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NowTheSerpent
NowTheSerpent
Joined: Sep 30, 2011
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October 9th, 2011 at 9:59:56 AM permalink
Right. Absolutely. Why would I argue with a genius?
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
Joined: Aug 31, 2010
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October 9th, 2011 at 10:23:11 AM permalink
I love arguing with geniuses. It's one of the fastest ways I know of learning new things. People who never question what they're told are doomed to a life of gullible subservience.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
NowTheSerpent
NowTheSerpent
Joined: Sep 30, 2011
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October 31st, 2011 at 1:59:17 AM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

People who never question what they're told are doomed to a life of gullible subservience.



Those who always question what they are told tend to be doomed to such a life also, since large governments and corporations will give them an ultimatum no less quickly than they will to the aforementioned gullible subservients.

But in response to your original post question it appears that the proper HA figure on your bet is 14.14%

probability of setting a Point (4, 6, 8, or 10) via hardways: 4 out of 16 or 0.25.

probability of winning on a Point of 6 or 8: 1 out of 11 "6" or "8" establishments, or 0.090909090909......

probability of winning on Point of 4 or 10: 1 out of 9 "4" or "10" establishments, or 0.1111111111111.....

So, probability of winning = (prob. of setting "4" via 2&2) x (prob. of winning as 2&2) + (prob. of setting "6" via 3&3) x (prob. of winning as 3&3)
+(prob. of setting "8" via 4&4) x (prob. of winning as 4&4) + (prob. of setting "10" as 5&5) x (prob. of winning as 5&5)

= (1/16)(1/9) + (1/16)(1/11) + (1/16)(1/11) + (1/16)(1/9) = 5/198 or 2.52525....%

I believe (though I don't still remember for sure) you suggested a payout of 33 to 1 on this bet? If so, then the return is 34 x 0.025252 = 0.858585, which leaves 14.1414% to the House, which, for a payout at this level, is reasonable.

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