Question About Cheating
I cannot have even the slightest thought of improper action by my Staff. Games, rules and decisions have to be 100% above reproach. The dealer did not intend to make this mistake, but we can't even have dealers or players think this was a possibilty.
ZCore13
Quote: Mission146I would be surprised if there weren't more than three. I haven't played as much Craps as most of the people on here, and I have personally rolled three Midnights in a row, considerably less likely than three Yo's in a row.
I agree. Anecdotally, I have only played a few times for a total of maybe ten hours, and I've rolled three straight yos.
A trial consisting of three rolls will be three yos with probability 1/5832. Keep in mind that if we're calculating the chance of seeing this happen when we're playing, we don't actually need three rolls per trial since if we roll a non-11, we start a new trial with the very next roll, so the average trial length is pretty close to 1. Within a given session, you're going to have a lot of trials.
So if you play a few hundred rolls, it's a long shot, but you do have a realistic chance of seeing three straight. It's unlikely, but not THAT unlikely. I just calculated that the probability of seeing three yos at least once in 500 trials is a little more than 8%. For 3000 trials, it's over 40%. For 9000 trials, it's over 78%.
Therefore, I'd guess most long-time craps players have seen three straight yos.
Eighteen straight, however, is in another stratosphere. It's on the order of 10^-22, about 1 in 39,000,000,000,000,000,000,000. I don't believe it has ever happened. I also agree with Axel that the dice would likely get changed well before eighteen straight.
For my earlier 500, 3000, 9000 trials numbers, the chance of seeing three straight midnights at some point is about 1%, 6%, and 17% respectively.
Quote: Mission146I would be surprised if there weren't more than three. I haven't played as much Craps as most of the people on here, and I have personally rolled three Midnights in a row, considerably less likely than three Yo's in a row.
My guess on the 18 yo's is that there were probably quite a few, but still short of 10, while there were other rolls of other numbers in between - this became forgotten in the re-telling, and the number of yo's probably grew too.
It's even as likely as not that Mission's memory almost immediately forgot a 3-craps or yo or whatever that inserted itself into the 3 in a row.
Quote: Mission146It was easy for me to remember because I always bet the, 'Any Craps,' on the CO for a buck, even though I am not supposed to, and I double the Any Crap bet when one of them hits. In this particular instance, I had rolled an Acey-Deucey followed by three consecutive Midnights. It's worth a buck to me on a negative expectation game, anyway, makes it more fun. I don't play much and I HATE losing $5 on the CO, EVER, even though it makes even less sense to lose $1 on 32/36 CO rolls...not counting the 7 and Yo winners, still lose the, 'Any Craps.'
now, if you had said you parlayed the bets, that would ended any doubt. As it stands, the chances of 3 midnights in a row would have been 1 in 46656. If we can say there is only one chance in 10,000 your memory could be failing you ... well, see prediction LOL
Quote: Zcore13This just happened at my place a few days ago. Dealer thought a player had a Straight Flush in a poker varnival game. Paid the player $750. The player than tipped $100, most likely because he knew he didn't deserve the money. 7 minutes later Surveillance calls and tells Supervisor about mistake. We explain and ask player for $650 back and he agrees. Then at the end of the night, with explanation, we remove $100 from the pooled tips and return it to the table tray.
I cannot have even the slightest thought of improper action by my Staff. Games, rules and decisions have to be 100% above reproach. The dealer did not intend to make this mistake, but we can't even have dealers or players think this was a possibilty.
ZCore13
Shouldn't the $750 pay off have been verified by a pit boss? Or did the PB get it wrong too?
Quote: AcesAndEightsShouldn't the $750 pay off have been verified by a pit boss? Or did the PB get it wrong too?
Both the Dealer and the Supervisor blew it. Both now understand the seriousness of such a mistake.
ZCore13
Quote: PaigowdanIf the dealers were clearly innocent, no.
But this would be hard for the dealers to explain, as they protect the game. If loaded dice appeared in a crap game, and this was revealed, the dealers would probably be assumed to be in collusion with such an event.
While I understand why there might be suspicion of collusion, isn't it possible that a skilled dice cheat / mechanic, operating alone, could substitute loaded dice, take a few winning rolls, then substitute the house dice back in, with no one the wiser?
If the loaded dice are still out there and he makes a point, just say "same dice."
The cheater would be unmasked if one or both of the dice bounce off the table, as the box would check the dice numbers as a matter of course before returning them to the game.
Quote: Zcore13Both the Dealer and the Supervisor blew it. Both now understand the seriousness of such a mistake.
ZCore13
Can I ask how they screwed this up? Did they pay a QKA23 "wraparound" SF?
Quote: AcesAndEightsShouldn't the $750 pay off have been verified by a pit boss? Or did the PB get it wrong too?
I've had a dealer and a PC blow a buy in and give me an extra $100.
