OnceDear
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OnceDear
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May 1st, 2016 at 7:25:44 AM permalink
Quote: esedes666

The only time I'll lose is if only 2 balls landed on white.

Even if i distrubuted the 800 pesos that way, does it mean I'll only have a little less than 50% probability of winning?


Exactly two balls landing on white and NO yellow: You lose.
Probability of that happening is 49/100*48/99*49/98 + 49/100*49/99*48/98 + 49/100*49/99*48/98 = 36%
Probability of that not happening =64% But don't get excited, 'cos some of your non-losing bets only get a little profit.

e&oe

Dude. No single result on the pay table has a positive expectation. Therefore no combination of wagers has a positive expectation. End of.

Enjoy the dealer. Have fun. Don't expect to make money.
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
Wizard
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Wizard
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May 1st, 2016 at 8:31:18 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

hmmmm My numbers don't match Mikes...... reviewing...



Our point of departure seems to be whether two or more balls can land in the same square. If you look at the video carefully it seems impossible, or at least very unlikely, to me.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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May 1st, 2016 at 8:46:00 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Ah....
2red and one white or 3 reds pays 1:1..... lets see....
Probability of 3 reds =(49/100)^3
Probability of 2 reds and one white ( not yellow )= 3 x (49/100)^2 x (49/100)
Therefore probability of 'at least 2 reds and no yellow = (49/100)^3 + 3 x (49/100)^2 x (49/100)=0.352947
but it only pays 1:1
So the house edge on that is 1-2x0.352947=29.41%

If I have that right. Don't walk away. Run away screaming.

hmmmm My numbers don't match Mikes...... reviewing...

Ah.... Because only one ball can go in one pocket....
P 3 reds=49/100 x 48/99 x 47/98 = .1139394 not the 0.117 that I gave... But then Mike had seen the game video.


That wasn't the main problem in your original calculation.

0.352497 = 3 x (49/100)^2 x (49/100). You didn't add the (49/100)^3 to it.

Also, Mike's version doesn't seem to match the OP's.
Mike's numbers make it look like a bet on "2 White" wins if it includes one logo, but the OP's says that all white and red bets lose on any yellow.
Also, Mike shows different bets for one red, two reds, and three reds, and implies that if one wins, then the other two lose, while the OP says that the bets are "(two or mroe) red" and "all red", and both win if all three balls land in red.
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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May 1st, 2016 at 8:47:10 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Our point of departure seems to be whether two or more balls can land in the same square. If you look at the video carefully it seems impossible, or at least very unlikely, to me.

Agreed and fixed in edit. Note to self: For questions that don't feature the radical sign, Mike is mostly always right. $;d)
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
DRich
DRich
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May 1st, 2016 at 9:26:40 AM permalink
Wouldn't it be about a 6% house edge when betting on one Red or one White if a Yellow causes all Red/White bets to lose?
Order from chaos
Wizard
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Wizard
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May 1st, 2016 at 11:21:37 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Note to self: For questions that don't feature the radical sign, Mike is mostly always right. $;d)



Ouch!
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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May 1st, 2016 at 11:33:59 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Ouch!

Tee Hee. Just Kidding Mike. That Radical sign thing was a revelation to most members, certainly to me.
As punishment to me, the universe has just reminded me of the original 2 dice thread.
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
esedes666
esedes666
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May 1st, 2016 at 12:11:50 PM permalink
Yup, any yellow makes red and white loses. Eg. 1 yellow 2 reds or 1 yellow 2 whites or 1 yellow 1 white and 1 red.

Correct, since I placed a 500 peso bet on 2 reds and 100 peso bet on 3 reds, both of my bets win.

And yes, it has to be 2 or all on the same color (without the yellow, ofcourse).

Thanks guys with the computation and all. Now I know that the way I distrubuted the money on the betting table...I'll have a 36% probability of losing.
Last edited by: esedes666 on May 1, 2016
Wizard
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Wizard
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May 1st, 2016 at 1:39:24 PM permalink
Quote: esedes666

Yup, any yellow makes red and white loses. Eg. 1 yellow 2 reds or 1 yellow 2 whites or 1 yellow 1 white and 1 red.



Thanks. I amended my post with the tables to show the math both ways. I also didn't know that three reds would be a winner for two reds, which I fixed.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Wizard
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Wizard
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May 1st, 2016 at 3:55:28 PM permalink
Please check out my new page on Red and White. As usual, I welcome questions, comments, and especially corrections.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.

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