clarkacal
clarkacal
Joined: Sep 22, 2010
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March 24th, 2013 at 7:31:45 PM permalink
I think that is just a regular poker calculator, I don't see where it calculates the trifecta
paisiello
paisiello
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March 24th, 2013 at 7:34:27 PM permalink
My bad, please see the editted post above.
clarkacal
clarkacal
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March 24th, 2013 at 7:43:30 PM permalink
Quote: paisiello

Poker Odds Calculator

If PA1, PB1, and PC1 are the respective probabilities of each player finishing 1st, then the probability of player A finishing 2nd and 3rd are (ignoring ties):

PA2 = PB1*PA1/(PA1+PC1) + PC1*PA1/(PA1+PB1)

PA3 = 1 - PA1 - PA2

Put this in a spread sheet I suppose if you want a program to do it for you.



I'm pretty sure this would be inaccurate. Probability for A cannot be for 2nd and 3rd, it has to be the trifecta for the mid stack to go out in 3rd considering the stack sizes. Or maybe I am misunderstanding
paisiello
paisiello
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March 24th, 2013 at 8:01:17 PM permalink
I don't think the stack sizes would have anything to do with which player has the best hand and in which order they finish. Maybe you should give a specific example to clarify your question for me.

Do you agree at least my formula for PA3, the probability of player A finishing 3rd, is accurate?
clarkacal
clarkacal
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March 24th, 2013 at 8:10:37 PM permalink
Stack sizes don't have anything to do with the end rankings of the hands but it does affect which order they finish. I didn't include stack sizes in the original post because I just wanted to figure the trifecta probability, but there would be a side pot because of a short stack, medium, and large stack.

As far as the formula I'm afraid it's a bit over my head
paisiello
paisiello
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March 24th, 2013 at 8:16:52 PM permalink
OK, it seems you are interpreting the "order of finish" as the amount of chips each player wins?
clarkacal
clarkacal
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March 24th, 2013 at 8:25:42 PM permalink
give me a minute want to try to explain it better
clarkacal
clarkacal
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March 24th, 2013 at 8:35:49 PM permalink
This is the situation:

Player A:300k
Player B:150k
Player C:30k

I am player B so the only way I get eliminated IN THIRD PLACE is to get beat by player A who also either ties or gets beat by player C in this same hand
paisiello
paisiello
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March 24th, 2013 at 8:39:40 PM permalink
OK, I think I see now. You want to know the probability of who ends up in what place in the "tournament" assuming they chop immediately after the hand. Correct?
clarkacal
clarkacal
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March 24th, 2013 at 8:51:41 PM permalink
No, I want to know the probability of player B getting eliminated in 3rd place after that hand.

For that to happen, C has to have the best hand, A the second best, and B the worst hand. If A had the best hand both B and C would be out but B would get 2nd place because of the higher stack, regardless of whether C beat his hand

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