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endermike
endermike
Joined: Dec 10, 2013
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March 16th, 2014 at 10:41:20 PM permalink
Quote: Gamblor

I feel like I'm being set up by a bunch of math after I give my answer. It varies but I'd say average 20 hands.



Loosely, yes you are being set up. However, the downside is rather slight. Given flat betting, on any given run of 20 hands we would guess you would be even or be ahead on that session around 47.6% of the time. After 10 sessions, we would guess you would be even or ahead in total around 44% of the time.

Same story summarized and pushed one step further:

Sessions Hands Percent Chance being even or ahead
1 20 47.6%
10 200 44%
100 2000 31%


Baccarat is a nearly even game. It take the Central Limit Theorem tremendous amounts of time to dominate the results. You may not live to see the downswing, plenty of folks don't. However, the reason the house deals the game is because over time for all those player who fortune favors, there are an equal number who it does not. Further, those in the middle feel that slow slight drift away. Best of luck, but don't gamble what you can't afford to lose. (Or stick to poker, you said you play that, right?)
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
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March 16th, 2014 at 10:42:14 PM permalink
Quote: Pabo

I don't think anyone's saying you're uneducated.



I was kind of implying it.

Certainly, uneducated when it comes to math. Or trolling. No one with any math education could believe this nonsense.
Gamblor
Gamblor
Joined: Mar 13, 2014
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March 16th, 2014 at 11:11:39 PM permalink
Quote: endermike

Loosely, yes you are being set up. However, the downside is rather slight. Given flat betting, on any given run of 20 hands we would guess you would be even or be ahead on that session around 47.6% of the time. After 10 sessions, we would guess you would be even or ahead in total around 44% of the time.

Same story summarized and pushed one step further:


Sessions Hands Percent Chance being even or ahead
1 20 47.6%
10 200 44%
100 2000 31%


Baccarat is a nearly even game. It take the Central Limit Theorem tremendous amounts of time to dominate the results. You may not live to see the downswing, plenty of folks don't. However, the reason the house deals the game is because over time for all those player who fortune favors, there are an equal number who it does not. Further, those in the middle feel that slow slight drift away. Best of luck, but don't gamble what you can't afford to lose. (Or stick to poker, you said you play that, right?)



Thanks for all the info friend. But those stats of what is probable are way off. Thus proving is all bull. You can expect until the cows come home, doesn't mean it's going to happen. Expecting an outcome based on previous hands is blanking Mathmaticians fallacy, how is it so hard to accept? Saying by hand 200 I'll be at 44%, is using those previous 200 hands. Thinking an outcome is going to happen based on prior hands is gamblers fallacy. Each hand is random and independent of the previous. When you say by hand 200, that not using previous hands to determine an outcome? Cuz if it's not... Then I don't know what is.
Catch you tomorrow
24Bingo
24Bingo
Joined: Jul 4, 2012
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March 16th, 2014 at 11:20:25 PM permalink
Sigh... let's try it this way. Flip a coin five times. What's the chance of it coming up heads every time? 50/50, right? Of course it isn't - it's one in 32. But by your logic it should be 50/50, since those first four flips don't matter to the fifth, do they? No, they don't. But once you've hit those four heads, you've narrowed down the "world" you're in sixteenfold, so the mere fact that the next flip is one in two is not only not a matter of the gambler's fallacy, but intimately connected to why it is a fallacy.

Just the same, wherever you are after 200 hands, you've narrowed down the "world" to those where you're at exactly that amount, and your chance of being above or below your new baseline 2000 hands later is again 31%. The probability of being above or below your old baseline in 1800 hands, though, has changed, due to the information of the past few hands. Just because the probabilities will change before the proposition is resolved doesn't mean you can't speak of them in advance.
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
Pabo
Pabo
Joined: Apr 29, 2011
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March 17th, 2014 at 12:18:42 AM permalink
Quote: Gamblor

Bro, you see things in black and white. I'm trying to invite you over to the grey area, there's lots of room. It's late, I'll re-read and get back tomorrow. The length of time you play as a factor, uses the previous hands in consideration, or it would be your first hand. So to say the longer you play takes the previous hands into consideration. But we both know the hands have nothing to do with each other. So how could the length of time matter when each hand is independent of the next.



True, each hand is independent of previous hands. No argument there. But as you well know, Baccarat is designed so that Banker is a slight favorite over Player, which, by definition, makes it not an even game. You can ignore Tie and limit your bet selection to either Banker or Player, but you can't claim that the game is then a 50/50 proposition when the rules favor one side over the other. It's akin to saying a coin which is altered to land on heads more often than tails is still a 50/50 proposition. It isn't. The rules of the game (and, hence, the math) says that Banker is more likely to win than Player on any given hand. Still, that's not a guarantee, just a probability.

You not only have to consider house edge in Baccarat, but as others have pointed out earlier, you also have to consider commission, which eats into your Banker winnings and affects your bottomline (i.e. how much money you have in your wallet at the end of the day). On paper you can have 50% wins and 50% losses and appear to be even, but your wallet may tell you a very different story. For example, assume you flat bet and win 50% of your bets (ignoring Ties). If even one of your winning bets is a Banker, then you are not even, thanks to the commission. Sure, you look even on paper (50% wins versus 50% losses), but you'll be a loser where it really counts: your bankroll. Of course, if you play no commission Baccarat (EZ Bac), then commission is not an issue, but the house still has the edge over you, just as it does in every other game the casino offers. Banker will still be favored over Player; therefore, Baccarat is not a 50/50 game.
Pabo
Pabo
Joined: Apr 29, 2011
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March 17th, 2014 at 12:44:55 AM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

I was kind of implying it.

Certainly, uneducated when it comes to math. Or trolling. No one with any math education could believe this nonsense.



Ha! You are probably correct on both counts, AoC. And the comment about "being in the Zone." Sounds like voodoo magic or transcendental nonsense to me. Yeah, I'm sure that's the way to go to develop a winning strategy. Train to be in The Zone. Still waiting to learn what his strategy is, but I doubt we'll learn anything useful. Much like the gr8player's blathering. Totally devoid of anything of substance.
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
Joined: Aug 31, 2010
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March 17th, 2014 at 12:59:23 AM permalink
You guys (and gals) are being trolled by someone who can't spell "mathematician" and puts the percentage sign before the number. Have higher standards: insist on your trolls at least being remotely plausible. Like this guy:
http://sharktankblog.com/business/sullivan-generator/
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
michael99000
michael99000
Joined: Jul 10, 2010
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March 17th, 2014 at 1:20:06 AM permalink
12 pages of a troll arguing something he knows is wrong just to be annoying.. I wish the Admins could close these threads quicker and nuke the starter. Its a waste of space.
Beethoven9th
Beethoven9th
Joined: Jul 30, 2012
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March 17th, 2014 at 3:22:52 AM permalink
Quote: Gamblor

that bethoven9 guy made a new alias as novicegambler.


Only one person would make an accusation like this. He plays at Fallsview. :D
Fighting BS one post at a time!
Gamblor
Gamblor
Joined: Mar 13, 2014
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March 17th, 2014 at 5:42:00 AM permalink
Quote: Beethoven9th

Only one person would make an accusation like this. He plays at Fallsview. :D




Some of guys are worse than politician attack ads with your "quotes". It wasn't an accusation, it was a happy ending to a story, I chose to fill in. I'm not accusing you. I made it clear, I chose to tell myself that for closure.

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