Nah. That is exceedingly average. 90% is a common result in the short term. I've had anywhere from 75%-85% too, and that was on JoB. You should hit the deuces every 5,000 hands or so. I'm in the middle of a three cycle deuces drought (15,000+ hands), and before that another three cycle drought. (But hit three Royals in Vegas!). I heard some guy was in the middle of six cycles without the Deuces. And that is on DW; DDB has mega-variance. I heard one person call it the "devil's game." I would tend to agree with that. You should get a natural quad every 420 hands or so, but that is not guaranteed of course and you can trend downward VERY quickly with the low two pair payouts.Quote:SONBP2My wife and I played approximately 2500 hands of video poker full pay deuces wild and full pay double double bonus this weekend. We did hit a few natural four of kinds playing deuces (paying 25 credits), but not 4 deuces and didn't hit any four of a kinds playing double double. We ended up down $300 playing quarters. I believe that equates to about an average return of 90%. Approximately, $3,125 in total play for a return of $2,825. Considering the fact that we were playing full pay machines and I had my smart phone with the wizard of odds optimal deuces wild strategy open for any questions I believe this to be a pretty bad run on the machines.

Quote:helpmespockInteresting that it's typically no hand pay for a $0.25 machine. I'm assuming that the $1200 threshold is for the W2G thing right? Can I take the $1000 ticket to the ticket cashing machine or must I go to the cashier?

Several years ago I was at the Wynn with my wife, my brother and his wife, and their just-turned-21 daughter. My brother's family and I were seeing "Spamalot" and we left my wife loose in the casino (she wasn't interested in seeing the show). During the show, she hit a Royal on a $0.25 JOB machine and had to walk around for over an hour with the $1,000 TITO, just waiting to wave it at us after we got out of the show. The funny part was that she wanted to make a big deal out of cashing the ticket and none of the staff seemed to be as excited as she was. It was just another $1,000 changing hands to them - granted, it was the Wynn, after all.

Another interesting observation happened at Potawatomi casino in Milwaukee. This was a few years ago, when you had to go to the cashier to collect on your slot card offers. So, I'm standing in line to get my $10 free play and the couple in front of me had a TITO worth $1,700. They nonchalantly handed it to the cashier and she promptly scanned the ticket and paid out the $1,700, no questions asked. I'm next, and I handed the cashier my $10 slot play coupon. I then had to produce my player's club card AND my drivers license (picture ID), AND sign a receipt before the cashier would give me the $10! Go figure...

Quote:helpmespockInteresting that it's typically no hand pay for a $0.25 machine. I'm assuming that the $1200 threshold is for the W2G thing right? Can I take the $1000 ticket to the ticket cashing machine or must I go to the cashier?

Several years ago I was at the Wynn with my wife, my brother and his wife, and their just-turned-21 daughter. My brother's family and I were seeing "Spamalot" and we left my wife loose in the casino (she wasn't interested in seeing the show). During the show, she hit a Royal on a $0.25 JOB machine and had to walk around for over an hour with the $1,000 TITO, just waiting to wave it at us after we got out of the show. The funny part was that she wanted to make a big deal out of cashing the ticket and none of the staff seemed to be as excited as she was. It was just another $1,000 changing hands to them - granted, it was the Wynn, after all.

Another interesting observation happened at Potawatomi casino in Milwaukee. This was a few years ago, when you had to go to the cashier to collect on your slot card offers. So, I'm standing in line to get my $10 free play and the couple in front of me had a TITO worth $1,700. They nonchalantly handed it to the cashier and she promptly scanned the ticket and paid out the $1,700, no questions asked. I'm next, and I handed the cashier my $10 slot play coupon. I then had to produce my player's club card AND my drivers license (picture ID), AND sign a receipt before the cashier would give me the $10! Go figure...

93,654 hands approximately plus or minus 1/56th

Good luck.

Quote:4andaKickerI wish I had the math expertise to give the answer, but I'm sure you would need many more hands than 40,000 to reach a 90% likelihood.

Quick hit of math:

The 90% likelihood of getting at least one Royal in N hands = the 10% likelihood of getting zero Royals in N hands

If you assume the probability of getting a Royal = 1/40,000 (is it really that high? I thought it was closer to something like 1/25,000), then the probability of not getting a Royal = 39,999/40,000, and the probability of not getting a Royal in N hands is (39,999/40,000)

^{N}.

For this to be 0.1, you have

(39,999/40,000)

^{N}= 0.1

Since log (X

^{Y}) = Y log X, take the logarithm of both sides:

N log (39,999/40,000) = log 0.1

N = log 0.1 / log (39,999/40,000) = 92,102.25

Quote:ThatDonGuyQuick hit of math:

The 90% likelihood of getting at least one Royal in N hands = the 10% likelihood of getting zero Royals in N hands

If you assume the probability of getting a Royal = 1/40,000 (is it really that high? I thought it was closer to something like 1/25,000), then the probability of not getting a Royal = 39,999/40,000, and the probability of not getting a Royal in N hands is (39,999/40,000)^{N}.

For this to be 0.1, you have

(39,999/40,000)^{N}= 0.1

Since log (X^{Y}) = Y log X, take the logarithm of both sides:

N log (39,999/40,000) = log 0.1

N = log 0.1 / log (39,999/40,000) = 92,102.25

Yes it is that high, and actually it approaches 43,000 hands for some games but the 40,000 figure is a generally accepted average. Thanks so much for showing how this probability is calculated.