How do you calculate the probability of a specific finishing order for 3 all in hold em hands
March 24th, 2013 at 7:31:45 PM
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I think that is just a regular poker calculator, I don't see where it calculates the trifecta
March 24th, 2013 at 7:34:27 PM
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My bad, please see the editted post above.
March 24th, 2013 at 7:43:30 PM
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Quote: paisielloPoker Odds Calculator
If PA1, PB1, and PC1 are the respective probabilities of each player finishing 1st, then the probability of player A finishing 2nd and 3rd are (ignoring ties):
PA2 = PB1*PA1/(PA1+PC1) + PC1*PA1/(PA1+PB1)
PA3 = 1 - PA1 - PA2
Put this in a spread sheet I suppose if you want a program to do it for you.
I'm pretty sure this would be inaccurate. Probability for A cannot be for 2nd and 3rd, it has to be the trifecta for the mid stack to go out in 3rd considering the stack sizes. Or maybe I am misunderstanding
March 24th, 2013 at 8:01:17 PM
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I don't think the stack sizes would have anything to do with which player has the best hand and in which order they finish. Maybe you should give a specific example to clarify your question for me.
Do you agree at least my formula for PA3, the probability of player A finishing 3rd, is accurate?
Do you agree at least my formula for PA3, the probability of player A finishing 3rd, is accurate?
March 24th, 2013 at 8:10:37 PM
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Stack sizes don't have anything to do with the end rankings of the hands but it does affect which order they finish. I didn't include stack sizes in the original post because I just wanted to figure the trifecta probability, but there would be a side pot because of a short stack, medium, and large stack.
As far as the formula I'm afraid it's a bit over my head
As far as the formula I'm afraid it's a bit over my head
March 24th, 2013 at 8:16:52 PM
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OK, it seems you are interpreting the "order of finish" as the amount of chips each player wins?
March 24th, 2013 at 8:25:42 PM
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give me a minute want to try to explain it better
March 24th, 2013 at 8:35:49 PM
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This is the situation:
Player A:300k
Player B:150k
Player C:30k
I am player B so the only way I get eliminated IN THIRD PLACE is to get beat by player A who also either ties or gets beat by player C in this same hand
Player A:300k
Player B:150k
Player C:30k
I am player B so the only way I get eliminated IN THIRD PLACE is to get beat by player A who also either ties or gets beat by player C in this same hand
March 24th, 2013 at 8:39:40 PM
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OK, I think I see now. You want to know the probability of who ends up in what place in the "tournament" assuming they chop immediately after the hand. Correct?
March 24th, 2013 at 8:51:41 PM
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No, I want to know the probability of player B getting eliminated in 3rd place after that hand.
For that to happen, C has to have the best hand, A the second best, and B the worst hand. If A had the best hand both B and C would be out but B would get 2nd place because of the higher stack, regardless of whether C beat his hand
For that to happen, C has to have the best hand, A the second best, and B the worst hand. If A had the best hand both B and C would be out but B would get 2nd place because of the higher stack, regardless of whether C beat his hand
