- The ever-increasing Average Daily Rate (ADR) for hotel rooms, and how ADR understates true cost when resort fees, parking charges, and other "hidden" costs are included.
- Casino efforts to increase the House Advantage (HA) on any and every gaming proposition, driving away gaming patrons who look for games with a lower HA.
- Casinos truly believe gaming patrons won't notice the incremental HA changes that benefit the casinos. So, they pile on each little rule change, expecting none to be a game-changer individually, while ignoring the overall impact on play that so many gaming patons notice.
The Las Vegas Convention & Visitors Bureau (LCVB) reports 2018 was the second "down" year in total visitor volume, and was the first time it occurred when there was no national recession. Also, 2018 convention-visitor count was down for the first time in years. Hwang ties the data to the gripes and grumbles often expressed by WoV members.
The author marshals a variety of data to support his view, making the article a good read for anyone interested in the overall Vegas gaming market. My only criticism is the omission of the impact of the pro football stadium.
Interesting that the author didn't even mention video poker pay tables.
When the big players and whales play (the patrons who actually make money for the casino), they typically play in the HLR, where the negative rule changes aren’t as prevalent. And if they play some trash 6:5 game on the main floor, that’s just more money for the casino.
Quote: RS#3 is flawed. People simply don’t care about the house advantage. It’s also tough to realize the higher HE due to variance and poor play. If we’re going to take the stance that gamblers are rational thinkers, then why are they even gambling? Even if we said they’re somewhat rational, then why are they playing 10%+ HE side bets? They’re likes flies on s*** for side bets with huge house edges, but they’re gonna be snobs and not play because of a 1.39% addition to the base bet? No.
When the big players and whales play (the patrons who actually make money for the casino), they typically play in the HLR, where the negative rule changes aren’t as prevalent. And if they play some trash 6:5 game on the main floor, that’s just more money for the casino.
I think the point of the article is that slaughtering the sheep is not a good long term strategy for the wool industry. Gaming revenue as a whole is down. Visitor numbers overall are down. Short term profits can be made with side bets with huge house edge's, but there is a long term cost in lower visitor numbers since there are less winners, and short, losing gaming sessions are nothing to talk up your friends in Poughdunk about.
Quote: RS#3 is flawed. People simply don’t care about the house advantage. It’s also tough to realize the higher HE due to variance and poor play. If we’re going to take the stance that gamblers are rational thinkers, then why are they even gambling? Even if we said they’re somewhat rational, then why are they playing 10%+ HE side bets? They’re likes flies on s*** for side bets with huge house edges, but they’re gonna be snobs and not play because of a 1.39% addition to the base bet? No.
When the big players and whales play (the patrons who actually make money for the casino), they typically play in the HLR, where the negative rule changes aren’t as prevalent. And if they play some trash 6:5 game on the main floor, that’s just more money for the casino.
I think #3 has more merit than you're giving it. People are noticing that, where their $200 buy-in used to last them an hour, now they're lucky to play for 15 minutes. There have been many articles and conversations about how there's no longer a decent shot at winning.
When people would rather spend their $500 on a single bottle at a night club than playing with friends at a table, where they have free drinks, a seat, and a chance at the $500 not being gone at the end of the evening, at some level they've figured out they're suckers at the gaming table.
And $500 in a night is well beyond most gambler's means. But it's a drop in a Strip property's bucket, based on the table minimums and bad games they offer. Off-strip and DT properties have pointed out the difference on billboards and ads long enough that even the "idiot gambler" can see it. So they stay away, except to walk the Strip in huge numbers, and crowd places like Casino Royale (a dump IMO, but they do offer low minimums).
In whatever order, they blew up the cheap rooms, then raised the pricing on what's left, added the resort fees, started charging for parking, started metering the drink service, charging for lounge entry, removed snack buffets, got rid of cheap dining options, took away discretionary pit comps, raised table minimums, and shaved the game odds away from the player. It's a slow death spiral that's being actively rejected by most non-Strip places (notable exception AC, which SHOULD be serving as an object lesson to them as it dies).
I don't know why Stations or Boyd doesn't market even more actively to grab those players left behind. Or any of the other non mLife /non CET properties still on the Strip. I realize Wynn and Venetian think they don't need them, but the dozen or so others could really step it up in contrast. There's a huge volume market going under tapped, and an Old Vegas business model that worked for decades and can still work.
An obvious exaggeration, but it shows the diverse clientele casinos are marketing to.
