Murut99
Murut99
Joined: Nov 27, 2022
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November 27th, 2022 at 2:51:59 PM permalink
I wish it was a simple as that. I have to support my thesis with theories, lemmas and prepositions I learned during my studies. So, I have to somehwat link it to the lecture notes. If this proves to be too diffcult I will see if I can alter the formula to make it easier or to merge the optimal and fictive player into one player as mentioned by you in a comment above.

I was thinking to deviate between a certain loss (let's say the player has a 16 against a 10 and the next card is a 10) and the times where a fictive player would win and a optimal player would not (let's say a 17 against a 10 with the next cards being a 4 and a 6; the optimal player would stand and lose and the fictive player would hit and at least push). But I think this would prove to be too difficult to handle, so I was hoping someone could help me find a better way in doing this.

Nevertheless, thank you for replying so quickly!
charliepatrick
charliepatrick
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November 27th, 2022 at 3:28:02 PM permalink
I don't know if you're trying to prove BJ is a skillful game or trying to show students that some casino/card games have a skill element. For instance bridge and poker are skill games, where in the long run the better players will tend to win, but the skillful player knows how to play some scenarios better than the average player. However you can still have a "rotten run of cards" (although in competitions it is how you handle them compared to how others do).

In Blackjack, ignoring counting, card tracking, peeking at cards etc. the best player can learn and adopt the optimum strategy and just let luck play its part. There are some versions of Blackjack (e.g. Switch) and also some casino games, where there is a computer-calculated correct strategy but typically no-one knows all the details perfectly.

Perhaps a simpler game to think of is 3-card poker. There's a simple strategy, play Q64 or better; nevertheless many players follow hunches or play blind. As it happens if you could see all the players' hands, it has some advantage on marginal cases, and can easily be run as a simulation (just look at the cards and from the cards left, determine what hands the Dealer could make).

Thnking of bridge competitions, you could simulate, say 15-hand knockouts, and see how a skillful player does compared to a novice.
teliot
teliot
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charliepatrick
November 27th, 2022 at 3:38:25 PM permalink
Quote: Murut99

Assumptions are needed for my research and of course there is no correct way to define skill and chance.
link to original post

The difference between chess & blackjack is that chess is a "full information" game, both sides can see and use all the information available. Likewise with Backgammon, it is also a full information game. Partial information games include bridge, rummy, poker, blackjack and many novelty casino games. Full information sports include golf and pool. Partial information sports include baseball and football (hence the signaling).

The availability of partial or full information is irrelevant when it comes to the game having an element of skill. The only time there is no skill in a game is if it is a no-information game, like roulette, baccarat, slots or keno. Even then, a knowledgeable player may be able to get some information, like wheel bias, but most would be oblivious to the possibility.

Every game that uses information (even if partial information) in making decisions is a game of skill. There, that's your Ph.D. (or masters) thesis.

I think you have a profound misunderstanding about the fundamental nature of casino games and the meaning of skill. Please take this feedback, you don't want to embarrass yourself by writing a thesis with your current level of understanding of skill in casino games. I recommend you begin by reading everything you can about skillful play in casino games (not just blackjack).
Last edited by: teliot on Nov 27, 2022
Climate Casino: https://climatecasino.net/climate-casino/
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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November 27th, 2022 at 4:00:44 PM permalink
I just spent 3 hours playing the Wizard's site game of Black Jack using my best strategy for a $1,000 buy-in and lost 5 times in a row, or I'm down 125 hands. Somebody put a spell on me and my luck has gone so damn negative.
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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November 27th, 2022 at 4:00:59 PM permalink
Duplicate
charliepatrick
charliepatrick
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teliot
November 27th, 2022 at 4:22:06 PM permalink
Quote: teliot

...I recommend you begin by reading everything you can about skillful play in casino games...

I am not an AP but am grateful to Eliot for many of his writeups and the types of analysis that can be done. He makes a valid point that there is a lot behind the scenes about casino games. There's also knowing about House Edges and, where applicable, play and betting strategies.

