zuti6
zuti6
Joined: Oct 13, 2015
  • Threads: 31
  • Posts: 87
October 18th, 2015 at 11:27:03 AM permalink
How much more variance is in multi-hand video poker?
What i mean is when you get 1 hand -for example 88kj2 and you chose to keep 88 and then it goes and gives you 100 times 3 new cards besides those 8s...each for money
handsNftRmangos
handsNftRmangos
Joined: Mar 11, 2020
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 17
Thanks for this post from:
ChumpChange
January 12th, 2021 at 2:13:12 PM permalink
I found this to be an interesting, albeit old, discussion so just chiming in.

I certainly don’t fancy myself a statistician, but I do like to be an informed gambler so I find these topics very interesting.

I ran an example that I think may be helpful for those semi-serious players who care enough to know the stats but complacent enough to gamble on the strip (I say that in jest, as I do think there are many benefits to staying on the strip and that’s where I always stay when I go). I used “real world” numbers found on the strip from the last time we were in Vegas which was a few months ago.

6/5 Bonus Poker (shitty pay out but in my experiences by far the most common on the strip), playing $0.50 (ie $2.50/push), 10,000 hands which I would say would be a fair estimate for a moderate to heavy player who spends a weekend in Vegas. I used 4.57 for the SD which is technically the SD of 8/5 Bonus but I didn’t know 6/5 off hand.

-10k hands equals $25k coin in
-EV of (-782.50)
-using the posted formula above (sd * sqrt hands played * denomination) would yield: SD 1,142.50

Shifting the bell curve to peak at the EV would give the following:
+/- 1 SD (-$1,925 to +$360)
+/- 2 SD (-$3,067.50 to +$1,502.50)
+/- 3 SD (-$4,210 to +$2,645)

Now as previously noted VP is actually not normally distributed, so how useful these estimations are I guess is up for debate. From a statistician or even “professional gamblers” view point they probably aren’t particularly helpful. But at least in my opinion I think for any casual, or even semi-casual player it can be useful to shed some light on what can be expected and as previously noted I think for the vast vast majority of players it can be used as an approximation for bankroll management purposes.

Personally I would look at the 2 SD mark and focus on my average anticipate loss per 10k hands played/$25k coin in would be (-$782.50) and 95% of the time I would be expected to end up between (-$3,067.50) to + $1,520. I would personally also be fairly confident setting my bankroll at $3,000 if I planned to play the amount above.

Again, the pure statisticians are probably cringing but for the rest of us I think it suffices.
handsNftRmangos
handsNftRmangos
Joined: Mar 11, 2020
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 17
January 12th, 2021 at 2:22:01 PM permalink
Also, I think using the SD amounts really highlights the importance of finding better pay tables. Playing a full pay 8/5 Bonus machine would result in that “negative EV bell shift” from -782.50 to -$207.50 and that bulk of anticipated outcome values found for 1SD to -1,350 to +$935 which just seems so much better.

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