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DeMango
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January 2nd, 2020 at 4:52:45 PM permalink
I remember Spanish word of the day!
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
DeMango
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January 2nd, 2020 at 4:53:11 PM permalink
Wonder if we finally see some red?
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
OnceDear
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January 2nd, 2020 at 5:52:28 PM permalink
Quote: DeMango

Wonder if we finally see some red?


We have seen AxelWolf and PokerGrinder red, briefly,
Warning to Michael that 'MDawg es fullo de crapa', was a quite a personal insult.
No suspension from me this time, not even an hour, but keep your responses WELL within the rules.
So far they have been pretty well focused. Don't slip into personal insult territory.
This thread is controversial. Suspensions are likely, but let's not 'ruin the flow'.

1. Absolutely no personal insults. If you disagree with another forum member, politely attack the writing, not the writer.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
michael99000
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January 2nd, 2020 at 6:05:51 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

We have seen AxelWolf and PokerGrinder red, briefly,
Warning to Michael that 'MDawg es fullo de crapa', was a quite a personal insult.
No suspension from me this time, not even an hour, but keep your responses WELL within the rules.
So far they have been pretty well focused. Don't slip into personal insult territory.
This thread is controversial. Suspensions are likely, but let's not 'ruin the flow'.

1. Absolutely no personal insults. If you disagree with another forum member, politely attack the writing, not the writer.



I thought we are allowed to critique the post, but not the member ?

I have said nothing insulting about MDawg personally, all my comments are about his gambling theories
OnceDear
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January 2nd, 2020 at 6:59:45 PM permalink
Quote: michael99000

I thought we are allowed to critique the post, but not the member ?

I have said nothing insulting about MDawg personally, all my comments are about his gambling theories

Aw c'mon Michael! Seriously?

"I disagree with you. I see a lot other members of the forum who also think mdawg is fullo de crapa"

If you'd said "Mdawg's posts are full of crap" or even "MDawg's theories are full of crap". I wouldn't have seen an insult. 'a lot of other members' might have agreed or thanked you.

Even allowing for my bad translation skills, it was MDawg the member that you attacked.

Nice deflection suggesting that it was 'other members' that think that MDawg is 'full of crap'.
What would you have me do? Suspend 'a lot of other members'?

You are better than this.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
PokerGrinder
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January 2nd, 2020 at 7:06:06 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Aw c'mon Michael! Seriously?

"I disagree with you. I see a lot other members of the forum who also think mdawg is fullo de crapa"

If you'd said "Mdawg's posts are full of crap" or even "MDawg's theories are full of crap". I wouldn't have seen an insult. 'a lot of other members' might have agreed or thanked you.

Even allowing for my bad translation skills, it was MDawg the member that you attacked.

Nice deflection suggesting that it was 'other members' that think that MDawg is 'full of crap'.
What would you have me do? Suspend 'a lot of other members'?

You are better than this.



In his defence a lot of other members also think Mdawg is el fulla de crapo. Obviously I don’t think that because that would be an insult, I’m just figuring based on responses here that a large contingent believe that every bit of gambling info he provides is garbage. I personally think a good amount of sex, proper eating and sleep are essential when analyzing how to bet in baccarat, the negative EV game that can be beaten as long as you are rich, vary your bets and leave the table if shoe isn’t cooperating. Oh and hit and run!
You can shear a sheep a hundred times, but you can skin it only once. — Amarillo Slim Preston
Boz
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January 2nd, 2020 at 7:07:01 PM permalink
Quote: MDawg

One more session later today then will move to the next resort tomorrow.

These are the Adventures of MDawg. If you'd care to read the WILD Adventures of MDawg, before he got married, you'll need to buy the book.

If you like this thread, read it. If you don't, write your own, or don't read it.
(Or show up with $50K to take the MDawg challenge.)



Could you put the details on the challenge out there specifically? If the numbers are right I’m sure it can be arranged.
darkoz
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January 2nd, 2020 at 7:28:35 PM permalink
Quote: Boz

Could you put the details on the challenge out there specifically? If the numbers are right I’m sure it can be arranged.



Im tempted to take the side bet that the MDawg challenge never materializes due to fuzzy rules
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
OnceDear
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January 2nd, 2020 at 7:35:52 PM permalink
Quote: darkoz

Im tempted to take the side bet that the MDawg challenge never materializes due to fuzzy rules

Me too. The guy is in Vegas now isn't he? Why show off his wealth and status in forum posts, when he can draw a live audience?
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
TDVegas
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January 2nd, 2020 at 7:38:41 PM permalink
If I read it correctly...he's willing to have someone watch his action for 2 straight weeks. Assuming 2 sessions per day....that's 28 sessions. A good chunk of play. How many hands are we talking?

I'm not sure why the watcher...verifier....needs to show up with $50,000 as well. He's not making a claim of better or betterment than the game....but whatever. He's simply there as witness to watch 15-30 sessions. The more the better to get an indication.

By all means, this claimed AP player does not have to show anyone anything...but he did make the offer. I'm just not sure why someone needs to play next to him with $50 Grand. If MDawg wins...he wins. He has an independent witness to report here. Same applies to a loss. What on Earth does another player playing baccarat next to him have to do with this?
TDVegas
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January 2nd, 2020 at 7:43:50 PM permalink
Quote: darkoz

Im tempted to take the side bet that the MDawg challenge never materializes due to fuzzy rules


This is always the elephant in the room. Details.
darkoz
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January 2nd, 2020 at 7:52:43 PM permalink
Quote: TDVegas

If I read it correctly...he's willing to have someone watch his action for 2 straight weeks. Assuming 2 sessions per day....that's 28 sessions. A good chunk of play. How many hands are we talking?

