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thecesspit
thecesspit
Joined: Apr 19, 2010
  • Threads: 53
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January 27th, 2014 at 3:57:04 PM permalink
Quote: s2dbaker

Since I'm guaranteed not to lose and I think the expected win is $1,000,000,000.00/e, I'd have Warren Buffet put up the $ for me and start plucking away.



Unless I misunderstood, it's a one shot deal. Not a multiple pull, and you lose a million every time you fail to grab that white ball. You decide how many balls in the pot, and get a 1 in x chance to win a x million dollars.

I'm surprised the log value is as low a $925 to walk away from a 1/1000 chance to win a billion. At $5,000 I'd probably take then money rather than the ball.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
ahiromu
ahiromu
Joined: Jan 15, 2010
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January 27th, 2014 at 4:33:12 PM permalink
My price point... the time I would take the 1/1000 chance at a billion over immediate, is about $25000 immediate. Above that payment, I'll definitely take the money. Below that immediate sum, I'll take the 1/1000 for a billion.

Everyone's price point would change, but I'm early in my life and $25k would change it.
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
sodawater
sodawater
Joined: May 14, 2012
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January 27th, 2014 at 4:40:28 PM permalink
I would take $50,000 cash over a 1/1000 chance at a billion.

However, what I would really try to do is sell percentages of my chance to wealthy investors looking for a home run return. Realistically you could probably sell enough shares to get about $500,000 cash for your 1/1000 chance at a billion.

And if you had a lot of time, you could probably sell 1 million $1 shares -- like a mega-lottery with no house edge!

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