teddys
teddys
Joined: Nov 14, 2009
  • Threads: 150
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February 27th, 2012 at 2:00:32 PM permalink
Quote: SONBP2

My wife and I played approximately 2500 hands of video poker full pay deuces wild and full pay double double bonus this weekend. We did hit a few natural four of kinds playing deuces (paying 25 credits), but not 4 deuces and didn't hit any four of a kinds playing double double. We ended up down $300 playing quarters. I believe that equates to about an average return of 90%. Approximately, $3,125 in total play for a return of $2,825. Considering the fact that we were playing full pay machines and I had my smart phone with the wizard of odds optimal deuces wild strategy open for any questions I believe this to be a pretty bad run on the machines.

Nah. That is exceedingly average. 90% is a common result in the short term. I've had anywhere from 75%-85% too, and that was on JoB. You should hit the deuces every 5,000 hands or so. I'm in the middle of a three cycle deuces drought (15,000+ hands), and before that another three cycle drought. (But hit three Royals in Vegas!). I heard some guy was in the middle of six cycles without the Deuces. And that is on DW; DDB has mega-variance. I heard one person call it the "devil's game." I would tend to agree with that. You should get a natural quad every 420 hands or so, but that is not guaranteed of course and you can trend downward VERY quickly with the low two pair payouts.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
ddloml
ddloml
Joined: Dec 5, 2009
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February 27th, 2012 at 2:36:24 PM permalink
Quote: helpmespock

Interesting that it's typically no hand pay for a $0.25 machine. I'm assuming that the $1200 threshold is for the W2G thing right? Can I take the $1000 ticket to the ticket cashing machine or must I go to the cashier?



Several years ago I was at the Wynn with my wife, my brother and his wife, and their just-turned-21 daughter. My brother's family and I were seeing "Spamalot" and we left my wife loose in the casino (she wasn't interested in seeing the show). During the show, she hit a Royal on a $0.25 JOB machine and had to walk around for over an hour with the $1,000 TITO, just waiting to wave it at us after we got out of the show. The funny part was that she wanted to make a big deal out of cashing the ticket and none of the staff seemed to be as excited as she was. It was just another $1,000 changing hands to them - granted, it was the Wynn, after all.

Another interesting observation happened at Potawatomi casino in Milwaukee. This was a few years ago, when you had to go to the cashier to collect on your slot card offers. So, I'm standing in line to get my $10 free play and the couple in front of me had a TITO worth $1,700. They nonchalantly handed it to the cashier and she promptly scanned the ticket and paid out the $1,700, no questions asked. I'm next, and I handed the cashier my $10 slot play coupon. I then had to produce my player's club card AND my drivers license (picture ID), AND sign a receipt before the cashier would give me the $10! Go figure...
ddloml
ddloml
Joined: Dec 5, 2009
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 70
February 27th, 2012 at 2:36:32 PM permalink
Quote: helpmespock

Interesting that it's typically no hand pay for a $0.25 machine. I'm assuming that the $1200 threshold is for the W2G thing right? Can I take the $1000 ticket to the ticket cashing machine or must I go to the cashier?



Several years ago I was at the Wynn with my wife, my brother and his wife, and their just-turned-21 daughter. My brother's family and I were seeing "Spamalot" and we left my wife loose in the casino (she wasn't interested in seeing the show). During the show, she hit a Royal on a $0.25 JOB machine and had to walk around for over an hour with the $1,000 TITO, just waiting to wave it at us after we got out of the show. The funny part was that she wanted to make a big deal out of cashing the ticket and none of the staff seemed to be as excited as she was. It was just another $1,000 changing hands to them - granted, it was the Wynn, after all.

Another interesting observation happened at Potawatomi casino in Milwaukee. This was a few years ago, when you had to go to the cashier to collect on your slot card offers. So, I'm standing in line to get my $10 free play and the couple in front of me had a TITO worth $1,700. They nonchalantly handed it to the cashier and she promptly scanned the ticket and paid out the $1,700, no questions asked. I'm next, and I handed the cashier my $10 slot play coupon. I then had to produce my player's club card AND my drivers license (picture ID), AND sign a receipt before the cashier would give me the $10! Go figure...
4andaKicker
4andaKicker
Joined: Jun 20, 2012
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June 20th, 2012 at 1:53:31 PM permalink
I understand what the original poster is asking: about how many trips at the given rate of play should it take before it is 90% likely to have seen a Royal? He is not asking what the chances are in any given hand. If I'm not mistaken, there is some way to quantify the likelihood of an event happening or not within X number of independent trials. A simple answer would be that a Royal appears on AVERAGE every 40,000 hands. But I don't think 40,000 hands represents a 90% likelihood of seeing one, but probably the midpoint of a 50% likelihood of seeing one. I wish I had the math expertise to give the answer, but I'm sure you would need many more hands than 40,000 to reach a 90% likelihood.
buzzpaff
buzzpaff
Joined: Mar 8, 2011
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June 20th, 2012 at 2:32:26 PM permalink
" I'm sure you would need many more hands than 40,000 to reach a 90% likelihood. "

93,654 hands approximately plus or minus 1/56th
Xciceroguy
Xciceroguy
Joined: Jul 1, 2012
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July 1st, 2012 at 7:28:45 PM permalink
Not sure how long it will take, but the first one is the hardest one. The day I hit my first I also hit my second. I have a total of 5 now.

Good luck.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
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July 2nd, 2012 at 6:39:43 AM permalink
Quote: 4andaKicker

I wish I had the math expertise to give the answer, but I'm sure you would need many more hands than 40,000 to reach a 90% likelihood.


Quick hit of math:

The 90% likelihood of getting at least one Royal in N hands = the 10% likelihood of getting zero Royals in N hands

If you assume the probability of getting a Royal = 1/40,000 (is it really that high? I thought it was closer to something like 1/25,000), then the probability of not getting a Royal = 39,999/40,000, and the probability of not getting a Royal in N hands is (39,999/40,000)N.
For this to be 0.1, you have
(39,999/40,000)N = 0.1
Since log (XY) = Y log X, take the logarithm of both sides:
N log (39,999/40,000) = log 0.1
N = log 0.1 / log (39,999/40,000) = 92,102.25
4andaKicker
4andaKicker
Joined: Jun 20, 2012
  • Threads: 7
  • Posts: 82
July 2nd, 2012 at 6:29:25 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Quick hit of math:

The 90% likelihood of getting at least one Royal in N hands = the 10% likelihood of getting zero Royals in N hands

If you assume the probability of getting a Royal = 1/40,000 (is it really that high? I thought it was closer to something like 1/25,000), then the probability of not getting a Royal = 39,999/40,000, and the probability of not getting a Royal in N hands is (39,999/40,000)N.
For this to be 0.1, you have
(39,999/40,000)N = 0.1
Since log (XY) = Y log X, take the logarithm of both sides:
N log (39,999/40,000) = log 0.1
N = log 0.1 / log (39,999/40,000) = 92,102.25



Yes it is that high, and actually it approaches 43,000 hands for some games but the 40,000 figure is a generally accepted average. Thanks so much for showing how this probability is calculated.

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