Thread Rating:

MDawg
MDawg
Joined: Sep 27, 2018
  • Threads: 17
  • Posts: 1688
November 27th, 2020 at 10:17:54 AM permalink
DarkOz has a habit of misstating and mis-summarizing what MDawg has said. Or stepping in to alter what was said to suit some other proposal he has to which no one has agreed or would agree. DarkOz doesn't call the shots, MDawg does. If you wish to know exactly what is/was involved with any MDawg wager, including the ones that involve the $50,000. figure, ask CoachBelly, as he has an accurate mind.

I am not interested in providing more proof than what I have online to anonymous internet people, other than the win statements that I am happy to post at the end of the year, unless there is something in it for me. For one, I assume that anyone who has significant cash to put up is more likely to be a legitimate person and somewhere on my level, and therefore not someone I would be reluctant to meet in person. If anyone is so certain that what I have posted is not true, then let's arrange a wager for some real money that makes it worth our time.
Last edited by: MDawg on Nov 27, 2020
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people.
darkoz
darkoz 
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
  • Threads: 244
  • Posts: 7601
November 27th, 2020 at 10:18:05 AM permalink
Quote: MDawg

I actually proposed another version of that "Let me observe MDawg" wager another time. Which was, show up, watch me play Baccarat. At the end of the session I will either pay you DOUBLE what I lost, or you must pay me double what I won. This last trip I won as much as $30,000. in one session, although most sessions I won much less.



I don't think that really proves anything for that type of wager due to daily variance

However some of the posters on here might agree to a cumulative win/loss over say five days.

I think someone needs to calculate when it passes over into million to one odds for you to win consecutive days at Baccarat.

And then if you achieve beating million to one odds most of the forum members not only will hail you for it but be willing to pay the above type wager
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
terapined
terapined
Joined: Dec 1, 2012
  • Threads: 83
  • Posts: 5605
Thanks for this post from:
SOOPOO
November 27th, 2020 at 10:27:29 AM permalink
Quote: MDawg

If anyone is so certain that what I have posted is not true, then let's arrange a wager for some real money that makes it worth our time.


What does a wager have to do with proving the impossible
Winning consistently at a negative EV game is impossible
Has nothing to do with a wager
It's impossible
Watching the impossible is definitely worth my time
You proving the impossible should be worth your time. You are doing something nobody else on the planet is doing if we are to believe you. Proving it should be worth your time. You being believed seems important to you looking at all the posts in this thread. If you did not care to be believed then this thread would not exist
"Everybody's bragging and drinking that wine, I can tell the Queen of Diamonds by the way she shines, Come to Daddy on an inside straight, I got no chance of losing this time" -Grateful Dead- "Loser"
MDawg
MDawg
Joined: Sep 27, 2018
  • Threads: 17
  • Posts: 1688
November 27th, 2020 at 10:34:45 AM permalink
All right, so now you're calling me a liar. Saying that what I have stated that I have done is "impossible" is akin to calling it "fiction."
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people.
darkoz
darkoz 
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
  • Threads: 244
  • Posts: 7601
November 27th, 2020 at 10:42:26 AM permalink
Quote: MDawg

All right, so now you're calling me a liar. Saying that what I have stated that I have done is "impossible" is akin to calling it "fiction."



Which is precisely why you should be willing to prove your impossible claims without a financial demand.

Let me put it to you another way.

If you were to get any number of gambling experts including the Wizard, Michael Blujay, and plenty others to watch you actually achieve your claims in person...

That would be worth $50,000 in multiples.

You could sell books. You might have a movie made. You could charge for the lecture circuit.

Possibilities would be endless
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
PokerGrinder
PokerGrinder
Joined: Apr 30, 2015
  • Threads: 22
  • Posts: 4030
Thanks for this post from:
darkoz
November 27th, 2020 at 10:44:21 AM permalink
It is mathematically impossible what you claim. Stop calling for everyone who doesnít believe your claims to be suspended, itís flat out ridiculous. You want to write it great, let everyone have their own opinions on the validity of it. I personally donít believe what you write and that is my right to not believe something that goes against logic.
You can shear a sheep a hundred times, but you can skin it only once. ó Amarillo Slim Preston
MDawg
MDawg
Joined: Sep 27, 2018
  • Threads: 17
  • Posts: 1688
November 27th, 2020 at 10:55:33 AM permalink
Again, MDawg calls the shots here, not you, so stop saying "Stop calling" to me. And the reason I call the shots is that I just spent nearly seven weeks in Vegas, won nearly $74K, and was fully comp'ed to the tune of mmm...60K or so. That is a fact and unless you have direct proof to the contrary, your post is libelous ("impossible") and suspension worthy, according to the way the Wizard has stated the rules.
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people.
TDVegas
TDVegas
Joined: Oct 30, 2018
  • Threads: 0
  • Posts: 637
November 27th, 2020 at 10:58:30 AM permalink
Itís not impossible to be net ahead over long term play at a negative expectation game. I believe simulations have shown this to be possible with low house edge wagering. It is, however, impossible to beat the house advantage unless one provides some form of mathematical reasoning as to why he can beat it. Counting cards in black jack would be one way. Dice influence in craps would be another.

I know of no viable method to win at baccarat beyond variance (luck). Variance will only take you so far. It will not allow you to beat the game.

Btw, net ahead could mean ahead by $1 at the end of a gambling career.

No one is using the tables as some kind of consistent income generator, IMO. Even card counting has been hammered to death by the casino bosses.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1360
  • Posts: 22564
Thanks for this post from:
RogerKint
November 27th, 2020 at 10:59:06 AM permalink
Quote: Terapined

Winning consistently at a negative EV game is impossible



Quote: MDawg

All right, so now you're calling me a liar. Saying that what I have stated that I have done is "impossible" is akin to calling it "fiction."



T's statement is true, assuming you define consistently as over an infinite period of time. Since he made a generalization I do not interpret it to be equivalent to calling you a liar.

I'm interested in a wager, by the way.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
MDawg
MDawg
Joined: Sep 27, 2018
  • Threads: 17
  • Posts: 1688
November 27th, 2020 at 11:03:28 AM permalink
Wizard, which wager?


Quote: TDVegas

Itís not impossible to be net ahead over long term play at a negative expectation game. I believe simulations have shown this to be possible with low house edge wagering. It is, however, impossible to beat the house advantage unless one provides some form of mathematical reasoning as to why he can beat it. Counting cards in black jack would be one way. Dice influence in craps would be another.

I know of no viable method to win at baccarat beyond variance (luck). Variance will only take you so far. It will not allow you to beat the game.

Btw, net ahead could mean ahead by $1 at the end of a gambling career.

No one is using the tables as some kind of consistent income generator, IMO. Even card counting has been hammered to death by the casino bosses.


Mathematically there might not be so much variance in Baccarat, for someone who bets Bank every hand. But there is a tremendous amount of variance between the shoes where I win a lot and the shoes where I lose or break even, based on the way I play. I'd get into details, but it might take a dissertation.
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people.

  • Jump to: