Law Of Large Numbers
December 3rd, 2011 at 3:03:25 PM
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Quote: WizardI'm sure there are a lot of baccarat players would would agree with you. However, don't expect much support for your statement here.
People will say bac is different because you're dealing
down static decks. It is essentially the same as red and
black in roulette, however. Player banker outcomes are
quite random.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
December 3rd, 2011 at 3:09:41 PM
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Quote: thecesspitPlease give me an example relating to a Roulette wheel, or other random number sequence.
By example, do you mean give a demonstration of
how you can look at past results and accurately guess
at a future outcome? I'm just discussing theory here,
demo's are another subject entirely..
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
December 3rd, 2011 at 3:15:27 PM
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Quote: EvenBobBy example, do you mean give a demonstration of
how you can look at past results and accurately guess
at a future outcome? I'm just discussing theory here,
demo's are another subject entirely..
Well, I see little theory here based on a stream of random numbers, so I thought seeing as I am not understanding your theory, I thought a practical example might help.
I'll state it again. -Either- the numbers from a Roulette wheel are random in the classic mathematical meaning OR they are not random by the definition.
Unless I've made a mistake. If I have, fine, point it out.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
December 3rd, 2011 at 3:21:54 PM
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Quote: thecesspitThe Law of Large numbers is EMERGENT from the basic probability of the game. The chicken and egg is here solved.... the low level behaviour came first.
There's no proof of that. It looks like they emerged
at the same time, by Cardano in the middle of the
16th century. Bernoulli later proved it. In any event,
LLN is now the god of probability theory, not the
other way around.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
December 3rd, 2011 at 3:32:35 PM
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Quote: thecesspitI'll state it again. -Either- the numbers from a Roulette wheel are random in the classic mathematical meaning
Of course they're random, everything hinges on them being
pure random. Thats why I won't use numbers spewed by a
computer RNG, they're pseudo random. In the long term
they look the same as pure random. In the short term, where
we use them, they're flawed, if ever so slightly.
Its funny, I use a tool called RX Roulette when I practice,
Sometimes I forget to use imported actual spins for a session
and inadvertantly use the RNG they provide. After awhile I
start to get pissed because I'm making so many mistakes,
and then I realize its the damned RNG I'm using and not
the real thing. Pretty funny.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
December 3rd, 2011 at 3:32:55 PM
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Quote: EvenBobThere's no proof of that. It looks like they emerged
at the same time, by Cardano in the middle of the
16th century. Bernoulli later proved it. In any event,
LLN is now the god of probability theory, not the
other way around.
You misunderstand what I mean.
Not which idea came first, but that one (basic probability systems) can prove the other. The Law of Large Numbers emerges from the axioms of probability maths. You can prove the LLN from the axioms of probability. I am not sure you can prove probability mathematics based on the law of large numbers as an axiom.
It may be one of the more important laws in probability maths, but doesn't mean it's not emergent phenomena from the base.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
December 3rd, 2011 at 3:40:07 PM
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Quote: EvenBobOf course they're random, everything hinges on them being
pure random. Thats why I won't use numbers spewed by a
computer RNG, they're pseudo random. In the long term
they look the same as pure random. In the short term, where
we use them, they're flawed, if ever so slightly.
Its funny, I use a tool called RX Roulette when I practice,
Sometimes I forget to use imported actual spins for a session
and inadvertantly use the RNG they provide. After awhile I
start to get pissed because I'm making so many mistakes,
and then I realize its the damned RNG I'm using and not
the real thing. Pretty funny.
They cannot be pure random and show the effect you are theorizing about. You need to point out to me where my argument is flawed. A true stream of random numbers must be independent of one another, or they ARE NOT RANDOM. It's really that simple. If you can see a short term effect, THEY ARE NOT PURE RANDOM numbers. That is my statement, my core argument. Without evidence/argument to the contrary, this whole thing is pointless.
Isn't it more likely that there's actually a subtle effect in the real roulette numbers that makes them less random that you don't see in a Random number generator?
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
December 3rd, 2011 at 3:48:29 PM
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Quote: thecesspitthe axioms of probability maths.
