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gpac1377
gpac1377
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March 24th, 2014 at 7:28:53 AM permalink
Quote: AnabelleT

Don't be mean.


One problem is that irrational beliefs cause a lot of harm. Here's a site that compiles examples:

http://whatstheharm.net/
"Scientists tell us that the fastest animal on earth, with a top speed of 120 feet per second, is a cow that has been dropped out of a helicopter."
Bmayo319
Bmayo319
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March 24th, 2014 at 7:36:03 AM permalink
Quote: AnabelleT

I'm new here, I play Baccarat (my favorite game), and I haven't read this entire thread, but I've read enough to understand that in this forum most people don't believe in anything but science and mathematics when it comes to gaming, and that there seems to be little tolerance for people who believe otherwise. I'm here because I'm open minded, willing to listen and willing to learn, and I appreciate the suggestions and instruction I've received here so far (I have a lot to learn still about casino gambling), but ...

If the original poster (and to a degree I, and maybe others) believe in more metaphysical, supernatural, woo woo, ridiculous, or whatever you want to call it aspects of our choosen casino game, why does it irritate some of you so much?

I practice yoga and meditation, I have done so for a long time, and these are an ingrained part of my life, and it's with me when I play Baccarat too.

Why not? Why can't I believe in patterns when I play? Why can't I believe in some kind of precognitive feeling or trust my intuition when choosing my move? Why can't I draw on a piece of paper if I believe it enhances my game somehow? Why can't I apply spiritual teachings to Baccarat when it can be applied to almost every other aspect of life (to those who choose to)? Why should any of this bother those who don't believe in any of it, don't support it, don't appreciate it, don't understand it?

I used to play slots on occasion, I'm fairly new to frequent visits to the casino to play Baccarat now (3 Card Poker as well sometimes), it's exciting and I'm loving it! I'm here to learn, explore, meet new people, share, and play. Is that ok?

"Don't be content easily. Those who remain content easily remain small, small are their joys, small are their ecstasies, small are their silences, small is their being. There's no need! This smallness is your own imposition upon your freedom, upon your unlimited possibilities, upon your unlimited potential."

You guys are all very smart and fun. I love you guys. Don't be mean.




Alot of people have nothing better to do.
I can understand that people want to point out the maths, but theres no need to be rude while doing so.
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
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March 24th, 2014 at 9:33:05 AM permalink
Quote: AnabelleT

Why not? Why can't I believe in patterns when I play? Why can't I believe in some kind of precognitive feeling or trust my intuition when choosing my move? Why can't I draw on a piece of paper if I believe it enhances my game somehow? Why can't I apply spiritual teachings to Baccarat when it can be applied to almost every other aspect of life (to those who choose to)? Why should any of this bother those who don't believe in any of it, don't support it, don't appreciate it, don't understand it?


You can, nobody's stopping you. Humans are hard-wired to detect and act on patterns, even when those patterns are observed in provably independent events. If you flip a coin 20 times, you'll observe patterns. Do it again, you'll observe more patterns. That doesn't mean you know whether heads or tails is coming next (and I think you know this), but it does mean that your brain intuitively looked at the previous sequence of heads and tails and tried to make sense of it. You can't stop, you're genetically built to do it.

However, there's a bright line between "I observed patterns in random data" and "the patterns I observed allow me to predict the future." The latter is provably false. The patterns you observe in random, independent data are not useful predictive tools. When you or anyone else starts claiming that they are, that's when you lose everyone. It's that latter claim of prediction that forms the flawed foundation of every claim to being able to beat baccarat by looking at previous hands, streaks of results, or "imbalance in the shoe".

