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tuttigym
tuttigym
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January 4th, 2011 at 1:43:34 PM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

Once again, we will try to get second grade math thru your thick skull.

The math does NOT say that there will, on average, be seven losses per 495 decisions. It says that there will, in average, be seven MORE losses THAN wins.

I.E.
251 wins plus 244 losses = 495 decisions.
251 wins minus 244 losses = 7 more losses than wins.


To answer your question: Very small.

However, when phrased correctly: What are the odds of having seven more losses than wins in 495 PL decisions? Very high.



You are wrong again DJ. The 495 decisions are specific to the the way the PL decisions can be made in the total set of PL wagers involving everyway one can win or lose from the natural come out winners to the natural come out losers (craps) to each point resolution. Therefore your I.E. above is absolutely wrong in that it assumes that ANY 495 decisions would produce the so-called HA. So go back to school and get your thicker skull drilled and drained of whatever elements are blocking your ability to see the truth.

tuttigym
tuttigym
tuttigym
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January 4th, 2011 at 1:53:17 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

Quote: DJTeddyBear

However, when phrased correctly: What are the odds of having seven more losses than wins in 495 PL decisions? Very high.


Well, not absolutely. But relatively, that's the most likely outcome.

Similarly, 5 heads and 5 tails in 10 flips is not very likely at 24.6%, but it's the most likely outcome -- all the others possibilities are less likely than that. The moral of the story is that the top of the bell curve doesn't have to be very high, but it's still the top.



I am always puzzeled why smart math people revert to coin flipping which has only two possible outcomes to compare the "odds" and "probabilities" to PL outcomes with 495 possibilities. For me, it is comparing an amoeba to a gorilla. Perhaps you could flip a 495 sided coin and have it land on each side just once. There might be a parallel available there.

tuttigym

p.s. I love the Cardano quote
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
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January 4th, 2011 at 1:57:14 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

You are wrong again DJ.



Nope. Nothing DJ said in his post was incorrect. He said that on average, the pass line will experience seven more losses than wins per 495 decisions. That's a true statement. That doesn't imply there *will be* seven more losses than wins, or even that it's is a likely outcome. but in any collection of 495 pass line outcomes, -7 is the mean (average) outcome. For precisely the same reason, and with precisely the same math, in any collection of 3 coin flips, 1.5 is the mean (average) number of heads.

It would appear that you don't understand what the "mean of a distribution" means, and I suggest you learn it rather than insulting other forum members. It's impossible to have a conversation based on mathematics when the parties don't agree on the validity thereof.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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January 4th, 2011 at 1:58:14 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

Therefore your I.E. above is absolutely wrong in that it assumes that ANY 495 decisions would produce the so-called HA.

Well, I think that's one of the first things you got right.

But let me ask you this about the question I was responding to:
Quote: tuttigym

1. What are the odds of having only seven losses in 495 PL decisions?

Where did you get "seven" and "495" ?
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
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January 4th, 2011 at 2:01:41 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

I am always puzzeled why smart math people revert to coin flipping which has only two possible outcomes to compare the "odds" and "probabilities" to PL outcomes with 495 possibilities. For me, it is comparing an amoeba to a gorilla. Perhaps you could flip a 495 sided coin and have it land on each side just once. There might be a parallel available there.



It's a matter of scale, not of quality. The passline bet is the mathematical equivalent of flipping a fair 495-sided coin with 244 heads and 251 tails, where heads is a winner and tails is a loser (fair means that each side is equally-likely). If you accept that equivalence (do you?) then calculating the house edge for that game is trivial. If you don't accept that equivalence, I'd like to hear why.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
tuttigym
tuttigym
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January 4th, 2011 at 2:05:02 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

"Best" is too subjective. What's true, however, is that you're giving up more to the house on the place bets than a pass bettor is on the line bets, assuming equal wager sizes. You can make subjective arguments about why you like the place bets better, and that's totally fine, but it's simply incorrect that the place bets have a lower house edge than the passline.

