AcesAndEights
AcesAndEights
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December 3rd, 2013 at 6:57:02 AM permalink
Decided to split off to a new thread, not to derail Nareed's hate of The Cloude...
Quote: beachbumbabs

Love it in concept, hate it in practice. I have no doubt the FAA is hating it, too. Ultralights, RC's, gyrocopters, all that low-altitude stuff was no end of headaches, and several friends were killed in them, too. And how do these things not land on someone's head? What happens when they hit a bird? 1, theorhetically, yes. 100, no, especially when Amazon fulfillment center #29 is no longer the only airborne delivery service. Free commerce and all that, can't give any one company a monopoly running back and forth from hub to delivery points.

Not saying these are unsolvable problems. Just that it'll be a lot longer than they think to get it up and running, and some serious questions before then.



I offered up a bet on another forum. I believe that Amazon will have a functional prototype of this delivery drone working in at least a closed beta by the end of 2017. Now, I didn't get down to specific terms yet at that forum, but I have started thinking about them. One of the terms is that it can happen in any country, not just the US. So the regulatory burden might be lighter in another country; but at the same time, they will probably be proactively trying to stay within whatever the eventual FAA regulations are, so they can launch in the US ASAP.

Anyway, if anyone wants to bet even money against me, bring it on. Or propose a different betting line or a different date, and I will consider it.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
zippyboy
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December 3rd, 2013 at 7:16:53 AM permalink
I see an increase in inner-city folks shooting them out of the sky to steal whatever 5-pound goodies they carry. The more medications they find, the more it'll happen till Amazon discontinues the delivery method.
"Poker sure is an easy game to beat if you have the roll to keep rebuying."
1BB
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December 3rd, 2013 at 7:26:55 AM permalink
Senator Ed Markey (D-MA) saw 60 Minutes and is already on it. He wants to set clear rules on these things to protect the privacy and safety of the public.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
FleaStiff
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December 3rd, 2013 at 8:18:36 AM permalink
The money is BIG. Other countries are not protecting all their airspace to keep drones out of private hands. Other countries are making great strides in drones.

Agricultural surveillance, pipeline surveillance, mapping, Search And Rescue (wilderness and Suburban), photography, real estate development, mineral prospecting... fortunes are being made elsewhere while the FAA tells American firms to go twiddle their thumbs.

(Brought over from Cloud Thread)....

Note: Mostly the GPS systems are trusted... so they process the strongest signal they receive and are easily duped by a rogue signal. It was already done with a Super Luxury yacht. The crew did not realize they were off course .... but it was an experiment approved by the owner of the yacht.

Oh, an electric helicopter was introduced.... silently watching to swoop down and deliver your package from Amazon.
KeyserSoze
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December 3rd, 2013 at 10:58:02 AM permalink
I saw the 60 minutes piece. I seriously doubt the drones will ever be used as delivery vehicles. I imagine Amazon will find a better way to use this technology, though.

Bezos is a very smart dude. Amazon is getting lots of free press about this during prime shopping season, which is probably the original plan.
Talent hits a target no one else can hit; genius hits a target no one else can see.
Boz
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December 3rd, 2013 at 11:00:35 AM permalink
Quote: 1BB

Senator Ed Markey (D-MA) saw 60 Minutes and is already on it. He wants to set clear rules on these things to protect the privacy and safety of the public.



Naturally a liberal would be concerned about privacy, unless of course he wants to require you to buy something. Or if that privacy involves your gun rights, or.......
beachbumbabs
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December 3rd, 2013 at 6:44:55 PM permalink
Quote: AcesAndEights

Decided to split off to a new thread, not to derail Nareed's hate of The Cloude...


I offered up a bet on another forum. I believe that Amazon will have a functional prototype of this delivery drone working in at least a closed beta by the end of 2017. Now, I didn't get down to specific terms yet at that forum, but I have started thinking about them. One of the terms is that it can happen in any country, not just the US. So the regulatory burden might be lighter in another country; but at the same time, they will probably be proactively trying to stay within whatever the eventual FAA regulations are, so they can launch in the US ASAP.

Anyway, if anyone wants to bet even money against me, bring it on. Or propose a different betting line or a different date, and I will consider it.



