odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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February 17th, 2010 at 9:35:32 AM permalink
Spent some time a while ago with the wizard's up-to-date Full Pay VP simulator on deuces wild, you can put it on auto-pilot to play perfect at super speed (actually they are cool as hell)

Anyway, the EV would kick in finally most of the time if your bankroll held out. Quite nicely and impressively in fact.

One cautionary example was a case of 38,000 plays and finally the result was busted bankroll. In other words, the very best players could spend untold hours only to go broke after the week(s) it would take to play out that particular sequence of luck. If anyone was crazy enough.

Seems to me if it takes one unlikely event to get the postive EV to work, that is a special case. The Kelly Criterion might address that, too bad it is over my head.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
teddys
teddys
Joined: Nov 14, 2009
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February 17th, 2010 at 11:21:21 AM permalink
The simulator at vpgenius.com will also give you a good (and faster) simulation.

I think the Kelly bankroll for dollar deuces wild is something close to $14K. So for quarters it is around $3,500. (Someone correct me if I'm wrong.) $1,000 is not nearly enough to play even at the quarter level. Most people like to have more than the Kelly bankroll anyway. It's really just a starting point.

(OG: Are you saying you only busted out once playing $5/hand with the $1,000 starting bankroll on the Wizard's simulator? How many simulations did you run?)
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
inap
inap
Joined: Dec 12, 2009
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February 17th, 2010 at 11:41:55 AM permalink
i practice vp and can easily play over 1,000 hands per hour fairly accurately but i know my accuracy suffers the faster i play, and 'fairly' accurate is not good enough. i asked Bob Dancer and he stresses accuracy over speed. every mistake will greatly reduce that 1.6 advantage. i would guess that a true professional vp player would not be playing a nickel game as they would have the bankroll to find something that would be worth more than a 1.6 edge on a nickel machine. a game like this is perfect for the recreational player though. i'll check this out when i'm there! :)
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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February 17th, 2010 at 12:33:20 PM permalink
Quote: teddys

(OG: Are you saying you only busted out once playing $5/hand with the $1,000 starting bankroll on the Wizard's simulator? How many simulations did you run?)



no, busted out several times, the one mentioned was the most miserable looking.

I should check it out to be sure, but I think it is $1.25 per hand on his simulator.

I ran about a dozen simulations and almost saved the results but didnt. I'd say with the $1000 bankroll half or more went to ruin.

EDIT: the game uses "units", credits to start are 1000 units, to get best paytable bet 5 units. Be sure to max speed before starting autoplay and I'll tell you it's pretty darn fast. You are correct the bankroll is very small for such a game. I'll check our your suggested site, it would be nice to be able to adjust the bankroll.

EDIT2: at http://www.vpgenius.com/video-poker/deuces-wild.aspx the simulation is sure fast, but unsatisfying somehow.

EDIT3: the 38,000 hand game, and at other instances when eventually there was ruin but a long run, clearly the player at some point could have stopped and been up.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
wildqat
wildqat
Joined: Nov 11, 2009
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February 17th, 2010 at 5:45:48 PM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

Then again, how many of them are in there?


One little, lonely, upright Loose Deuces machine near what they claim is the sports book. They also have four full pay Double Bonus machines by the upstairs bar. These are actually marked with signs that say "BETTER THAN 100% RETURN with perfect play"

Quote: FleaStiff

I don't know how many such machines they have or what techniques they might employ to prevent hogging of them...


From what I've seen, nothing, and they don't need to, either. People either don't care, or they don't believe it. I generally give the DB machines a go when I'm in there and I'm usually the only one there. I've never seen anyone play the LD machine.
zin
zin
Joined: May 18, 2010
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May 19th, 2010 at 5:43:37 PM permalink
on video poker the denomination has no bearing, only the paytable make it a gd or bad machine to play
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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May 20th, 2010 at 1:39:29 AM permalink
The only people who would work the machine at an optimal ten dollars an hour would be retirees not interested in an alternative gainful employment.

The machine would have to be worked all the time and worked well.

So it sort of makes sense that the casino would not publicize this loss leader it would just let it exist and be more of a nominal loss leader than an actual one.

If the machine draws people in, even a dedicated team of players, its still going to be profitable for the casino because of the illusions about theoretical Full Pay versus practical Full Pay.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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May 20th, 2010 at 11:55:33 AM permalink
deleted
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
rudeboyoi
rudeboyoi
Joined: Mar 28, 2010
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May 20th, 2010 at 12:13:15 PM permalink
youre looking at the wrong paytable.

this is fitzgeralds paytable that returns 101.6%

1-2-2-3-4-10-17-25-500-800

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