What you seem to favor is the immediacy with which you can make (and remove) a place bet, vs. the restrictions placed on line bets. That's a valid procedural complaint, but it's not relevant to the mathematics. If you're at a table with 10x odds, for example, and that table allows put bets, you're always going to be better off making a put bet + odds vs. a place bet. $50 place 5 pays $70, for example, compared to $5 put + $44 odds ($49 total wager) pays $5 + $66 = $71, for $1 less on the bet and $1 more on the win. There's no arguing that the put/odds approach pays better. It turns out that the pass/odds approach has even a lower house edge, but if you prefer not to wait for your point to roll, that's your call. There's nothing wrong with being impatient at the dice table - it'll just cost more money.



I really cannot believe you used the above example to make the case for the PL/FO "pays better" scenario against the Place betting. If you look really close, that $44 odds bet is slightly in excess of 5X the PL wager. Now lets do an apples to whatever and make that put bet $29 ($5 + $24) and compare it to the $30 Place bet.
That 5X put bet yields $41 while the $30 Place bet nets $42. Come on M E you are better than that.

tuttigym
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
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January 4th, 2011 at 2:09:30 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

I really cannot believe you used the above example to make the case for the PL/FO "pays better" scenario against the Place betting. If you look really close, that $44 odds bet is slightly in excess of 5X the PL wager. Now lets do an apples to whatever and make that put bet $29 ($5 + $24) and compare it to the $30 Place bet.
That 5X put bet yields $41 while the $30 Place bet nets $42. Come on M E you are better than that.



Well, you should first re-read my post where I made no mention whatsoever of a 5x table. But your example is illustrative: you compared betting 29 to win 41 vs. 30 to win 42. That's a win of $12 in both cases, but in the put bet case, you're losing one less dollar when you lose. The put bet + odds is still a better wager.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
tuttigym
tuttigym
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January 4th, 2011 at 2:23:16 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

It's a matter of scale, not of quality. The passline bet is the mathematical equivalent of flipping a fair 495-sided coin with 244 heads and 251 tails, where heads is a winner and tails is a loser (fair means that each side is equally-likely). If you accept that equivalence (do you?) then calculating the house edge for that game is trivial. If you don't accept that equivalence, I'd like to hear why.



The 495 sided coin is not a "fair" sided coin in that some of the sides are larger than the others to determine a win or loss just as converting the 10 is less likely to win than converting the 6.

There are folks out there who really believe that if one were to bet $1 for 495 times just on the PL, they would only lose $7. They site the outcome as a statistical "expectation." That is nonsense and promotes real ignorance and huge losses for the any player who buys into the 1.41% HA on PL wagers.

Winning using PL/FO is totally reliant on the "hot" shooter(s) who convert points and/or throws lots of numbers. Those "hot" shooters are few and far between which lead to winning % in the 1 -20% range. For me, winning only 20% of the time is totally unacceptable.

tuttigym
tuttigym
tuttigym
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January 4th, 2011 at 2:30:18 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

Well, you should first re-read my post where I made no mention whatsoever of a 5x table. But your example is illustrative: you compared betting 29 to win 41 vs. 30 to win 42. That's a win of $12 in both cases, but in the put bet case, you're losing one less dollar when you lose. The put bet + odds is still a better wager.



You are absolutely correct and that is why the 5X odds is the plateau one must start from in order to get that "pays better" scenario. If you were to go back and re-read my post regarding the "pays better" PL/FO you could note that I was highly critical of players and "experts" touting the PL/FO at less than 4X.

tuttigym
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
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January 4th, 2011 at 4:01:30 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

You are absolutely correct and that is why the 5X odds is the plateau one must start from in order to get that "pays better" scenario. If you were to go back and re-read my post regarding the "pays better" PL/FO you could note that I was highly critical of players and "experts" touting the PL/FO at less than 4X.


This is also incorrect. You have conflated the pass line with a put bet, but those are not equivalent at all. I was discussing put bets + odds in comparison to place bets. Those are equivalent wagers with different winning/losing amounts, so it makes it easy to compare. The pass line does not win/lose with the same outcomes as any place bet, so it's less straightforward to compare, but using a financial metric, the pass line *always* has a lower house advantage, in dollar terms, than any place bet (with equal wagers).
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563

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