rdw4potus
rdw4potus
Joined: Mar 11, 2010
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October 5th, 2011 at 12:24:39 PM permalink
Quote: statman

rdw4pous: "at least 3 members of this forum are widely respected professional gaming mathematicians"

Would you please identify them? I'd like to know more about them and read their posts. Give a brief bio if you would!



I was thinking of the Wiz, Math Extremist, and Teliot. You can do your own research on their bios. Based on previous conversations, I think Cindy Liu might also be a member, but I don't know what her handle is.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
Joined: Aug 31, 2010
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October 5th, 2011 at 12:27:22 PM permalink
Quote: rdw4potus

Riiiiiight. Maybe they can't solve it. Or maybe they just think that you're a tool and the problem isn't worth their time. Seeing as how at least 3 members of this forum are widely respected professional gaming mathematicians, I'm guessing that the latter is the case...



Or maybe the solution has already been posted, and maybe at least two of those professional gaming mathematicians are wondering why this conversation is still going on...
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
statman
statman
Joined: Sep 25, 2011
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October 5th, 2011 at 1:58:09 PM permalink
MATERIAL REMOVED

Some of it eventually may reappear on the web site of the
Rancocas Valley Journal of Applied Mathematics
Please flag this page so that it may be deleted.
Many thanks to those who have been helpful.
A fool is someone whose pencil wears out before its eraser does. - Marilyn Vos Savant
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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October 5th, 2011 at 3:30:05 PM permalink
Quote: statman

rdw4pous:MathExtremist has contributed extensively to this thread and he has shown me about as much knowledge of math as the average high-school dropout, however a non-mathematician might be fooled by his hubris.


Wow.
Maybe you have not read all of his [MathExtremis] posts here at WoV.

I now see, after reading all the posts in this thread since so many for yours are missing, why so many here are against you.

You started off saying something about a fantastic discovery and then the math behind that discovery was found to be actually answering a different, but close, question. A "specific" vs. "any" number.

The more I have looked into this, yes this makes for some interesting math. I am not that good at math so no help can come from me.

MathExtremist gave his solution for your question as a multinomial distribution, etc, he lost me on the rest.
I just do not think he wants to spend the time in solving your question as you may run off with the solution and claim it as your own. I am not saying you would do that, but this is the 21st century and the internet has shown that this does actually take place.

Maybe you should have just asked for help on a great math question without the biased, non-biased wheel being thrown into the mix.

My BF says your math question might actually be easier to solve using a Markov chain.
I can do real basic ones but not for your question. Maybe CrystalMath or weaselman, just to name a few, would offer their help. They have shown their excellence in using math skills.

But then, maybe they do not like you by how you have behaved here.
just my 2 cents
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
algle
algle
Joined: Aug 12, 2010
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October 5th, 2011 at 4:09:13 PM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear


Admin note: removed image www.djteddybear.com/images/wheel_analysis.JPG
The piece of the puzzle that I can't read is the number of spins in this analysis....



I can read the following from your image:

Data Series: Last 20,000 spins
Start Date: ??/??/1999
End Date: ??/??/2000
Wheel Type Single Zero

Num Spins 20,004
Mean 541(?)
%Std Dev 2.5%(?)
Std C?? Test CAUTION
Max Z Score 2.34(?)
Num Test FAIL


While this is clearly useful data for the casino, it is presumably collected electronically by those notoriously inaccurate scanners over the wheel.
I would think it is also likely the data collection has errors - sometimes the same number appears repeatedly after just 1 spin.
However the shape of the graph in this case does indicate bias towards a part of the wheel.

Even so, what player is going to record 20,000 spins to find this out at the same time the casino is finding out and fixing it?
If nothing will change then I am nothing.
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
Joined: Aug 31, 2010
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October 5th, 2011 at 6:28:44 PM permalink
Quote: mustangsally


MathExtremist gave his solution for your question as a multinomial distribution, etc, he lost me on the rest.
I just do not think he wants to spend the time in solving your question as you may run off with the solution and claim it as your own. I am not saying you would do that, but this is the 21st century and the internet has shown that this does actually take place.


No, I don't want to spend the time because I'm at G2E meeting with clients and licensees. I'm a consultant - I only take abuse from people who pay me. :)
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
Joined: Mar 11, 2010
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October 5th, 2011 at 6:34:02 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

I only take abuse from people who pay me. :)



And here I thought that was illegal in Clark county...;-)
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
statman
statman
Joined: Sep 25, 2011
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October 5th, 2011 at 11:11:46 PM permalink
MATERIAL REMOVED

Some of it eventually may reappear on the web site of the
Rancocas Valley Journal of Applied Mathematics
Please flag this page so that it may be deleted.
Many thanks to those who have been helpful.
A fool is someone whose pencil wears out before its eraser does. - Marilyn Vos Savant
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
Joined: Mar 11, 2010
  • Threads: 80
  • Posts: 7039
October 6th, 2011 at 6:58:51 AM permalink
Quote: statman

If we are evaluating outcomes at the 5% level of significance, 1% accuracy in the tables is more than enough.



Thank you. I needed a laugh this morning.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
statman
statman
Joined: Sep 25, 2011
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October 6th, 2011 at 2:58:44 PM permalink
Who is Right? (Or who is closer to the correct value?)

This question is to be found on http://wizardofodds.com/askthewizard/roulette.html

What are the chances of a dealer hitting 5 of the same number in 10 spins of the roulette wheel? -- Spence from Red Deer, Alberta

Wiz: The chances of any number occurring exactly 5 times in 10 spins in a double-zero roulette game could be closely approximated by 38*combin(10,5)*(1/38)5*(37/38)5 = 1 in 359,275.

Apparently he has a way of figuring these things out, but we are far apart. His answer is 0.000002783, My answer is 0.00011.
We also are apart by a factor of 100 on a subsequent question: 6 hits in 1000 spins. My tables say the probability is 0.00005
A fool is someone whose pencil wears out before its eraser does. - Marilyn Vos Savant

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