His website is an excellent read and shows some advantages by tracking cards. He introduces a nice "countability" measure - the profit someone with perfect information (i.e. counting cards seen) could make, on average, which watching 100 hands and making $100 bets when it's in the Player's advatange. (I have done this analysis on some of my ideas for new games.)

I also suspect you might need to get into writing your own simulation software; there are some fun challenges in generating random numbers, how to shuffle cards properly, and testing your games against known House Edges.

btw you may have to make an educated guess how a "ploppie" plays, but many of them will split Aces and Eights and even double 11. I suspect some of them always stand on 15, some on soft 17s, but some do stand earlier on dealer's 2-6s, others stand on 12s vs 2-6. And they always take Even Money!
DRich
DRich
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November 27th, 2022 at 8:18:53 PM permalink
Quote: charliepatrick


btw you may have to make an educated guess how a "ploppie" plays, but many of them will split Aces and Eights and even double 11. I suspect some of them always stand on 15, some on soft 17s, but some do stand earlier on dealer's 2-6s, others stand on 12s vs 2-6. And they always take Even Money!



With deference to our own late Alan Mendohlson, I am going to not use the term "ploppy" as he was very insulted by the use of that term.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
OnceDear
OnceDear
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DogHand
November 28th, 2022 at 1:00:14 AM permalink
Quote: Murut99

Hi all,

I'm writing my thesis on a relative skill analysis on blackjack. I'm trying to find out if blackjack is a game of chance or a game of skill (of course we all know BJ is a game of chance).

You need to know how Blackjack has both chance elements and skill elements. It is not a simple either/or. Probabilities are constantly in play in the game, and house edge derives from that. For example, after the cards are shuffled, there is a chance that the player is dealt a dozen winning blackjacks in a row and could not lose if he didn't even know the game. Or maybe he was incredibly skilled and the dealer was dealt a dozen unbeatable hands.
You need to understand that as cards are dealt, how probabilities and the house edge change, sometimes in the players favour. The infinite deck derivation of house edge breaks slowly as the game progresses. The player's optimal play also changes. You need to understand how skilled players, card counters, constantly monitor the remaining deck constitution and modify their hand play to suit. E.g. knowing when to play 'index variations' to get the best probability of profit. It seems you do not yet understand how card counting works. Card counters are the skilled ones that have a player advantage. You absolutely need to know how they exploit their advantage by bet value spread and wonging in and out. There's also psychology skill where the card counter avoids detection by observing game supervisors.
Quote:

To conduct such a relative skill analysis I will need to define three different players: a beginner, an optimal player and a fictive player. The beginner just learned the rules of the game and follows a (naive) strategy, for example always standing when dealt a 15 or higher and never doubling, splitting or surrendering. An optimal player has mastered the game and always follows a strategy that will maximize his or her expected gain, i.e. follow the basic strategy. Finally, the fictive player has also mastered the game and follows basic strategy, however he or she knows the cards that will be dealt beforehand, without influencing the game.


Those three player types are pretty arbitrary and not recommended. Beginners can't surely all be categorised with the same flawed strategy. If you watch such beginners, they seldom play consistent same set of errors.
What you define as the optimal player is not quite right. A player that uses correct basic strategy is only playing optimally to the extent that he's not card counting. He will NOT have an advantage over the house, but will lose less slowly than your bad playing beginner.
Your fictive player is a bit of a nonsense in as much as 'what's the point of such a player'? It's like saying will a horse race bettor have an advantage if he knows which horse will win. You need to have card counter in your group. He's the guy with the skill to overcome the house advantage completely. He still is at the mercy of random chance, but wagers so as to manage his risk of ruin.
If your thesis does not cover card counting, risk of ruin, kelly criterion, index play, spread, then it will show total ignorance of the game in the real world.
Oh. And if you ever think. "Wow I could become rich, counting cards' then you have failed in your understanding.
Quote:

...he or she follows the optimal strategy. So, the optimal player can be defined.