As to bothering, it doesn't bother me at all. The casino doesn't care if you think you can predict the future of a baccarat or roulette game by tracking past results. That's why they give you the scorecards.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
Buzzard
Buzzard
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March 24th, 2014 at 9:58:13 AM permalink
And yet, they do not allow scorecards in Blackjack. I wonder, WHY ?
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
Face
Administrator
Face
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March 24th, 2014 at 10:13:30 AM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

You can, nobody's stopping you. Humans are hard-wired to detect and act on patterns, even when those patterns are observed in provably independent events. If you flip a coin 20 times, you'll observe patterns. Do it again, you'll observe more patterns. That doesn't mean you know whether heads or tails is coming next (and I think you know this), but it does mean that your brain intuitively looked at the previous sequence of heads and tails and tried to make sense of it. You can't stop, you're genetically built to do it.

However, there's a bright line between "I observed patterns in random data" and "the patterns I observed allow me to predict the future." The latter is provably false. The patterns you observe in random, independent data are not useful predictive tools. When you or anyone else starts claiming that they are, that's when you lose everyone. It's that latter claim of prediction that forms the flawed foundation of every claim to being able to beat baccarat by looking at previous hands, streaks of results, or "imbalance in the shoe".

As to bothering, it doesn't bother me at all. The casino doesn't care if you think you can predict the future of a baccarat or roulette game by tracking past results. That's why they give you the scorecards.



And just to add to the perfect post above, following your pattern (or your zone, or your chi, or whatever) cannot make you do worse.

As long as you don't get caught in progressions and break out more than you can afford in confidence that a win is due, playing whatever wonky system in Bac can't make you worse.

So, if it's fun... do it.
The opinions of this moderator are for entertainment purposes only.
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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March 24th, 2014 at 12:46:06 PM permalink
Quote: Face

And just to add to the perfect post above, following your pattern (or your zone, or your chi, or whatever) cannot make you do worse.

As long as you don't get caught in progressions and break out more than you can afford in confidence that a win is due, playing whatever wonky system in Bac can't make you worse.



That is a big if!

First, if you sometimes bet player and sometimes banker because your chi tells you to, you are losing more than if you just bet on banker.

But, that's a relatively small effect, so if it increases your fun it might be worthwhile. The casino is going to get all your gambling money anyway, so all it's really changing is how long it takes.

The REAL problem occurs when you start to believe in this nonsense and you start to bet more than you otherwise would. If you accept that you are going to lose all your gambling money, then you will probably set aside a reasonable amount of money to spend on this form of entertainment, so, you're right, it doesn't really matter how you go about losing it. Whatever is the most fun is probably what you should do.

BUT... if you believe that you will win in the long term because of some fundamental misunderstanding of mathematics, that's when things get hairy. You're no longer spending money on entertainment -- now you are investing money to make more money! All of a sudden you can justify a gambling with a LOT more money (money that you can't really afford to lose).

Worse, if you're one of these negative progression mathematically challenged types (which baccarat tends to attract) and you have a lot of winning sessions in a row (which is expected with a negative progression!) then you really start to think you are onto something. Maybe you quit your job and decide to go "pro". It goes pretty well until you lose it all and then some in one disastrous session (also expected with a negative progression!). All of a sudden you have no job, and are just another gambling degenerate trying to scrape together a few bucks to "get back in the game". Basically, you destroy your life because of belief in this nonsense.

So, yeah, it can make you do worse. A lot worse. Not only in baccarat, but in life.
AnabelleT
AnabelleT
Joined: Mar 22, 2014
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March 24th, 2014 at 1:03:07 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

That is a big if!

First, if you sometimes bet player and sometimes banker because your chi tells you to, you are losing more than if you just bet on banker.

But, that's a relatively small effect, so if it increases your fun it might be worthwhile. The casino is going to get all your gambling money anyway, so all it's really changing is how long it takes.

The REAL problem occurs when you start to believe in this nonsense and you start to bet more than you otherwise would. If you accept that you are going to lose all your gambling money, then you will probably set aside a reasonable amount of money to spend on this form of entertainment, so, you're right, it doesn't really matter how you go about losing it. Whatever is the most fun is probably what you should do.