Aces,

I hope you got your bet secured already. I did that job for several years with the FAA, working on requirements and prototype equipment as a liaison, which meant I saw it all from the project executive level as it was being built, from requirements to blueprints to test to prototype to fielded unit. By our definition, Amazon already has a functional prototype working in a closed beta (probably on one of their fulfillment campuses, or else they went through the process to get the test waivers, but if they kept it on their private property it's unlikely they got the waiver), unless that was trick photography or cgi, and you win your bet. The rest is just jurisdiction.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
AcesAndEights
AcesAndEights
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December 3rd, 2013 at 8:25:02 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Aces,

I hope you got your bet secured already. I did that job for several years with the FAA, working on requirements and prototype equipment as a liaison, which meant I saw it all from the project executive level as it was being built, from requirements to blueprints to test to prototype to fielded unit. By our definition, Amazon already has a functional prototype working in a closed beta (probably on one of their fulfillment campuses, or else they went through the process to get the test waivers, but if they kept it on their private property it's unlikely they got the waiver), unless that was trick photography or cgi, and you win your bet. The rest is just jurisdiction.


This is why betting terms are important :)

"Closed beta" may be too restrictive. For me to win the bet as I'm envisioning it (no one has taken me up on it so there are no official terms), Amazon would have to offer the service to real customers. It may be a "closed beta" in that not all customers are eligible. Maybe it's just a certain locality, or a subset of customers who got on a list, or a combination of the two or something. But it would have to be delivering real goods, from a real order, to a real customer.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
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December 3rd, 2013 at 9:03:43 PM permalink
Kamkar, a veteran security researcher and hacker, has put together his own drone platform, called Skyjack. The drone has the ability to forcibly disconnect another drone from its controller and then force the target to accept commands from the Skyjack drone. All of this is done wirelessly and doesn't require the use of any exploit or security vulnerability."
Face
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Face
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December 3rd, 2013 at 9:07:29 PM permalink
I know if I was out toting a shotgun and saw one, the thought would cross my mind. I wouldn't do it, but the thought would be there. And if I'm thinking it, I know at least a double handful of people who are already planning it.

It'd be just like a video game. Shoot a flying robot and treasure drops for you to collect.

I hope these things fly high, or many of my country kinfolk just got a new hunting season.
The opinions of this moderator are for entertainment purposes only.
FleaStiff
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December 3rd, 2013 at 9:29:32 PM permalink
Why shoot? A game warden might be around.
That skyjack cost four hundred dollars but its fancy.
All you have to do is generate strong GPS signals since drones usually do not challenge any signals they receive or know what to do if there is doubt as to a signal.
Wizard
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December 3rd, 2013 at 9:42:17 PM permalink
Quote: AcesAndEights

Anyway, if anyone wants to bet even money against me, bring it on. Or propose a different betting line or a different date, and I will consider it.



May I have $20 on the "no."
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Nareed
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December 3rd, 2013 at 9:51:34 PM permalink
Quote: AcesAndEights

Decided to split off to a new thread, not to derail Nareed's hate of The Cloude...



I don't hate "the cloud." I just want to opt out of it
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
Face
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Face
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December 3rd, 2013 at 10:23:49 PM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

Why shoot? A game warden might be around.
That skyjack cost four hundred dollars but its fancy.
All you have to do is generate strong GPS signals since drones usually do not challenge any signals they receive or know what to do if there is doubt as to a signal.



$400? I could get 1,000 rounds of #00 buckshot for $400. And wouldn't have to know tech stuff, or need batteries, or transmit a signal The Man could trace.

The robot might even be carrying a skyjack as a treasure, and then we'd have one anyways. It could even be carrying a new gun, or more ammo, or some pain meds, or all three Mighty Ducks dvds... the possibilities are endless.
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tournamentking
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December 4th, 2013 at 3:35:47 AM permalink
It's all nonsense as is betting on something like this. For the past 6 years or more I've only shopped online for my goods, I always check with Amazon first no matter what it is, and the majority of what I buy (and I order something every two weeks on avg.) comes from them. Guess what? Every single item has always arrived either on-time or early. They have the best system ever devised for deliveries, and they come by good old fashioned trucks.There will NEVER be regular deliveries made by silly drones.
AcesAndEights
AcesAndEights
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December 4th, 2013 at 8:06:24 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

May I have $20 on the "no."


