow, for the possibility that the stickers may transfer between marbles as randomized in a bag?



No you're over thinking it. I had a similar basic probability problem in college (stats 101) that the prof. either worded wrong or his TA messed up somehow. I don't remember the exact details but he refused to admit he was wrong even when 2 dozen students pointed out the errror during our review of the exam. Finally after much cajoling he agreed to accept our answer as correct but also accepted the wrong answer as correct as he didn't want to piss off the people who got it wrong. Sad but true.
rudeboyoi
rudeboyoi
Joined: Mar 28, 2010
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March 12th, 2015 at 1:55:07 PM permalink
Bet him extra credit points for the whole class to perform an experiment. Talk to the other students to push for it too.
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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March 12th, 2015 at 2:12:07 PM permalink
Quote: Kerkebet

Wouldn't the serious or seasoned gambler readily approximately account, or at least allow, for the possibility that the stickers may transfer between marbles as randomized in a bag?

No, but you do have to adjust the answer by the value of the comped drinks.
tringlomane
tringlomane
Joined: Aug 25, 2012
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March 12th, 2015 at 2:27:31 PM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

No, but you do have to adjust the answer by the value of the comped drinks.



I do a lot of +EV gambling that way! :D
Kerkebet
Kerkebet
Joined: Oct 2, 2014
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March 12th, 2015 at 2:47:50 PM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

No, but you do have to adjust the answer by the value of the comped drinks.


I followed the question in question as a one shot deal for "all the marbles".


Add on:

I won a tv prize many years ago by being the first contestant on a Monday, after a Friday's show in which the last contestant won the prize. The hosts neglected to change the basic elements of the puzzle which gave the answer in a different way then. It happens. Fundamental changes, or lack thereof. Certainly, to the extent that I would "blame" myself for not having followed my instincts.

In other words, to avoid a, "You gotta be sh*tting me," moment.
Nonsense is a very hard thing to keep up. Just ask the Wizard and company.
sodawater
sodawater
Joined: May 14, 2012
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March 12th, 2015 at 4:53:06 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Three of the marbles in a bag of 20 are red and have a sticker. So obviously the probability is 3/20 = 15%. The professor is over-thinking it.

My advice to the student is to appeal it to the chairman of the math department.



Thanks. She has agreed to appeal to the head of the math dept.
Doc
Doc
Joined: Feb 27, 2010
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March 12th, 2015 at 9:59:26 PM permalink
It has been well over four years since I made an off-topic post in this forum that described my own "marbles in a bag" question for my students. And in that post I noted that I had confessed some confusion about what the real answer to the statistics problem might be.

Later in that thread, I again posted something so far off topic that the whole following discussion had to be split off to a separate thread. At least it began as another tale about teaching a statistics course while not necessarily being fully qualified.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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April 11th, 2015 at 9:36:24 PM permalink
Quote: sodawater

Thanks. She has agreed to appeal to the head of the math dept.



Do you know what the head of the math department said/did?
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.

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