Revel promotion sounds too good to be true

Quote: Jojo

OK.

(After all,he is HARVARD educated).

When it comes to gambling related things Some of the smartest people have NO clue its almost like gambling or things related like promotion developing have some mysterious power to make people stupid. I have seen some very smart educated guys come up with all kinds of Waco theories and creative math for games like roulette. And i'm not talking clocking or biases. Where some guys with very little education are out making tons of money. It's both an art and a science even some smart guys who know all the proper numbers and games can't make a single dime.

Quote: Jojo

(After all,he is HARVARD educated).

At one time, I worked with a group of people which included one who was Yale undergrad and Harvard grad. She was, by far, the least competent in the group.

Quote: AxelWolf

When it comes to gambling related things Some of the smartest people have NO clue its almost like gambling or things related like promotion developing have some mysterious power to make people stupid. I have seen some very smart educated guys come up with all kinds of Waco theories and creative math for games like roulette. And i'm not talking clocking or biases. Where some guys with very little education are out making tons of money. It's both an art and a science even some smart guys who know all the proper numbers and games can't make a single dime.

That is true, all management/sales/ads many other 'soft' abilities are part art and part science. But, it seems that the promo is working fine for most players, except for a very small subset of players (didn't you say the LIST had 30-40 names?)

Quote: Bhappy

Again, Randy Fine is not a moron. He did not create this promotion on a whim. He certainly has resources to perform similar analysis, and eliminate weak points. Of course it was Revel's money, but he had to put his reputation (and future income) on line for this promotion to be either revenue neutral or make money off it.

Bhappy once again weighing in on Randy Fine's:
a) Great intelligence
b) The certainty that he knew what he was doing (which means subsequent to the above post that all of the day by day changes to the promotion were obviously planned far in advance)

well jojo, next 3 days will tell if his smoking stuff, cheap food, cheap rooms brought in more money in June compared to last june, and in next 33 days we will know how the July numbers look. Next 7 days will tell if the news-media latches on to the story, and next 45 days will tell if there are any lawsuits.

Quote: kewlj

I have heard two different reports from folks at the scene this morning. One said that certain machines had been taken off line, shut down, placed out of order. A second said they had gone even further, removing certain machines from the floor altogether that had been on the floor only yesterday. I can't wait to hear more reports on this fiasco.

If this behavior was done in the retail world it would be called the 'classic' bait and switch, which is illegal. (yet still done).

But...Randy Fine is Harvard educated...

Just look at all the posts in this thread from people who are positive everything was planned this way.

Quote: Mission146

This isn't about AP's or a message board, it's about a bad business. It's not about Wizard publishing mathematical truths, but about the Revel's lies.

+1

Wizard, it is ridiculous that anyone blames you for any changes in the promotion.

I still would be interested in seeing some calculations on how much the casino can profit by giving free play against losses? Sorry folks, I can't consider "free play" as a rebate. I could consider it to be a consolation prize -- but not a rebate.

When I buy a new car, I get a $500 check in the mail, and that's a rebate.
When I buy a set of tires, I get a $25 Visa card, and that's a rebate.

But Free Play? I have to play that "free play" and hope I get lucky with it. And from what has been desciribed here, Revel doesn't have any "positive expectation games" so how much do I stand to lose with each free play dollar I bet?

And what about the players who can't redeem the free play? Figure that into Revel's bottom line.

See if my primitive math makes sense:

A player loses $10,000 during a weekend and gets 5% of that a week ($500) over the next 20 weeks.

Question: how many of those weekly rebates will he take advantage of?
Question: after this $10,000 player goes through the $500 free play, how much more might he pull out of his wallet "while he is there"??
Question: if the $500 is run through a 98% game one time, how much could the player "walk with"? $490 maybe?

Suppose Revel estimates that only half of the free play is redeemed? For our "$10,000 player" that would mean ten return visits with $500 of free play at each visit.

Expected return on that $500 of free play for 10 visits = $4900
Original loss = $10,000
Revel profit = $5100

Now, add in that our $10,000 player doesn't want to play just $500 of free play on each return visit. How much cash out of his own pocket will our "$10.000 player" play?

Will he play an additional $500 each visit?
Will he play an additional $1000 each visit?

Somehow I think Revel is going to make a lot of money out of this whole thing when all is said and done.

And why did Revel remove certain high limit video poker games with better pay tables from the promotion period?

1. For the same reason that some casinos offer 3,4,5 times odds at craps while others offer 10x or 100x odds -- they don't want the variance.
2. Or, perhaps they feel the promotion alone is enough to bring players in and they don't have to offer "better games."

And for those players who had their "cards pulled" and feel it was done unjustly and they did nothing wrong -- you should get a lawyer and you should take action. That is bait and switch at its worst.

There is an active thread here that has a quote to the effect that "casinos don't like players who win or break even because they lose money on both".

Then there is this thread that shows in detail to everyone (pros, APers, wannabes, casino mgmt., etc.) how much of a positive play Revel's promo was.

In this thread you also have a video of Colin Jones, an invitee to this year's Bj Ball, being backed off a table in WA off while still losing. Point being he was allowed to lose, but not to win back to even, after being identified.

Then there is a lot of conjecture about Revel's timeline and decision to eliminate some of the players and choices to play.

Besides the databases casinos already have regarding players, they probably do have other intelligence. They have what little money it would take to buy more intelligence.

Mission makes a good point and it is worth repeating. Mohegan Sun advertised a very valuable promo. I was there and it was an absolute AP convention. No one thought they'd stick to the original terms. Very early on, they knew they were getting smoked. Everyone in the pits was talking about it. But, guess what? Nobody on the up and up got banned. No tables got shut down or reduced. It didn't end early. They didn't even stop allowing triple down after split. They lost over a mil on a day, but they never cried about it. Maybe it is cold comfort to them, but whenever I am in the area I stay there. People ask for my opinion on casinos a lot, and if they are in Connecticut I tell them what a beautiful facility Mohegan Sun is. They earned my respect and everything I can do for them. I don't know anyone, AP or ploppy, who has anything good to say about Revel.