Quote: billryanThe two corporations that control the strip are diversifying into entertainment empires. Rather than offer cheap entertainment and dining to gamblers, they now see all three as revenue sources. They are in a tricky position in that they are trying to anticipate what the next generation wants while catering to the many baby boomers as well. They can't afford to lose either group, but no one has found the happy medium yet. Millennials want afternoon day clubs and will drop $200 on an afternoon at the pool. Boomers want $5 blackjack and penny slots.
An obvious exaggeration, but it shows the diverse clientele casinos are marketing to.
True, but does anyone in corporate realize that Millennials will not want afternoon day clubs and $200+ bottles forever? The excesses of youth will fade, but the grind of middle aged folks looking for a good slot deal is timeless. In a few years Millenials will feel old and awkward in a club full of their children. In fact, the generations coming behind the Millennials has already shown signs of rejecting their ascendants narcissistic ways.
So what will these former clubbers do when they get too old for the club scene?
Since I started playing decades ago the emphasis has changed from the casinos to the clubs. The gambling is there, but since so many people are clubbing then they don't notice the not so subtle changes that have emerged. One of the best examples, for what it's worth, is SLS. 6:5 is everywhere on the strip unless you want to play at a $100 table (I've yet to see a triple 0 roultette wheel). You need to be betting black to get a DD game up there too. Also, the tradional games are also populated by silly side bets where the new gamblers don't even realize how bad the odds are.
The rooms are out of control because , in all fairness, they are fancy but, face it, unless you're in the suites uptown for the people who bet five and six figures a hand, a room is a room. Adding insult to injury, they charge those silly fees and high strip prices even when they are at 50% occupancy in the middle of the week of August.
This is one of the main reasons I've turned away from the strip. At the GN I get host who sets me up with a nice suite, limo, and full comps for my play. Just to compare, I sent my info to CET and they wrote back and told me that I didn't rate a host (basically don't call us, we'll call you).
The article doesn't say much about the revenue changes downtown, but I bet it's a driving force to send people down there, especially people like me who've been going for decades and find the whole concept of 6:5 laughable. There must be a lot of people, "non-idiots", who see it the same way.
Am I the only person who grew up as a strip snob but has left for good?
The Four Queens and Binion's share the same owner, TLC Casino Enterprises.
clubbers, show goers, foodie fadists..... oh yeah, a few hit the casino too.
but the victors are the mba types.....the real vegas moved to reno, I hear.
or perhaps it can be found down in geritol town where there is no real strip.
remember the days of the two dollar movies and bowling and free rv slots
Where are the snows of yesteryear? Beats me.
head to the locals..... no shows, no frills, free mobility carts for the gamblers that ain't kicked off yet.
Quote: AyecarumbaTrue, but does anyone in corporate realize that Millennials will not want afternoon day clubs and $200+ bottles forever? The excesses of youth will fade, but the grind of middle aged folks looking for a good slot deal is timeless. In a few years Millenials will feel old and awkward in a club full of their children. In fact, the generations coming behind the Millennials has already shown signs of rejecting their ascendants narcissistic ways.
So what will these former clubbers do when they get too old for the club scene?
In today's corporate environment, suits don't look much beyond the next earnings period. The major players are swimming in debt and gasping for straws.
Quote: TomGThe Las Vegas Strip is selling luxury. The lack of value isn't a problem, it is a design. Value can be found on the Strip for people who know where to look, but anyone staying at the Cosmo or Venetian is looking for something far different than what most of us (including the author) would consider "value."
I value winning or at the very least having had a good run for my money.
I can see a bit of value in safety but I see no value in strutting around with the swells who prance around as if its some society column event.
Quote: FleaStiffI value winning or at the very least having had a good run for my money.
I can see a bit of value in safety but I see no value in strutting around with the swells who prance around as if its some society column event.
You don't want to stay there and they don't want you. No problem.
My observations are: with the exception of casino royale, casinos on the strip have nickeled and dimed the entry level casino-goer to death. But that's a phenomena associated with travel everywhere and exasperated in Las Vegas. And Vegas overall was down only 105,400 last year, including 155,400 fewer convention visitors. Strip gaming revenue was up year/year by 2%, downtown up 3%. Airport traffic hit record highs in November and October 2018. Car traffic was up 1.1% at the i15 corridor at the CA-NV border. LVCVA annual summary.
That said, the writer talks specifically about blackjack as if it was beatable -- the fact is that likely a very small percentage of players understood it and knew how to count. So I disregard the 2nd point altogether.
