tsmith
tsmith
Joined: Jan 15, 2010
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August 22nd, 2012 at 7:09:44 AM permalink
I once read something somewhere, it might have been here, that the brain reacts to near misses almost the same way it reacts to wins. Same adrenalin, same endorphins, etc.

I have a friend who is constantly saying things like, "Oh! If the 7 had been on this line instead of that line I would've won a thousand dollars," or, "If that stupid cherry hadn't been there I would've had the jackpot," or "If I hadn't lowered my bet I would've won $200 instead of only $10."

My stock answer to her is, "Yeah, and if my grandmother had balls she'd be my grandfather." :)
Mission146
Mission146 
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August 22nd, 2012 at 8:20:06 AM permalink
Quote: soulhunt79



While I have no proof, I am convinced a few slot machines I've played have a better chance of hitting the bonus symbol on the 2nd reel vs the 4th reel(in this case I'm playing a machine that requires something on reels 2/3/4 to get to the bonus. I don't know if this is the case or not, but I'll assume it is for my point.


Would you consider this just random chance or would you call this designed to tease? They are intentionally making it look like you are very close to the bonus. This isn't just the random chance, they designed it so it will have that slow 3rd symbol spin more often than is mathmatically possible if all reels were equal.



It is designed that way. I have something that I am (hopefully) conducting very relevant to this thread in the works if I don't get myself banned from the casino, but I'm not going to go into any specifics because it will be at least a month from now. I emphasize, AT LEAST. It's a big project.

In any event, if you would kindly peruse my earlier post about the, "Simple Sevens," machine, the concept for the 2nd-4th Reel Free Games is EXACTLY 100% the same. If you hit Free Games on QuickHits, but not on the 2nd Reel, it doesn't ding, it doesn't do anything to draw the player's attention to it. Why? The player has already failed to get it if it is not on the second reel.

It dings on 2nd, and louder when 2nd+3rd.

I find myself getting sucked in, it's infectious, brilliant machine!!! "Three in a row? I missed three in a row? It must be coming, now!!!" I know better than that! I study these things, I take notes! We WANT to believe the Free Games are coming, and our brains are DESIGNED to detect patterns in things. We even think that we hit Free Games shortly after near misses because that is when we are specifically looking for them to be a result of the spin, so it ends up being self-reenforcing. Beautiful work by Bally Technologies. If we hit the Free Games absent any near misses, we are pleased because it is a, "Surprise." When you have the near misses, though, you start expecting it. If that expectation gets fulfilled, just once, it becomes reenforced just a little bit more!

Yes, they did design it that way. Maximize excitement, maximize entertainment, maximize revenue.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
Mission146 
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August 22nd, 2012 at 8:26:01 AM permalink
Quote: FarFromVegas


Plus, putting a bonus symbol in the third spot lessens the chance you'll get a third symbol you need to complete a payline. You'll get the first and second frequently, but they lessen your chance of getting a non-bonus payout. It's no accident.



Strictly speaking, that's not true. Your chances of completing the payline for Three Sevens, for example, are the same if you replace the bonus symbol with anything except a Seven or a Wild. Furthermore, with some games, you need a bonus symbol on the first/last payline. The design of those games is such that you willl hit that symbol a good bit on the first and it will keep you on the edge of your seat while the other four reels complete spinning, it has nothing to do with them preventing you having a paying symbol on the first payline.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
Mission146 
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August 22nd, 2012 at 8:27:28 AM permalink
Quote: tsmith

I once read something somewhere, it might have been here, that the brain reacts to near misses almost the same way it reacts to wins. Same adrenalin, same endorphins, etc.

I have a friend who is constantly saying things like, "Oh! If the 7 had been on this line instead of that line I would've won a thousand dollars," or, "If that stupid cherry hadn't been there I would've had the jackpot," or "If I hadn't lowered my bet I would've won $200 instead of only $10."

My stock answer to her is, "Yeah, and if my grandmother had balls she'd be my grandfather." :)



AceofSpades was kind enough to link us to a research paper on Page 1 that substantially describes this very thing. If you read it, I am sure you will enjoy it.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
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August 22nd, 2012 at 8:58:40 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Quote: 24Bingo

You seem to be missing my point - obviously, if the reels are independent, there are going to be a lot more "teases" than hits, just like you're going to see more aces than blackjacks. I was wondering about the rumor that the machines were specifically designed to "tease" the guest, or if this was just a consequence of that fact?



Yes, specifically designed. Not a rumor, fact.


