Nareed
Joined: Nov 11, 2009
• Posts: 11413
November 20th, 2009 at 7:54:51 AM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

Sure, make plenty of money at the craps tables, and you'll soon get marked as a control shooter and won't be able to get near a craps table. So sell those books & DVDs instead.
[..]
If you're a control shooter, having people who 'look' like control shooters takes some of the spotlight off of you, so you can get longer rolls in before the casino gets suspicious.

That still doesn't sound quite right. I mean, if it were me with the means of reducing the odds for a seven, I'd teach it, privately, to a few people and set up a team. That way you have your people who look like control shooters and keep better control over the profitable method.

I still think a controlled experiment would settle things. Prefferably one where the identities of the shooters remain anonymous. The problem is getting a craps table and convincing the dice controllers to take part.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
boymimbo
Joined: Nov 12, 2009
• Posts: 5994
November 20th, 2009 at 9:47:26 AM permalink
I play alot of craps at alot of places, and I've only seen the casino push on a dice setter once. The greatest demand that all casinos make is that both dice *must* hit the back wall.

Because the dice must hit the back wall, and you are throwing the dice from at least six feet away, the odds of making a controlled throw are greatly reduced. It's absolutely possible that you can throw the dice on axis, with little or no spin. I have little doubt that once the dice land, you can safely say that a dice setter could confidently predict the numbers that hit, on landing. The problem is that the dice then bounce, then hit the back wall, where the dice then get affected by the material on the wall (which is designed to give spin to the dice). This randomness is difficult to overcome, but certainly not impossible.

What makes this so mystical is that the math shows that even if you could reduce the number of 7s you roll from 100 to 90 every 600 rolls, the player advantage would be between 5.9 and 7.1% depending on the dice set used.

But this sounds easy. And you might be able to prove it to yourself that you are doing it. But the probability of throwing 90 or fewer sevens (or 110 or more rolls) in 600 rolls is 14.9% anyway so you might just be the one in seven people who are just lucky.

I think that the sample size to prove that you are special should be a point where you are in the 5% percentile. The sample size for this would be 1400 rolls with you throwing a seven 210 times or less. Even still, with 12 people around the craps table, there is still a good chance that one of them just happens to be that lucky, but it's just as likely that one of them is just that unlucky.
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