And Vegas has completed its transformation from the place where hotels were cheap and you could get .99 shrimp cocktails and $10 steak dinners to resorts offering opulence. There is still a place for the degenerate gambler because those who play even minimally and show loyalty get cheap rooms and meals on the strip... Those looking for a cheap place to stay now stay downtown. There are enough people in the middle class who gamble forcentertain entire who are willing to pay the higher hotel rates as a getaway.
I stayed in Vegas once last year (MGM) and put in 10k in coin for VP and played about 8 hours of PGP. My win/loss showed -350. I have a free stay coming up good at any MGM property besides bellagio/aria/vdafa/cosmopolitan. That isn't much play.
Quote: boymimbo
And Vegas has completed its transformation from the place where hotels were cheap and you could get .99 shrimp cocktails and $10 steak dinners to resorts offering opulence. There is still a place for the degenerate gambler because those who play even minimally and show loyalty get cheap rooms and meals on the strip... Those looking for a cheap place to stay now stay downtown.
Ok, now I have to chime in about how much I resent those comments. I'm not a degenerate gambler but I like knowing that I'm valued downtown. I don't get a room, I get a nice suite without those stupid daily fees and a limo and full RFB for playing at the same levels that I'd play with on the strip- those same levels for which CET won't even give me the time of day for higher levels than your playing at!
Do you want to poke your head into other casinos for an hour or two- for a little variety- then I'd rather walk across a street rather than go 1/2 mile just to get on a bridge and walk the same 1/2 mile back the other way. If you want to see shows go ahead but I can take the deuce and still be there.
Looking for value and an establishment that treats you like the valued consumer that you are doesn't make you a degenate gambler!
Quote: LovecompsOk, now I have to chime in about how much I resent those comments. I'm not a degenerate gambler but I like knowing that I'm valued downtown. I don't get a room, I get a nice suite without those stupid daily fees and a limo and full RFB for playing at the same levels that I'd play with on the strip- those same levels for which CET won't even give me the time of day for higher levels than your playing at!
Do you want to poke your head into other casinos for an hour or two- for a little variety- then I'd rather walk across a street rather than go 1/2 mile just to get on a bridge and walk the same 1/2 mile back the other way. If you want to see shows go ahead but I can take the deuce and still be there.
Looking for value and an establishment that treats you like the valued consumer that you are doesn't make you a degenate gambler!
The gambler who plays frequently enough will get strip deals that will pull them in. It won't be a good deal 'such as downtown but it will be room + credit + freeplay for some pretty low level play.
I will be downtown on Sunday and frankly I did not enjoy those casinos that much the last two times I was there. What I did see poking through the park MGM tonight is a lot of young people playing 6-5 blackjack. I just felt that GN and Binions was dark and depressing.
And I know what you mean about the distances, but to each their own. They are megaresorts designed to keep the weary on the property.
Quote: AyecarumbaI think the point of the article is that slaughtering the sheep is not a good long term strategy for the wool industry. Gaming revenue as a whole is down. Visitor numbers overall are down. Short term profits can be made with side bets with huge house edge's, but there is a long term cost in lower visitor numbers since there are less winners, and short, losing gaming sessions are nothing to talk up your friends in Poughdunk about.
They're down compared to when? I don't have the stats, but seems like there are way more casinos outside of Vegas than there were years ago. Vegas isn't as much of a gambling destination as it used to be, because there's probably one pretty nearby where you live. Aside from Hawaii, Alaska, and probably parts of Texas or Utah, there's almost certainly going to be a casino within a few hour drive from you. I think the group of people who would be traveling to Vegas to gamble are now just gambling at their local casino. Plenty of these local casinos are mega resorts, too, offering just about everything that Vegas does, other than sports betting, clubs, and shows (even though this is all changing and that is starting to become a thing).
Quote: beachbumbabsI think #3 has more merit than you're giving it. People are noticing that, where their $200 buy-in used to last them an hour, now they're lucky to play for 15 minutes. There have been many articles and conversations about how there's no longer a decent shot at winning.
When people would rather spend their $500 on a single bottle at a night club than playing with friends at a table, where they have free drinks, a seat, and a chance at the $500 not being gone at the end of the evening, at some level they've figured out they're suckers at the gaming table.
And $500 in a night is well beyond most gambler's means. But it's a drop in a Strip property's bucket, based on the table minimums and bad games they offer. Off-strip and DT properties have pointed out the difference on billboards and ads long enough that even the "idiot gambler" can see it. So they stay away, except to walk the Strip in huge numbers, and crowd places like Casino Royale (a dump IMO, but they do offer low minimums).