Probability 'theory' is a squishy subject. Probability
math kinda sorta works, but there are no probability
laws, per se. They seem to invent a new offshoot
of probability every other year. One of the more
recent ones, Imprecise Probability, didn't get named
till the 90's.
IP
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
December 3rd, 2011 at 3:56:33 PM
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Quote: thecesspitA true stream of random numbers must be independent of one another, or they ARE NOT RANDOM.
They are completely independent of each other, thats
why they're so reliable to use. Thats why probability
works on them, because of their complete indepencence.
Computer RNG's produce non independent outcomes too
often, they are uneliable. They're fine for something crude
like a slot machine, but they're flawed for accurate
probability work. An example here would only be confusing,
it would be meaningless. The outcomes have to be true
random or they won't work.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
December 3rd, 2011 at 4:10:30 PM
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Quote: EvenBobProbability 'theory' is a squishy subject. Probability
math kinda sorta works, but there are no probability
laws, per se. They seem to invent a new offshoot
of probability every other year. One of the more
recent ones, Imprecise Probability, didn't get named
till the 90's.
IP
Did you actually read the article? Did you understand what it is talking about? Or just seeing the word "probability" in the title was enough for you?
I am not sure what you refer to as "laws", it is more common to use terminology of axioms and theorems. Like any non-trivial and self-consistent axiomatic theory, probability contains an infinite number of theorems, provable on a finite axiom base. Law of large numbers is but one of those theorems.
There is nothing "squishy" about probability theory. It is a closed, self-consistent formal theory, much like calculus, algebra or games theory. Among other things, much if not most of contemporary physics could not be formulated without probability.
"When two people always agree one of them is unnecessary"
December 3rd, 2011 at 4:23:48 PM
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Quote: weaselmanDid you actually read the article? >>There is nothing "squishy" about probability theory.
Read it half a dozen times in the last week. And
PT is squishy. Thats why probabilists are always
fighting with each other.
"It is unanimously agreed that statistics depends on probability. But, as to what probability is and how it is connected with statistics, there has seldom been such complete disagreement and breakdown of communication since the Tower of Babel." Wikipedia.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
December 3rd, 2011 at 4:29:02 PM
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Quote: EvenBob
"It is unanimously agreed that statistics depends on probability. But, as to what probability is and how it is connected with statistics, there has seldom been such complete disagreement and breakdown of communication since the Tower of Babel." Wikipedia.
I'll add the last sentence of the quote, you omitted, I am sure, accidentally ...
Doubtless, much of the disagreement is merely terminological and would disappear under sufficiently sharp analysis.
This particular phrase belongs, I think, to Leonard Savage, who was more of an economist than a mathematician. He wrote a book "Foundation of Statistics", where he suggested what he called "subjective probability" (or, perhaps, "personal probability" - I don't remember exactly) as a substitute for the formal measure-theoretical interpretation.
The disagreement he refers to in this statement is the terminological disagreement between mathematicians, statisticians, economists, engineers and philosophers, who use a number of identical terms (probability, frequency, objective, physical etc.) to mean quite different things.
As long as we talk about mathematical theory of probability and mathematical statistics, none of this applies at all. There is nothing "squishy" or ambiguous about those theories.
"When two people always agree one of them is unnecessary"
December 3rd, 2011 at 4:47:48 PM
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Quote: weaselmanit does not make it any more believable or give it any more weight than your (quite weightless lately) own posts.
Uh Huh, if you can't dispute the message, kill
the messenger. In this case, Wiki. I happen to
read a lot of probability articles, and I see constant
bickering and disagreement. Don't you find that
odd for a 'science' that you say is so precise and
accurate? Its squishy, thats the perfect word to
describe it.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
December 3rd, 2011 at 5:01:06 PM
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Quote: EvenBobUh Huh, if you can't dispute the message, kill
the messenger. In this case Wiki
I am not disputing the message, just your interpretation of it.
The message was incomplete (I just added the missing sentence above in my earlier post, probably, after you posted yours), which, probably has contributed to your wrong interpretation.
Nothing is wrong with wiki as it turns out, just your inability to cut and paste properly (unless, you actually truncated the quote on purpose, which I don't want to believe).
