Fml blew out a major portion of bankroll
June 13th, 2014 at 6:41:54 PM
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Talk about running bad I caught a dealer flashing her card when checking for blackjack. 3rd time in my life knew it wouldn't last that long I ran to a casino where I had a box in the poker room ran back and lost 15k in blackjack even with knowing the dealer. Cards fml fml fml
The bet will not be paid- not now not ever
June 13th, 2014 at 6:52:39 PM
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Quote: strictlyAPTalk about running bad I caught a dealer flashing her card when checking for blackjack. 3rd time in my life knew it wouldn't last that long I ran to a casino where I had a box in the poker room ran back and lost 15k in blackjack even with knowing the dealer. Cards fml fml fml
How much were you betting per hand?
June 13th, 2014 at 7:03:20 PM
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150-300
The bet will not be paid- not now not ever
June 13th, 2014 at 7:08:53 PM
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Before the bankroll management comments start I'm fully aware that I need more to bet those units but this is an exception to br management all those things don't apply in things like this - same as someone offering me to take their double on a 5k blackjack hand clearly I'm not bankrolled for 5k a hand but at a huge edge like this most would agree to chance it
The bet will not be paid- not now not ever
June 13th, 2014 at 7:09:02 PM
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Wow, that sucks.
June 13th, 2014 at 7:23:13 PM
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Yup. Could not do anything right prolly just karma. Double 10 into a face cause dealer had a 6 next card 4. Next card 5 if I play nirmal I win Becuase after that was a ten instead I get crushed
The bet will not be paid- not now not ever
June 13th, 2014 at 7:25:42 PM
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deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
June 13th, 2014 at 7:25:46 PM
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Quote: AxiomOfChoiceWow, that sucks.
What really sucks is this is at least twice he's done this in 18 months.
But how much of an edge is this? She's only flashing her card when she checks for BJ? But if the max bet was $300, that definitely does suck.
June 13th, 2014 at 7:30:11 PM
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Yea I know you would think I would have learned my lesson. Max bet was three hundred but def doubled more then normal so 600 bets. But just ran like absolute hell I had a much longer run last time. Same dealer but she hasn't been in blackjack in ages guessing someone called out- her nails to long and she picks up top of card when she slides to check for bj
The bet will not be paid- not now not ever
June 13th, 2014 at 7:31:10 PM
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She lifts the tip of her fingers under the top of card when sliding it into the slider. It's a sleepy casino
The bet will not be paid- not now not ever
June 13th, 2014 at 9:52:22 PM
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If you're getting the info only 5/13 of the time, might have an occasional misread, no spread, and may or may not know perfect hc strategy how "huge" of an edge do you think you really had? Sucks you ran horribad, but I do think bankroll considerations apply when the edge is less than 5% here, it's not like knowing your getting an ace to start your hand edge.
June 13th, 2014 at 9:58:16 PM
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This doesn't seem much of an edge, considering she would only check with a ten. Maybe if she fudged up tucking the second card underneath and you could see paint or pips it might have been good.
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
June 14th, 2014 at 1:16:49 AM
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Quote: djatcThis doesn't seem much of an edge, considering she would only check with a ten. Maybe if she fudged up tucking the second card underneath and you could see paint or pips it might have been good.
Without taking the time to do any math, I would guess that the overall edge is around 2%. I'm not sure exactly what it is because I'm not sure how much the hole card edge is biased towards different upcards (ie, you can't just multiply it by 5/13). Maybe teliot will write a blog post about it.
You can reduce swings a bit by counting as well as hole-carding -- a TC of -4 will wipe out a 2% edge, which is not that uncommon of a situation.
I consider this a healthy edge, but you don't want to overbet your bankroll, of course. The Kelly Criterion always applies.
June 14th, 2014 at 12:44:24 PM
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Quote: AxiomOfChoice
I consider this a healthy edge, but you don't want to overbet your bankroll, of course. The Kelly Criterion always applies.
Overbetting is ok if the edge is huge and the hit frequency is pretty high. For example if you were to have your machine "salted" after a taxable playing a $100 video poker machine would make a lot of sense since you'd only need to hit 3oak to lock it up on a non wild game. I don't know the math off the top of my head but adding 5 units to every pay except 2 pair and high pair would be huge.
EDIT: 7/5 jacks would become 8/6 jacks with a healthy 7.3% edge.
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
June 14th, 2014 at 2:42:55 PM
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Quote: djatcOverbetting is ok if the edge is huge and the hit frequency is pretty high. For example if you were to have your machine "salted" after a taxable playing a $100 video poker machine would make a lot of sense since you'd only need to hit 3oak to lock it up on a non wild game. I don't know the math off the top of my head but adding 5 units to every pay except 2 pair and high pair would be huge.
EDIT: 7/5 jacks would become 8/6 jacks with a healthy 7.3% edge.
Overbetting is never ok. If the edge is huge and the hit frequency is high, then the amount that you can bet goes up. But that is not overbetting. The Kelly Criterion always applies to find out how much you should bet.
Betting more than Kelly is ok if it's necessary to play -- although betting exactly Kelly is better, betting (for example) 1.5x Kelly is better than not playing if those are your only 2 choices. Betting more than 2x Kelly leads to disaster, though -- it's better not to play.
June 14th, 2014 at 4:15:36 PM
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I've never heard this before. Can you say more?Quote: AxiomOfChoicebetting (for example) 1.5x Kelly is better than not playing if those are your only 2 choices. Betting more than 2x Kelly leads to disaster, though -- it's better not to play.
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June 14th, 2014 at 5:03:20 PM
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You are probably right I thought I had a bigger edge then what I did guess I was hoping for something along the lines if what happened at a Florida casino when they got double exposure and the chain of tables was bj bj double exposure bj dealer didn't realize push was loss and I got a solid two rounds of dealing with that wdge
The bet will not be paid- not now not ever
June 14th, 2014 at 6:03:20 PM
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Quote: teliotI've never heard this before. Can you say more?
It's well-known that bankroll growth is optimized by using the Kelly fraction to size your bets.
My understanding was that bankroll growth was also symmetrical around this point, ie, for a given bankroll B, if your optimal bet is f * B (f is the Kelly fraction) then it was also true that betting (f - x) * B had the same long-term expectation as betting (f + x) * B. So betting 2f * B has 0 long-term growth, and betting > 2f * B has negative long-term growth, ie, 100% RoR.
Didn't Wong publish this? I thought that he did but I can't find it. Am I wrong here? Should be easy to verify.
June 14th, 2014 at 6:50:13 PM
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here is a Kelly calculator. This may help...I use the Kelly Criterion when sports betting, I assume this is where the "2% rule" comes from...
http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/kelly-calculator/
http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/kelly-calculator/
June 15th, 2014 at 12:44:12 AM
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Quote: teliotI've never heard this before. Can you say more?
Just calculate CEV (certainty equivalent value) which is CEV = exp(<log(B+X)>)-B, where B is your bankroll, X is the random variable outcome of your bet to make, and <.> is the expectation value.
CEV is (over the full positive bet range) maximal for a Kelly criterion bet size. However if that bet size is not available, one should maximize CEV over the available left range of bets.
CEV turns negative for bets roughly twice the Kelly bet. In the extreme case, where only twice a Kelly bet (or larger) or not playing is an option, you would not want to play as CEV=0 for not playing. If 1.5 x Kelly bet is available but Kelly bet (or less) isn't, you should still play it. It is not "overbetting" in the technical sense, because you still maximize CEV.