Didn't there use to be something in the Nevada Gaming Regulations that required each reel to be independent of the others? Now, all it says is, "The mathematical probability of a symbol appearing in a position in any game outcome must be constant." Assuming a 20-symbol reel with, say, 100 virtual stops per reel (so there are 1,000,000 possible "logical" positions distributed among the 8000 "physical" results), can the machine assign 50 of the 1,000,000 logical results to "jackpot, jackpot, just above the jackpot", 50 to "jackpot, just above the jackpot, jackpot", and 50 to "jackpot, jackpot, just above the jackpot" (in this case, 150 near misses), without having to assign 2500 to "jackpot, just above the jackpot, just above the jackpot" (since, on reels 2 and 3, "just above the jackpot" would be 50 times as likely as "jackpot")? After all, on any spin, the probability of the symbol just above the jackpot symbol on reel 3 being on the pay line has the same probability as on any other spin - it just so happens that it's more likely when reels 1 and 2 have the jackpot symbol on the pay line. Or does "in any game outcome" mean something that I am missing?
Mission146
Mission146 
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August 22nd, 2012 at 9:17:47 AM permalink
I may or may not have to respond to the first part after I say this:

If we are talking about a single-payline, three-reel machine, then there is no, "Just above the jackpot." How it works is that, let's say a Jackpot symbol on the third reel is Reel Assignment 29, and Reel Assignments 30-55 are all blanks on the RNG. If the RNG hits a result between 30-55, then a blank will show up on the payline, however, there are not that many consecutive blank displays on the reel. It will display (above and below) the next closest symbols up and down that are not blanks. It is for that reason that you end up with a Jackpot symbol, "Near-Miss," above the payline when the RNG could have been 30 (numerically close, though no more likely) or 50 (numerically nowhere near the jackpot) and still display the jackpot above.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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August 22nd, 2012 at 10:18:21 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

If we are talking about a single-payline, three-reel machine, then there is no, "Just above the jackpot." How it works is that, let's say a Jackpot symbol on the third reel is Reel Assignment 29, and Reel Assignments 30-55 are all blanks on the RNG. If the RNG hits a result between 30-55, then a blank will show up on the payline, however, there are not that many consecutive blank displays on the reel. It will display (above and below) the next closest symbols up and down that are not blanks. It is for that reason that you end up with a Jackpot symbol, "Near-Miss," above the payline when the RNG could have been 30 (numerically close, though no more likely) or 50 (numerically nowhere near the jackpot) and still display the jackpot above.


I understand that - that is why I differentiated between "physical" stops and "logical" ones.

Your description implies that there is a separate number generated for each reel - using my example, a number from 0 to 999,999 would be converted into three numbers from 0-99 (e.g. the number 123,456 becomes 12, 34, and 56).
Let's assume that each reel has 100 numbers assigned to it, one of which stops on the jackpot symbol and 10 of which stop on the symbol that is one above the jackpot symbol on the physical reel. If each reel is independent, then, of the 1,000,000 possible values, 10 of them are "jackpot, jackpot, one above", 10 are "jackpot, one above, jackpot, jackpot", and 10 are "one above, jackpot, jackpot"; however, 100 of them are "one above, one above, jackpot", 100 are "one above, jackpot, one above", and 100 are "jackpot, one above, one above." If the reels are not independent, then 30 of the 1,000,000 numbers can be assigned among the three "near miss" positions, but you wouldn't have to assign any, much less 300, of them to the "one jackpot and two off-by-one" results.

What I was asking was, is it still a requirement that each reel's "number" be independent of the other reels?
Mission146
Mission146 
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August 22nd, 2012 at 10:33:34 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

I understand that - that is why I differentiated between "physical" stops and "logical" ones.

Your description implies that there is a separate number generated for each reel - using my example, a number from 0 to 999,999 would be converted into three numbers from 0-99 (e.g. the number 123,456 becomes 12, 34, and 56).
Let's assume that each reel has 100 numbers assigned to it, one of which stops on the jackpot symbol and 10 of which stop on the symbol that is one above the jackpot symbol on the physical reel. If each reel is independent, then, of the 1,000,000 possible values, 10 of them are "jackpot, jackpot, one above", 10 are "jackpot, one above, jackpot, jackpot", and 10 are "one above, jackpot, jackpot"; however, 100 of them are "one above, one above, jackpot", 100 are "one above, jackpot, one above", and 100 are "jackpot, one above, one above." If the reels are not independent, then 30 of the 1,000,000 numbers can be assigned among the three "near miss" positions, but you wouldn't have to assign any, much less 300, of them to the "one jackpot and two off-by-one" results.

What I was asking was, is it still a requirement that each reel's "number" be independent of the other reels?



I'm going to answer the last question, yes.

In other words, the RNG(s) must be a numerical value for each reel and go to that value. This does mean that you cannot have an RNG that simply assigns numbers to final results based on the reel combinations and then goes straight to the result. I don't think that there would be any effective difference between one or the other. They may have decided that the latter is somehow deceptive, but the former isn't, I don't know.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Woldus
Woldus
Joined: Jan 13, 2011
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August 22nd, 2012 at 11:56:48 AM permalink
Quote: aceofspades

The Psychology of Near Misses



Very interesting read...thanks Ace.

They mentioned that some people consult books of lucky numbers. I am willing to sell my version for just $10.99 + S&H.

As a teaser here's a sample;

Page 1. "1"
Page 2. "2"
Page 3. "3"
Page 4. [You've got buy it to see...]


I can't give the whole thing away, but that may get you started on a few of the lower numbers. The first 36 pages (and the special "0" and "00" appendices) are 100% guaranteed for roulette wins... yup, 100% guaranteed!

PM me for more info.

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