In whatever order, they blew up the cheap rooms, then raised the pricing on what's left, added the resort fees, started charging for parking, started metering the drink service, charging for lounge entry, removed snack buffets, got rid of cheap dining options, took away discretionary pit comps, raised table minimums, and shaved the game odds away from the player. It's a slow death spiral that's being actively rejected by most non-Strip places (notable exception AC, which SHOULD be serving as an object lesson to them as it dies).
I don't know why Stations or Boyd doesn't market even more actively to grab those players left behind. Or any of the other non mLife /non CET properties still on the Strip. I realize Wynn and Venetian think they don't need them, but the dozen or so others could really step it up in contrast. There's a huge volume market going under tapped, and an Old Vegas business model that worked for decades and can still work.
I agree with the table minimums to an extent, but not the bad games. I don't think anyone would be able to differentiate between 3:2 BJ and 6:5 BJ, 9/6 DDB and 9/5 or even 8/5 DDB, or some other other increased-HE game, at least for the amount of time someone would be playing in Vegas. It's variance.
Let's say someone plays 5 hours of VP at 400 hands per hour. That's 2,000 hands. If he plays $1 denom ($5/spin) on 9/6 DDB and another on 8/5 DDB, the guy playing 8/5 is going to get shorted about 44 times, totaling $220. That's less than a single (lowest paying) 4 of a kind. That's also assuming optimal play, which you know they aren't going to be doing.
One guy plays 3:2 BJ and another 6:5, each for 5 hours and we'll say 100 rounds per hour (probably fast, but whatever). $10 hands. You expect to get a BJ once in every about 21 hands, so he should get about 25 blackjacks. He'll get shorted $75 for the session. That's the difference of TWO hands where he doubled down and lost versus won ($80 net swing).
Obviously playing a 1:1 BJ w/ no double or split or 6/5 DDB is going to be noticeable compared to their "full pay" counterparts.
If you've been to any of the bars in Vegas, you'll see a bunch of degens playing VP or keno with terrible paytables. You'd be very lucky if you found 7/5 Bonus at a bar. Check out a grocery store or convenience store with machines. The odds are terrible but there are still people playing. Obviously people go to the bar not solely to gamble, but because of the ambience or whatever (friends, cute bartenders, it's their usual hangout spot, that sorta thing).
TLDR: Gamblers are not smart and don't think rationally, so don't assume they're smart and think rationally.
Quote: RSThey're down compared to when? I don't have the stats, but seems like there are way more casinos outside of Vegas than there were years ago. Vegas isn't as much of a gambling destination as it used to be, because there's probably one pretty nearby where you live. Aside from Hawaii, Alaska, and probably parts of Texas or Utah, there's almost certainly going to be a casino within a few hour drive from you. I think the group of people who would be traveling to Vegas to gamble are now just gambling at their local casino. Plenty of these local casinos are mega resorts, too, offering just about everything that Vegas does, other than sports betting, clubs, and shows (even though this is all changing and that is starting to become a thing)...
The UNLV Center for Gaming Research recently released the December 2018 data showing monthly Strip revenue from gaming down vs. year ago for the fourth straight year.
Agree that local options have hurt the Strip, but rather than fighting to win back the proletariat they court the bourgeois. Unfortunately, there aren't enough whales to go around for that to be a long term strategy.
Quote: AyecarumbaThe UNLV Center for Gaming Research recently released the December 2018 data showing monthly Strip revenue from gaming down vs. year ago for the fourth straight year.
Agree that local options have hurt the Strip, but rather than fighting to win back the proletariat they court the bourgeois. Unfortunately, there aren't enough whales to go around for that to be a long term strategy.
I will wager the increase in door charges, liquor sales and dining dwarfs the loss of gambling revenue. Not to mention turning parking from a liability into a cash cow.
Quote: GialmereWhile I agree with most of what the OP article says, let's be honest ... it's just a voice crying out in the wilderness. If gamblers (taken as a group) were smart enough to know the difference between a good and bad deal, or wise enough to seek the advice of those who did, then a site like this would have several million users reading through it and asking questions.
Need to take that a step further;
If gamblers (taken as a group) were smart enough to know the difference between a good and bad deal, or wise enough to seek the advice of those who did there would be no gamblers.
Quote: MaxPenNeed to take that a step further;
If gamblers (taken as a group) were smart enough to know the difference between a good and bad deal, or wise enough to seek the advice of those who did there would be no gamblers.