I have used these two videos from Michael's YouTube channel for reference purposes: /watch?v=jCF-Btu5ZCk&t=959s and /watch?v=wJsGnXgrGvg.

That's an estimation of basic strategy. It's still sub-optimal and why would you think the player will achieve a gain by using it. He won't. Basic strategy is a beginners level of play with enough skill to achieve close to the house edge and lose less slowly than a less skilled player.
Quote:


link to original post

Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
Talldude90
Talldude90
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December 2nd, 2022 at 2:08:38 AM permalink
So, with the Fictive player, any action taken based off of his next card knowledge would invariably change the game. The fact that he hits a hard 17 means that the next player or dealer's hand changes.

Also I am not sure why you would chose 15 arbitrarily, just have the novice either stand on all hands or follow the exact same rule as the dealer within whatever rule set you are assuming.

If you want a better than basic strategy player I would suggest calling out a SPECIFIC type. so, a hole-carder for example. Otherwise, you need to pick a specific type of card counting and run with it. Assuming that the novice and basic strategy player do not vary bet size. This shouldn't be too difficult as the + expected value is very well defined for this type of player.

If it is not too late however, I might suggest a different path. Video poker with a progressive available that could bring the EV more positive with an altered play strategy. I.E. the novice plays with common mistakes at a significant -EV. The skillful player plays basic strategy. The optimal player plays with the best strategy based off of the board-state (the fact that the Royal is paying more than the standard payable).

Concerning your chess example, consider the following: Computers are now demonstrably better than humans at chess. Chess could now be made as a "skill based" casino game, with a house edge, and even the most skillful player in the world would be at a negative expectation with an even money bet in that game (I fully agree to this argument being used in your thesis without citation as long as you come back to this thread and say thanks :P [after it is used and published]). Consider the implications of that to your arguments put foreword here.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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December 2nd, 2022 at 5:35:50 AM permalink
Quote: teliot

Quote: Murut99

Assumptions are needed for my research and of course there is no correct way to define skill and chance.
link to original post

The difference between chess & blackjack is that chess is a "full information" game, both sides can see and use all the information available. Likewise with Backgammon, it is also a full information game. Partial information games include bridge, rummy, poker, blackjack and many novelty casino games. Full information sports include golf and pool. Partial information sports include baseball and football (hence the signaling).

The availability of partial or full information is irrelevant when it comes to the game having an element of skill. The only time there is no skill in a game is if it is a no-information game, like roulette, baccarat, slots or keno. Even then, a knowledgeable player may be able to get some information, like wheel bias, but most would be oblivious to the possibility.

Every game that uses information (even if partial information) in making decisions is a game of skill. There, that's your Ph.D. (or masters) thesis.

I think you have a profound misunderstanding about the fundamental nature of casino games and the meaning of skill. Please take this feedback, you don't want to embarrass yourself by writing a thesis with your current level of understanding of skill in casino games. I recommend you begin by reading everything you can about skillful play in casino games (not just blackjack).
link to original post



I think golf, at least competitive tournament golf, is not a ‘full information’ game. If I am on the 17th hole lining up a 70 foot putt for birdie, my strategy on whether I should ‘lag’ or definitely not leave it short WOULD vary depending on how my competitor who is on the 18th hole is doing. I certainly wouldn’t have the information on his distance to the green, his lie, etc…. I MAY have partial information, but not full information.

As far as the OP, I am not sure how analyzing his ‘fictive’ player in any way allows him to determine if BJ is a game of skill or not. It seems like a total waste of time to include any analysis of it.

The answer as to whether BJ is a game of skill or not is plainly staring you in the face. You need to compare the decisions of a RANDOM player to that of a ‘skilled’ player. NOT comparing the ‘skilled’ player to your made up ‘do the exact same thing’ player.

Thesis writing/preparing/defending is HARD!

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