Quote:I happen to
read a lot of probability articles, and I see constant
bickering and disagreement. Don't you find that
odd for a 'science' that you say is so precise and
accurate?
No, not at all. The same is going on with cosmology, special relativity, genetics, paleo-biology etc., etc., even the Super-String theory.
What's common between those fields, is that their are very highly popularized, and described at "layman level", making them look simple enough for a layman to actually believe that he understands. It takes one sentence, by somebody, not very competent in the field, or even, by someone competent enough, but not very good at written language, to fuel months if not years of "bickering and disagreements" in the "popular-science" circles.
Did you notice by any chance how much fewer "bickering" and "disagreement" is out there about, say, General Relativity, which is totally and completely based on its Special cousin?
Or, back to the probabilities, would you say you are noticing more disagreement in the discreet case (combinatorics, binomial trials etc.) or in the continuum or transfinite applications?
"When two people always agree one of them is unnecessary"
December 3rd, 2011 at 5:07:11 PM
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Quote: weaselmanI can dispute the message.
It doesn't matter, whats relevant to me is, no math,
no probability, governs the next outcome of
random numbers. All you know is what will 'probably'
happen 'eventually'. Up until that eventuality, you
can drive a truck thru the lack of knowledge about the
next spin, its that imprecise.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
December 3rd, 2011 at 5:08:55 PM
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Quote: EvenBobIt doesn't matter, whats relevant to me is, no math,
no probability, governs the next outcome of
random numbers.
This is actually true. It is physics (not the scientific field, but the laws of nature) that governs the outcome in case of roulette. Math just tells us quantitatively which outcomes are more or less likely than others. But so what?
Perhaps, it's time to end the suspense and reveal the answer to the question you started your thread with - where are you going with this?
"When two people always agree one of them is unnecessary"
December 3rd, 2011 at 5:32:24 PM
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Quote: weaselmanThis is actually true. It is physics (not the scientific field, but the laws of nature) that governs the outcome in case of roulette.
Thats why its important that the wheel is unbiased
and produces true random results.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
December 3rd, 2011 at 5:54:33 PM
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Quote: EvenBobThats why its important that the wheel is unbiased and produces true random results.
Well, yeah ... In general, given a game with some stated rules, it is important that it is played according to those rules.
But that's not "why". In fact, I don't see anything whatsoever this statement has to do specifically with either roulette or statistics or with anything at all mentioned in this thread earlier.
"When two people always agree one of them is unnecessary"
December 3rd, 2011 at 6:11:34 PM
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Quote: weaselmanI don't see anything whatsoever this statement has to do specifically with either roulette or statistics
Only truly independent outcomes are accurate enough
to work with.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
December 3rd, 2011 at 6:32:07 PM
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Quote: EvenBobOnly truly independent outcomes are accurate enough
to work with.
Truly independent outcomes contain no information(*). If they do, they are not truly independent.
Here's a thought experiment :
Say you have a way of looking at a stream of random data from a wheel and making better than average guess at the next spin, so that you can beat the house edge.
Randomness means I should be able to rearrange that stream of data (shuffle it) and there is no difference. In fact, I should be able to take every fifith sample and present it. In fact, I could take (truly) random samples from the stream and present it as a new stream. None of those streams are any different in the data type if they are random.
Would the method still be valid? If the method exists, and the data is truly random, it should do. I've changed nothing in terms of the data.
(*) I'm not 100% sure that is true. The information they may contain is that they look random... and that's information...
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
December 3rd, 2011 at 6:58:21 PM
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Quote: thecesspitWould the method still be valid? If the method exists, and the data is truly random, it should do. I've changed nothing in terms of the data.
Its valid and I've proved it. I've taken spins from
3 different wheels at the same time. 1 from wheel
A, the next one from wheel B, and so on, till I have
a string of random outcomes. The results are the
same as if I took them from a single wheel.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
December 3rd, 2011 at 7:05:49 PM
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Where you predicting against wheel A, B or C? I assume by results you are saying "ability to predict future spins does not change'?
So you don't care even what order the random stream comes to you either (as per my example) or which data you are given from where?
