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mkl654321
mkl654321
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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January 4th, 2011 at 4:14:31 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

So go back to school and get your thicker skull drilled and drained of whatever elements are blocking your ability to see the truth.

tuttigym



You DO realize that by arguing with people who are very knowledgable on the subject, and posing unsupported theories, you're pretty much like Elmer Fudd trying to tell the captain of a 767 how to fwy the pwane, er, plane?
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
DeMango
DeMango
Joined: Feb 2, 2010
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January 4th, 2011 at 6:05:56 PM permalink
Here in Mississippi we get $73 for a $50 five or nine. You guys are getting screwed!
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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January 4th, 2011 at 6:24:15 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

1. What are the odds of having only seven losses in 495 PL decisions?

I'm still waiting for an answer to this question:
Where did you get "seven" and "495" ?
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
RaleighCraps
RaleighCraps
Joined: Feb 20, 2010
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January 4th, 2011 at 7:16:45 PM permalink
My worst fears are coming to fruition...... this stinkin thread is coming back to life and could move back to the top of the top threads list.........
PLEASE SAY IT AIN'T SO

and now all I have done is add 1 to the count. grrrrrrrrrrr
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
tuttigym
tuttigym
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
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January 6th, 2011 at 1:59:05 PM permalink
DJ: You know after thinking about your question, I might have fallen into the simplistic equation of 244 wins vs 251 loses or seven more losses than wins. That is not correct is it? However, what is correct is that the "lowest common denonminator of 495" is the result of all the ONE time wins and losses possible from the come out natural winners to the come out natural losers to each point conversion (winner) to each point loser (7 out). Therefore a valid question would be: What are the odds of throwing one 12 natural come out loser in 495 PL outcomes? The questions would continue from there regarding the one time occurence of each possible PL outcome.

DJ Thanks for straightening me out on the seven losers. We now have a 495 sided coin that can land only once on each of its sides in 495 flips. (Each side represents one way of winning or losing such as a 12 come out loser and a 1-6 (7) natural come out winner)

tuttigym
goatcabin
goatcabin
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January 6th, 2011 at 5:23:38 PM permalink
The "Perfect 495" does not go down to individual numbers in integers. You can tell that because the odds against rolling a comeout 12 are not 494:1, right? The "Perfect 495" looks like this:

comeout win: 110
comeout loss: 55
point win: 134
point loss: 196
----------------------
********495

None of this is going to shift tuttigym off his rock, in any case.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
guido111
guido111
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January 6th, 2011 at 7:32:47 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

What are the odds of throwing one 12 natural come out loser in 495 PL outcomes? The questions would continue from there regarding the one time occurence of each possible PL outcome.
tuttigym


What you need to understand, and I think you may, and from what goatcabin (Alan) has tried to explain is the "495" is a rounded down number from 1980 so when you do the calculations that you have asked for you end up with whole numbers instead of rounded numbers.
Example. 1980 pass line bets, 55 will "go down" from a 12 craps that rolls.
In 495 pass line bets, 13.75 (55/4) will "go down" from a 12 craps that rolls.
So does one round up or down that 13.75?
Better to use the 1980.

If you would, start a new thread as your question is a good one and deserves it's own uncluttered thread.


Here is a formula from a friend doing the math for the pass line using a "pass line tree". I think it is overkill but there are no errors and the final answer before rounding down is a good one!
It is interesting as it does cover every "branch" and the result is a kick!

=(8/36)+(2*(((24/36)*(3/24)*(3/9))+((24/36)*(4/24)*(4/10))+((24/36)*(5/24)*(5/11))))

=(8/36)+(2*((216/7776)+(384/8640)+(600/9504))) now we must find a common denominator so we can add all the fractions which is 855,360.

=(8/36)+(2*(115776/855360))
=(8/36)+(231552/855360)
=(190080/855360)+(231552/855360)

final answer = (421632/855360)
now we see why we do "round down"
goatcabin
goatcabin
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January 7th, 2011 at 10:02:22 AM permalink
Quote: guido111

What you need to understand, and I think you may, and from what goatcabin (Alan) has tried to explain is the "495" is a rounded down number from 1980 so when you do the calculations that you have asked for you end up with whole numbers instead of rounded numbers.
Example. 1980 pass line bets, 55 will "go down" from a 12 craps that rolls.
In 495 pass line bets, 13.75 (55/4) will "go down" from a 12 craps that rolls.



Careful here, Guido; you are playing into tuttigym's hands when you say, "55 will 'go down'", etc. Better to say something like, "In a very large number of pass decisions, the percentage of comeout 12's will be very close to 55/1980, or 2.78%. Of course, this is nothing but 1/36, the probability of rolling a 12 on any roll.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
sammy55
sammy55
Joined: Feb 1, 2011
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February 1st, 2011 at 6:50:59 PM permalink
Well the dice tables make almost all their money from the sucker bets where the house advantage is huge
sammy55
sammy55
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February 1st, 2011 at 7:00:57 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

"Best" is too subjective. What's true, however, is that you're giving up more to the house on the place bets than a pass bettor is on the line bets, assuming equal wager sizes. You can make subjective arguments about why you like the place bets better, and that's totally fine, but it's simply incorrect that the place bets have a lower house edge than the passline.

What you seem to favor is the immediacy with which you can make (and remove) a place bet, vs. the restrictions placed on line bets. That's a valid procedural complaint, but it's not relevant to the mathematics. If you're at a table with 10x odds, for example, and that table allows put bets, you're always going to be better off making a put bet + odds vs. a place bet. $50 place 5 pays $70, for example, compared to $5 put + $44 odds ($49 total wager) pays $5 + $66 = $71, for $1 less on the bet and $1 more on the win. There's no arguing that the put/odds approach pays better. It turns out that the pass/odds approach has even a lower house edge, but if you prefer not to wait for your point to roll, that's your call. There's nothing wrong with being impatient at the dice table - it'll just cost more money.




Exactly Harrahs near my house has $5 normally and $2 tables 2 days a week with 100X ODDS and they allow Put bets.So i dont do place bets at Harrahs anymore all Put bets.Lowering the HA when you can Put $2 with $200

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