Awesome! Let's make sure we have the terms straight (as Babs pointed out above).
For me to win the bet, the following terms must be satisfied no later than 2017-12-31 23:59 Pacific time (we're both in Pacific time so this is easy)

  • Amazon must have delivered a package to a real Amazon customer using an unmanned aerial drone
  • Said customer is NOT required to live in the United States
  • The service does not need to be available to all Amazon customers, or even all customers within a certain country, but must be available to some subset of customers (not just one test customer, for example)

If the conditions are not met, Wiz wins the bet. I can't think of other ones off the top of my head, but I feel like we're both in tune with the "spirit" of the bet.

In the event of a disagreement, we should have an arbiter. I would nominate Mission, although he may not want to sign up for such a responsibility 4 years into the future :)
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
FleaStiff
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December 4th, 2013 at 9:31:33 AM permalink
Quote: tournamentking

There will NEVER be regular deliveries made by silly drones.

For the nonce, its still good publicity but as traffic and parking become problems who knows what solutions will be found. Already shipping one big box to a Mail Box etc near a university can be cheaper than shipping separate boxes to various students and professors.

I don't think delivery drones will be in use any time soon, but its not as absurd an idea as is being made out.
RaleighCraps
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December 4th, 2013 at 6:26:59 PM permalink
My money is on 3-D printing!

I think it is going to much more likely that we will all have $200 3-D printers in our homes.
You will 'buy' a one time 'blueprint' to create the object. It will be yours as soon as it is made. No delivery needed.

Of course, there is still logistics about materials and electronics, but they are just details.......
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
Nareed
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December 4th, 2013 at 8:48:24 PM permalink
Jeff Bezos should take his last Cyber Monday income and fund teleportation research. That would beat the drone idea ll hollow
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
FleaStiff
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December 4th, 2013 at 10:15:59 PM permalink
Such printers seem to only print in plastic right now... no steel, no copper, no rubber.

So how could one print a "real" object?
djatc
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December 4th, 2013 at 10:37:43 PM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

Such printers seem to only print in plastic right now... no steel, no copper, no rubber.

So how could one print a "real" object?



If a 3D printer could print a 3D printer, how many 3D printers that are printed from the original 3D printer can print more printers until the universe collapses on itself, like dividing by 0?
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
rxwine
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December 4th, 2013 at 10:46:09 PM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

Such printers seem to only print in plastic right now... no steel, no copper, no rubber.

So how could one print a "real" object?



You can make plastic parts, including gears. Someone made this. I doubt the motors were printed though.

There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
FleaStiff
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December 5th, 2013 at 12:59:30 AM permalink
Quote: rxwine

You can make plastic parts, including gears. Someone made this. I doubt the motors were printed though.



Its 1350.00. It comes pretty much fully assembled after having been 3D printed on OTHER printers, not the consumer's printer.
And for 1350, I will dance the Salsa.
odiousgambit
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December 10th, 2013 at 3:02:41 AM permalink
Getting back to Amazon drones, if they ever get into service the controls would have to be significant.

Seems to me the only way it would work without Amazon personnel at the receiving end would be to have special safe reception sites. This could happen if a company or an organization received the package. Plus maybe some rich guy. Plus maybe people could drive to a reception center nearby.

If these reception centers never make it to ordinary citizens' homes, is the "no" bet a winner? [edited]
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
1BB
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December 10th, 2013 at 3:19:10 AM permalink
Is Amazon affiliated with CBS in any way or is it just a coincidence that 60 Minutes ran a free commercial for them on the eve of Cyber Monday?
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
FleaStiff
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December 10th, 2013 at 5:19:20 AM permalink
Sshhh. Feature not commercial. The difference is subtle, I know.
AcesAndEights
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December 10th, 2013 at 9:57:25 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

If these reception centers never make it to ordinary citizens' homes, is the "no" bet a winner? [edited]


The Wiz hasn't confirmed our bet, and no one else took me up on it. But I would judge that the "no" bet would be a winner, if the drones never made it to a normal home. You would probably have to pin a giant QR code on the front of your porch or something.

But if the drones can only deliver to specialized reception sites, and then you have to schlep it back to your house, then I definitely wouldn't have won the bet.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
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