Does that mean you could get a random stream from wheel A and use that for wheel C?
So you don't care even what order the random stream comes to you either (as per my example) or which data you are given from where?
Does that mean you could get a random stream from wheel A and use that for wheel C?
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
December 3rd, 2011 at 7:32:01 PM
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I picked one of the wheels and stuck with
it. It worked OK, not as good as using the
actuals from just one wheel. It was kind of
spooky, actually. But it had to work, or I
would have really been at a loss for an
explanation.
it. It worked OK, not as good as using the
actuals from just one wheel. It was kind of
spooky, actually. But it had to work, or I
would have really been at a loss for an
explanation.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
December 4th, 2011 at 1:39:50 AM
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Quote: TheNightflyOk, let's say the bag has 38 balls of which 20 are red and 18 are blue. The guy betting on red still has over a 5% advantage. What's your point? There's no way of knowing what ball he'll pull but you'd have to be a pretty big moron to bet on blue.
How about assuming 18 black balls, 18 red balls, and 2 green balls? Then you'd really be a moron to bet on blue. (LOL)
December 4th, 2011 at 9:09:51 AM
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Quote: EvenBobOnly truly independent outcomes are accurate enough
to work with.
This is a short unqualified statement, and, like most such statements, it is completely meaningless.
To actually convey some meaning, you would have to qualify what you mean by "truly", by "independent", and by "accurate", and also explain what kind of "work" you are planning on doing with these outcomes, and what kind of result you expect to get.
For example, if you are using the word "independent" in the common statistical sense, requiring the random outcomes to be independent on each other, by "work" you mean performing some kind of (presumably, arithmetical) operations on the numbers, representing past outcomes, and the result you are expecting is being able to predict future outcomes with better than expected frequency, then your original statement is false.
Note, that it may be possible to predict future outcomes by analyzing past history whether they are "truly independent" (e.g., biased wheel), or not (e.g. red always hits after black). So, as long as by "work" you mean "devising a method of predicting future results", the ability to do that work has absolutely nothing to do with results being independent (of each other).
Not also, that, contrary to common belief, modern software RNGs, with an exception of a few simplest ones, actually produce random numbers, that are statistically independent of each other. There are various sources of entropy that can be used to achieve that - such as hard drive movements, network noise, cpu clock and temperature etc.
Quote: EvenBobBut it had to work, or I
would have really been at a loss for an
explanation.
Are you saying that you are not at a loss as it is? In other words, you seem to be suggesting that you actually have an explanation for your "method". If so, that's just great! What are you waiting for? Let's hear it!
"When two people always agree one of them is unnecessary"
December 4th, 2011 at 9:35:56 AM
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Quote: EvenBobThere are no laws or theories that apply to short term play. The casino can
lump all the players together and get a long term number. On a player
to player basis, however, they're lost. Nothing can apply to the next bet
you make in a game of random outcomes.
In case it hasn't yet been pointed out, this is incorrect. The math for short-term and long-term results in a game of independent trials is exactly the same. The multinomial distribution describes games like roulette and it holds for any value of n (number of trials).
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
December 4th, 2011 at 10:00:56 AM
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For all those trying to convince Bob of the obvious, remember your success with convincing Jerry Logan. The result here will be the same.
December 4th, 2011 at 11:38:48 AM
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Why is it that the less someone knows about math, the more certain they are that everyone else with more knowledge is wrong?
Like Jerry Logan and Evenbob, John Patrick is also a good example.
Like Jerry Logan and Evenbob, John Patrick is also a good example.
December 4th, 2011 at 11:50:24 AM
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deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
December 4th, 2011 at 12:52:43 PM
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Quote: weaselmanqualify what you mean by "truly", by "independent",
Coming from an unbiased real wheel.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
December 4th, 2011 at 12:57:46 PM
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Quote: MathExtremistThe math for short-term and long-term results in a game of independent trials is exactly the same.
So what will the next spin be, red or black? I can
figure out what the approximate distribution will
be for the next 10,000 but they won't let me bet
on that. Whats the math that accurately predicts
the next spin.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
December 4th, 2011 at 1:23:35 PM
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I can tell you the approximate distribution will be for the next spin as well.
