teddys
teddys
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June 19th, 2012 at 4:09:13 PM permalink
Question, regarding the Shufflemaster games:

For the ones that use a six deck shoe, shuffled after 2/3rds of the deck, I've heard it said that you can "decay" the count and essentially count the game.

Is this possible and can you speak about it?
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
Wizard
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Wizard
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June 22nd, 2012 at 11:51:53 AM permalink
Quote: teddys

Question, regarding the Shufflemaster games:

For the ones that use a six deck shoe, shuffled after 2/3rds of the deck, I've heard it said that you can "decay" the count and essentially count the game.

Is this possible and can you speak about it?



Any game that does not always shuffle between hands is, in theory, countable. Most Shufflemaster games are poker variants, and thus shuffle between hands. For the rest it is just a question of how effective it is. For example, baccarat is in theory countable, but without a computer you could play all day waiting for one positive EV bet.

Anyway, per the original post, I have a draft of my first Ask the Wizard column since January. Before announcing it on my Odds site, I welcome all comments and corrections.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
JB
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JB
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June 22nd, 2012 at 12:11:30 PM permalink
Hmm. In the answer to the question I offered, I disagree about Joker Poker having a higher chance of a royal. Running the 17/7 paytable through the calculator indicates that perfect strategy yields a natural royal once every 40,466.58 hands.

Also, while it's probably not around any more, 9/6 Royal Aces offers a prize of 800 times the bet every 3,729.24 hands on average.
Wizard
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Wizard
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June 22nd, 2012 at 12:35:02 PM permalink
Quote: JB

Hmm. In the answer to the question I offered, I disagree about Joker Poker having a higher chance of a royal. Running the 17/7 paytable through the calculator indicates that perfect strategy yields a natural royal once every 40,466.58 hands.



I just double check it and stand by my figure. Perhaps you put in a different pay table. I put in the 98.44% Kings pay table.

Quote:

Also, while it's probably not around any more, 9/6 Royal Aces offers a prize of 800 times the bet every 3,729.24 hands on average.



Good point. I just added mention of that game.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
JB
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JB
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June 22nd, 2012 at 12:57:08 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I just double check it and stand by my figure. Perhaps you put in a different pay table. I put in the 98.44% Kings pay table.


Yes, that's where the difference is. I was using a prize of 800 for the royal. Using 940 does yield the figure you quoted.
AcesAndEights
AcesAndEights
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June 22nd, 2012 at 5:22:19 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Anyway, per the original post, I have a draft of my first Ask the Wizard column since January. Before announcing it on my Odds site, I welcome all comments and corrections.


Slight typo on the last question,
Quote:

What we see is that by the third generation the proportion of the population with red hair will converge to 3.85%.


The table shows 3.89% (and technically 3.90% after the 3rd generation if you're rounding to 2 decimal points).
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
JJ
JJ
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June 25th, 2012 at 10:20:21 AM permalink
At our local bingo (Centennial Bingo) there is a jackpot called "Strive for Five". A 3-up book costs $5 and basically the goal is to get a standard start (any line, 4 outside corners, or a corner postage stamp) in 5 numbers or less during any of the 8 regular games. There is no limit to the amount of books you can play although you must have at least a regular 6-up door book. You can use the free for a line.

It is important to note that if a bingo is called on the 4th number, all bingos on the 5th number become void. It goes up $50 per regular game and starts at $500. If there is more than one winner on the eligible books, the pot is shared.

What is the chance of hitting it (in 4 and 5 numbers)?

Is there a break even point?

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