I think many have and are wising up and their lack of participation contributes significantly to
the declining numbers. The ones that don't posses the capacity to wise up are succumbing
to the effects of negative reinforcement. Gambling games whole premise is to provide lots
of short term small wins to create positive reinforcement it's crucial to keep them playing
a loosing game. When the games get so tight they lose this effect and even those with
less capacity will grow tired of the constant bitter taste.
Macau is a big factor as well, However the big one has yet to come, but it's coming
and Vegas see's it coming the attempt to change the model tells me so. What many
see as Vegas making big errors I believe is a last ditch effort and an educated one
to survive the hydrogen bomb that's going to be dropped on it.
What is this bomb? "Internet gaming" Just like Marijuana the states never ending thirst
for revenue insures this.
Quote: rainmanQuote: MaxPenNeed to take that a step further;
If gamblers (taken as a group) were smart enough to know the difference between a good and bad deal, or wise enough to seek the advice of those who did there would be no gamblers.
I think many have and are wising up and their lack of participation contributes significantly to
the declining numbers. The ones that don't posses the capacity to wise up are succumbing
to the effects of negative reinforcement. Gambling games whole premise is to provide lots
of short term small wins to create positive reinforcement it's crucial to keep them playing
a loosing game. When the games get so tight they lose this effect and even those with
less capacity will grow tired of the constant bitter taste.
Macau is a big factor as well, However the big one has yet to come, but it's coming
and Vegas see's it coming the attempt to change the model tells me so. What many
see as Vegas making big errors I believe is a last ditch effort and an educated one
to survive the hydrogen bomb that's going to be dropped on it.
What is this bomb? "Internet gaming" Just like Marijuana the states never ending thirst
for revenue insures this.
I often wonder how effective Benny Binion's business model would be today.
My suggestion is to go to some of the local/independent casinos in town of which there are plenty. If you want to play Video Poker, check out VPFree2.com. They will show you where the best pay tables are (And NONE of them are on the Strip).
You will also find better deals on Table Games off the strip than on the strip. ($5 progressive bets vs $1 progressive bets for example, or good double deck 3:2 games vs crappy 6 deck 6:5 games)
Good luck!
Many moons ago a host at a property I played at said I was "$500 MTR" or some 3 letter acronym to somebody on the phone while I was sitting in her office which implied that if I was playing a 4% theo VP I was a 12.5k/day player. This was after many stays of just picking up FP and leaving. I won't disclose what I did with this information but let's just say I was grossly overestimating what casinos require out of players for comps.
When we first heard of this it was a big deal and everyone thought it was going to have some big impact on drinkers. From what I can tell at most places its actually easier to get a drink than before. $ 20 coin in seems to do the trick. Sometimes the light comes on right away after just one or 2 hands on a dollar machine.Quote: beachbumbabsstarted metering the drink service.
Quote: TomGThe Las Vegas Strip is selling luxury. The lack of value isn't a problem, it is a design. Value can be found on the Strip for people who know where to look, but anyone staying at the Cosmo or Venetian is looking for something far different than what most of us (including the author) would consider "value."
Yeah. Also, the nightclub thing is a different animal. The fact that it is superficially a rip off is the point. Men are lighting piles of money on fire in the hope that women will be drawn to the flames.
Some people will grow out of this. But then more young people with money will come along, and more middle aged men who have finally made it will take their turn. However, the preferred method of money burning might change.
I have heard many people complain about the relentless nickel and diming. I think it is having a long term effect and the danger is that this changes the Vegas meme, or the common wisdom about Vegas among non-luxury tourists. If it becomes just kind of a running joke that Vegas is a complete rip off, they might be in some trouble.
Trying to think of a parallel case. Maybe the DMV? I've been going to the DMV for 25 years, in a few states and almost all of the time they've been pretty efficient and the service has been pretty good, especially considering the types of people they have to deal with. But it's a big meme that the DMV is this Kafkaesque nightmare. It's unshakable.
Parking might be the worst to this end, because it's not only an expense but a constant annoyance. You have to keep track of your ticket, go through the check point, get stuck behind someone at the check point, pay at the machine in the lobby, etc. So you're constantly aware of it. If you don't want to go through this repeatedly, and you want to travel between resorts, now you might wind up taking an Uber even though you have your own car. THAT is a big hassle on the strip too. All because they want to get $2510 instead of $2500 out of you on this trip.
At least the resort fees are a one time kick in the balls.