You CAN bet on the next 10,000 spins and the approximate distribution if you so wish. Just means you gotta stand there for a LOOOONG time.
You CAN bet on the next 10,000 spins and the approximate distribution if you so wish. Just means you gotta stand there for a LOOOONG time.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
December 4th, 2011 at 5:20:03 PM
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Quote: EvenBobComing from an unbiased real wheel.
You are wrong.
"When two people always agree one of them is unnecessary"
December 4th, 2011 at 8:06:55 PM
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Quote: weaselmanYou are wrong.
You don't think an unbiased wheel produces
independent outcomes?
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
December 5th, 2011 at 5:31:21 AM
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Quote: EvenBobYou don't think an unbiased wheel produces
independent outcomes?
I do. I also think, that a biased wheel produces independent outcomes.
But you still have not explained what it is you want to do with those outcomes to begin with, so, I don't really know what it has to do with anything.
"When two people always agree one of them is unnecessary"
December 5th, 2011 at 8:17:52 AM
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Quote: EvenBobSo what will the next spin be, red or black? I can
figure out what the approximate distribution will
be for the next 10,000 but they won't let me bet
on that. Whats the math that accurately predicts
the next spin.
Yet quite counter-intuitively, your alleged ability to figure out the approximate distribution of the next 10,000 outcomes will actually be less accurate, on an absolute basis, than your prediction of the next single outcome. How many reds will appear in the next 10,000 outcomes? The expected number is 4737, yet the chances of there being between 4736 to 4738 reds is very low. In a single spin, the chances of there being 0 or 1 reds is 100%.
Richard A. Epstein, in "The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic", puts it quite elegantly:
"The law of large numbers has frequently been cited as the guarantor of an eventual head-tail balance. Actually, in colloquial form, the law proclaims that the difference between the number of heads and the number of tails thrown may be expected to increase indefinitely as the number of trials increases, although by decreasing proportions." (p. 28, emphasis mine)
And the casino will absolutely let you bet on 10,000 spins. Since all of them are independent, it doesn't matter whether you bet sequentially or simultaneously. And again, due to independence, the casino doesn't need to change its per-spin payout odds.
As before, the "math that accurately predicts the next spin" is the same math that is used to describe the aggregation of results. If you're looking at a specific bet and its chances of winning then the problem decomposes into a Bernoulli trial. For "red", p(win)=18/38.
Here's the real question. Since it seems that 18/38 isn't accurate enough for you for a single trial, why should it be an acceptable figure to use as the basis for your 10,000 trial analysis?
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
December 5th, 2011 at 12:11:50 PM
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Quote: MathExtremist
And the casino will absolutely let you bet on 10,000 spins.
Good grief. I'd forgotten what its like having discussions with
math people. They take everything literally and always miss
the nuance.
Never mind...
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
December 5th, 2011 at 12:29:21 PM
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Quote: EvenBobGood grief. I'd forgotten what its like having discussions with
math people. They take everything literally and always miss
the nuance.
Never mind...
You are the only person here, math-orientated or otherwise, who perceives any nuance at all in the question...
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
December 5th, 2011 at 12:31:49 PM
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Evenbob,
Perahps you should try the John Patrick forum.
On that forum they don't worry about the facts, the math, or proof. They instead, believe in following feelings, nuance, hunches, folklore, superstition, and mysticism.
Perahps you should try the John Patrick forum.
On that forum they don't worry about the facts, the math, or proof. They instead, believe in following feelings, nuance, hunches, folklore, superstition, and mysticism.
December 5th, 2011 at 1:29:00 PM
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Quote: EvenBobGood grief. I'd forgotten what its like having discussions with
math people. They take everything literally and always miss
the nuance.
Never mind...
The nuance that's missing here is your understanding of variance. The only difference between a single random trial and a lot of independent random trials is the variance for a large aggregation is smaller, relatively speaking, than for a single outcome. The issue you need to resolve is that you *think*, for whatever reason, that there should be some way to predict short-term results because the long-term results seem predictable to you. That's your error, because the same math that describes the unpredictability of the short term is what also describes the relative predictability of the longer term. If it didn't, lots of things would be broken.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
December 5th, 2011 at 1:34:14 PM
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I think EvenBob should have entered Randi's million dollar challenge.(**) Being able to predict the results of a roulette wheel better than guessing by observing the spins of three roulette wheels over time is an extraordinary claim :: that there is information in a random sequence of numbers that can be used to help predict a future number. I'm sure you can define that better, but you get the general idea.