BUT... if you believe that you will win in the long term because of some fundamental misunderstanding of mathematics, that's when things get hairy. You're no longer spending money on entertainment -- now you are investing money to make more money! All of a sudden you can justify a gambling with a LOT more money (money that you can't really afford to lose).

Worse, if you're one of these negative progression mathematically challenged types (which baccarat tends to attract) and you have a lot of winning sessions in a row (which is expected with a negative progression!) then you really start to think you are onto something. Maybe you quit your job and decide to go "pro". It goes pretty well until you lose it all and then some in one disastrous session (also expected with a negative progression!). All of a sudden you have no job, and are just another gambling degenerate trying to scrape together a few bucks to "get back in the game". Basically, you destroy your life because of belief in this nonsense.

So, yeah, it can make you do worse. A lot worse. Not only in baccarat, but in life.



You sound like my dad. I love my dad and we're very close, but if he knew how often I was going to the casino to play Baccarat he might say exactly what you just said to me here. It's ok. I'm not going to go overboard and spend more than I can afford. My family does fine, so even in the tragic scenario you bring up, I'm sure they would come to my rescue, but that's not going to happen, I promise.

To be totally honest, I do dream of the incredible excitement of going to the High Limit room on my own and playing a few hands at $100 a turn. I'm not going to do it now, I'm not ready, but eventually this is something I'm definitely going to try. Maybe I'm easily impressed but it's mind blowing excitement to me to have that experience (I did briefly once, but that was just a teaser). But again, don't worry, I'm not going to do something stupid and gamble what I don't have.

Thank you for the very real words though, I recognize it's important to keep my feet planted on the ground while flying high with Baccarat at the casino with everyone treating me like a princess! I am a Sagittarius after all :)
"The question isn't who is going to let me; it's who is going to stop me." Ayn Rand
Buzzard
Buzzard
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March 24th, 2014 at 1:24:41 PM permalink
March 24

New discoveries that capture your imagination could find you spending most of your day sequestered in your home and learning as much as you can. All indications are that you aren't going to want to do much else, Sagittarius, but it's important to remember to take breaks and get a little exercise throughout the day. Moving the body and shaking out the kinks in your muscles can get your mind going as well.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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March 24th, 2014 at 1:35:46 PM permalink
Quote: AnabelleT

You sound like my dad. I love my dad and we're very close, but if he knew how often I was going to the casino to play Baccarat he might say exactly what you just said to me here. It's ok. I'm not going to go overboard and spend more than I can afford. My family does fine, so even in the tragic scenario you bring up, I'm sure they would come to my rescue, but that's not going to happen, I promise.

To be totally honest, I do dream of the incredible excitement of going to the High Limit room on my own and playing a few hands at $100 a turn. I'm not going to do it now, I'm not ready, but eventually this is something I'm definitely going to try. Maybe I'm easily impressed but it's mind blowing excitement to me to have that experience (I did briefly once, but that was just a teaser). But again, don't worry, I'm not going to do something stupid and gamble what I don't have.

Thank you for the very real words though, I recognize it's important to keep my feet planted on the ground while flying high with Baccarat at the casino with everyone treating me like a princess! I am a Sagittarius after all :)



My point is -- accept that you are going to lose. If it's still fun, keep playing.

Once you start to believe that you will win, things get dangerous. I'm not saying "don't play". I'm saying "don't believe any of this nonsense about beating the game". Some days you will win. Some days you will lose. In the end, the casino will get all the money that you are willing to gamble with. Make sure that you are having enough fun to justify that expense, and it's all good.
Sonuvabish
Sonuvabish
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March 24th, 2014 at 3:03:52 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Nope. The spelling that you have described in standard Canadian (British on "re" vs "er" and "our" vs "or" to end words, but American for "ize" vs "ise"



I said Canadians also use -ise for -ize. I thought he was pretending to British. You're right, maybe he is pretending to be Canadian. Can we agree it's un-American?

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