MrV
MrV
Joined: Feb 13, 2010
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October 19th, 2011 at 8:56:09 PM permalink
My Secret Confession is that I read and reread his two books on Craps, and they were quite helpful.

I was once a regular at his board, but as time passed I concluded the emperor had no clothes.

In fact, with Frank Stanton now acting as his court jester, I fear he has no sanity.
"What, me worry?"
Nareed
Nareed
Joined: Nov 11, 2009
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October 19th, 2011 at 9:04:38 PM permalink
Quote: rxwine

Let's modify the question.

Okay, if everyone purposely went to Vegas to play the game of their choice (like they would normally do) and absolutely made a plan to leave as soon as they were ahead, no exceptions,



That would be an interesting experiment to try.

How far ahead? Say I buy-in for $100 and flat bet $5. Do I leave the minute I reach $110? (flat bet or not, the dealer should be tipped $5) Or maybe set a stop point, say being ahead by 15% of the buy-in?
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
kp
kp
Joined: Feb 28, 2011
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October 20th, 2011 at 7:46:28 AM permalink
Quote: rxwine

absolutely made a plan to leave as soon as they were ahead, no exceptions


What is "leave"? What is "ahead"?

How long do I have to leave before I come back? Is going to dinner for an hour good enough? Do I have to go home and come back to Vegas in 3 months, 6 months, or a year? Do I have to quit gambling?

If a 21 year old walks into a casino and places their very first bet and wins, then they could quit gambling while ahead. The rest of us mentally reset the score to zero the "next time" we play, bet that after dinner, tomorrow, or the next trip.
dm
dm
Joined: Apr 29, 2010
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October 20th, 2011 at 10:31:45 AM permalink
Quote: Keyser

"70 percent of people at a casino visit are ahead at one point"

I've seen this phrase tossed around in various locations for a while now. What's the source of this bad information? Is it John
Patrick?




There has to be a big difference between the percent at Red Rock (LV) vrs a cruise ship.
pacomartin
pacomartin
Joined: Jan 14, 2010
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October 20th, 2011 at 11:03:21 AM permalink


I've seen it attributed to this book.

The comment is almost meaningless. I would think if a craps player confines his initial bets to the pass line and free odds, you would expect more than 70% to be ahead at some point in their playing. At least 22.2% will be ahead on the first roll of the dice.
dm
dm
Joined: Apr 29, 2010
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  • Posts: 699
October 20th, 2011 at 11:04:56 AM permalink
Quote: Mosca

Man, I dunno. I'd agree with it. You sit down at a slot and on the third spin, you get 3 mixed bars... you're up one unit. Win the first two hands at blackjack, or the first roll at craps, you're up. Put $100 in a $1 WoF slot and get a spin some time in the first 20 pulls, you're going to be ahead.

Most people don't go to win, they go to have fun. Winning and leaving after 3 minutes isn't fun. You don't go to a football game and leave after the first series of downs because if you stay you'll buy a hot dog and a beer. Being ahead at any one point is totally irrelevant.



Why aren't you up if you win the FIRST blackjack hand?
ncfatcat
ncfatcat
Joined: Jun 25, 2011
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October 20th, 2011 at 11:50:27 AM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

Just like his books. They are fun to read if you like that sort of thing. I do.

Gambling system books amuse me. But then so do infomercials...



Must be a thing. I've read all John Patrick's books and I find infomercials amusing also.
Gambling is a metaphor for life. Hang around long enough and it's all gone.
EvenBob
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
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October 20th, 2011 at 1:30:25 PM permalink
Quote: pacomartin



I've seen it attributed to this book. The comment is almost meaningless.



Its meaningless because the implication is, quit while
you're ahead and come back and do it again. This is
impossible if you don't have the edge. All gambling
sessions are linked to all the other sessions you've
played. Its all one long session. So you're ahead $25
and leave. Do the same next time. And the next time.
Then you play and you're never ahead in the next
session and lose $400. You can play this way forever
and eventually find you're losing right at the house
edge.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
marksolberg
marksolberg
Joined: Nov 14, 2009
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October 20th, 2011 at 2:03:31 PM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

Show me the rule....



I don't know if you were being sarcastic or not but I'll still throw it out there. If I saw you drop $1000 and picked it up when you walked away is it mine?

Mark
EvenBob
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
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October 20th, 2011 at 2:28:41 PM permalink
Quote: marksolberg

I don't know if you were being sarcastic or not but I'll still throw it out there. If I saw you drop $1000 and picked it up when you walked away is it mine?Mark



Under the law, no. You're supposed to turn it in. If you see
money or chips on a casino floor and pocket them, and they
get it on camera, you'll be arrested. Seriously.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal

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