As you never go for independent testing (*), I wonder why you waste your time starting down these conversational routes. They always end up the same place : you claim a method that works for you, everyone says what you claim is not possible, and you say "well it is, I've tested it, it works, believe me".
(*) I understand the logic you use behind that.
(**) You can't any more, they've taken the money for other work in the skeptical community. But maybe someone else out there is offering such a prize.
As you never go for independent testing (*), I wonder why you waste your time starting down these conversational routes. They always end up the same place : you claim a method that works for you, everyone says what you claim is not possible, and you say "well it is, I've tested it, it works, believe me".
(*) I understand the logic you use behind that.
(**) You can't any more, they've taken the money for other work in the skeptical community. But maybe someone else out there is offering such a prize.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
December 5th, 2011 at 1:59:14 PM
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The Randi challenge was not about probability,
it was about psychic ability. He would never let
somebody stand by a wheel, writing down the
results, thats against everything he stands for.
it was about psychic ability. He would never let
somebody stand by a wheel, writing down the
results, thats against everything he stands for.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
December 5th, 2011 at 2:31:17 PM
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Quote: EvenBobThe Randi challenge was not about probability,
it was about psychic ability. He would never let
somebody stand by a wheel, writing down the
results, thats against everything he stands for.
I'm betting he's smart enough to know that it wouldn't help you...
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
December 5th, 2011 at 2:36:06 PM
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Actually, it seems it is still live and looks for :
"Webster’s Online Dictionary defines “paranormal” as “not scientifically explainable; supernatural.”
http://www.randi.org/site/index.php/1m-challenge.html
"Webster’s Online Dictionary defines “paranormal” as “not scientifically explainable; supernatural.”
http://www.randi.org/site/index.php/1m-challenge.html
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
December 5th, 2011 at 3:49:26 PM
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Quote: rdw4potusI'm betting he's smart enough to know that it wouldn't help you...
Sigh. I've had this stupid conversation a dozen times
in the last 5 years. Randi is NOT looking for AP casino
players! He's looking for paranormal activity, mind readers,
fortune tellers. He could care less about card counting
or how to beat any casino game legitimately.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
December 5th, 2011 at 5:43:27 PM
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Quote: EvenBobHe's looking for paranormal activity, mind readers,
fortune tellers. He could care less about card counting
or how to beat any casino game legitimately.
I am sure you are mistaken, try contacting him, he'll be very interested.
As it has been pointed out earlier, "paranormal" means "unexplained by science", which is exactly what your method is.
Just contact him, and explain that you are able to predict outcomes of roulette wheel spins based on the past history (from a different wheel(!)). He'll be all over you!
"When two people always agree one of them is unnecessary"
December 5th, 2011 at 5:58:21 PM
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Quote: weaselmanwhich is exactly what your method is
What is my method, exactly. Oh yeah, probability. You
think Randi wants AP casino folks bothering him, go
right ahead. You don't have a clue.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
December 5th, 2011 at 6:06:27 PM
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Quote: EvenBobYou
think Randi wants AP casino folks bothering him, go
right ahead.
No, I don't think he wants that. I also do not think that you are that.
I think, he'll love you. Why? See previous post.
"When two people always agree one of them is unnecessary"
December 5th, 2011 at 6:10:09 PM
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Quote: weaselmanNo, I don't think he wants that. I also do not think that you are that.
I think, he'll love you. Why? See previous post.
Like I said, I've dealt with the shear stupidity of
this for years. He's not going to test people who
beat casino games by using probability. Why in
the hell would he.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
December 5th, 2011 at 7:03:49 PM
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Quote: EvenBobHe's not going to test people who
beat casino games by using probability. Why in
the hell would he.
Because it is paranormal. That's what he does.
"When two people always agree one of them is unnecessary"