I'm not sure why the watcher...verifier....needs to show up with $50,000 as well. He's not making a claim of better or betterment than the game....but whatever. He's simply there as witness to watch 15-30 sessions. The more the better to get an indication.

By all means, this claimed AP player does not have to show anyone anything...but he did make the offer. I'm just not sure why someone needs to play next to him with $50 Grand. If MDawg wins...he wins. He has an independent witness to report here. Same applies to a loss. What on Earth does another player playing baccarat next to him have to do with this?



I am pretty certain its set up as a barrier to anyone who is interested in the challenge.

And this way MDawg can claim his system was never verified because no one wanted to wager with fifty grand

Whenever you have such a challenge the rules have to be clear and distinct.

As I said above fuzzy rules here will make this a challenge that never occurs
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
MDawg
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January 2nd, 2020 at 8:09:10 PM permalink
I scrolled quickly through the above, may read them more closely another time. Headed to meet my buddy at Wynn for dinner, my wife isn't up for it she's staying in.

As far as Michael99000...yeah. I didn't think so.

Final session here was no sweat, won, stopped. Didn't play very hard here and only the DD stand 17 BJ, final tally about three grand to the good. I did keep an occasional eye on the Bacc. next door but the shoe wasn't very good today and there was no shouting or cheering. BJ is just such a grind though, but whatever it takes...to win!

I still don't get why anyone thinks stopping while ahead doesn't work. About the only thing it doesn't necessarily work for is getting comps, as in - if you win a grand or whatever it takes to get your juices flowing in ten minutes and just leave before you have earned any comps, but since we were comp'ed up front for this trip based on prior play, I didn't have to think about putting the hours in.

Will check in from the new resort tomorrow.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
TDVegas
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January 2nd, 2020 at 8:12:10 PM permalink
Quote: darkoz

I am pretty certain its set up as a barrier to anyone who is interested in the challenge.

And this way MDawg can claim his system was never verified because no one wanted to wager with fifty grand

Whenever you have such a challenge the rules have to be clear and distinct.

As I said above fuzzy rules here will make this a challenge that never occurs


That someone has to bring $50,000 raises red flags. Why can't someone just watch and record his action for 25-30 sessions x number of hands? I'm at a complete loss why someone has to play next to him for $50,000. He's not winning your money in this.

He said he's willing to have someone there. I would have more faith in this offer if it was "come and watch me play 25-30 sessions"...."record buy in, cash out". Post results here. Good or bad.
TDVegas
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January 2nd, 2020 at 8:18:13 PM permalink
Quote: MDawg

I still don't get why anyone thinks stopping while ahead doesn't work.


It will work...but makes a VERY important presumption that you WILL always be ahead from the start or, one would presume, that a negative start will always spin around to the positive. That's not gambling reality. You are gambling thousands and thousands of dollars, claim a long history of gambling and this is your mind set....that it's as simple as stopping when ahead? Smh.....

Do you use a martingale or loss progression strategy....IOW, chase losses?
beachbumbabs
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January 2nd, 2020 at 8:25:54 PM permalink
There are at least a dozen people here known to me who COULD show up with $50k cash. But none who would play a -EV game next to you, MDawg. Are they supposed to mirror your bets and have a sure win or something?

It's a meaningless requirement. The question is YOUR play and results, not theirs. Are you afraid to invite one or more of your naysayers to actually meet you and watch you play?
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
redietz
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January 2nd, 2020 at 9:25:11 PM permalink
MDawg doesn't really mean stopping when ahead when he says "stopping when ahead." He has no intention of actually stopping. He means "pausing when ahead." And then he will resume gambling at some future point in time.

This is the old argument that tries to define a pause in one's gambling as a stopping.

Why do I think people use this particular writing construction? I think if someone actually states that they will "stop for x amount of time while ahead" that the use of the phrase makes more clear the absurdity of the strategy and alleged claim. So claimants prefer to simply say "stopping when ahead." They of course don't mean that they will stop gambling. They mean they will pause.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
AxelWolf
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January 2nd, 2020 at 10:08:12 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

There are at least a dozen people here known to me who COULD show up with $50k cash. But none who would play a -EV game next to you, MDawg. Are they supposed to mirror your bets and have a sure win or something?

It's a meaningless requirement. The question is YOUR play and results, not theirs. Are you afraid to invite one or more of your naysayers to actually meet you and watch you play?

to my understanding he was trying to claim that he has a superior betting strategy and would prove it by winning and his Challenger.

As many of us have already pointed out, no one is going to want to sit and play a -EV game in order to win some kind of challenge. Assuming the the challenge had enough money on the line to cover the the cost of playing and then some. If MD what place is bets first each round then I'm sure somebody would take him up on his offer assuming the prize money was put into escrow.

Personally, I highly doubt he would even show up with $50,000 and play a minimum amount of hands and a minimum amount per hand.
As I said before, no betting both sides or having any partners offset bets.

That's the kind of bet I think should be made. Obviously I believe the bet would have to be less and whatever his theoretical loss is so not to give him an advantage if in fact you did show up and was successful.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
TomG
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January 2nd, 2020 at 10:34:11 PM permalink
Quote: redietz

5) Anyway, for readers going forward, once MDawg has reported if he's ahead lifetime and how many hands he's played, then readers have a baseline odds-against his having actually done it. As he reports in the future at his playing negative games, if he continues to report that he wins, then one can add the extra hours and hands onto the formula. The odds-against his having still won will grow as the months and trip reports continue. At some point, the odds will get extremely long, and people can continue to believe what they want to believe, or they can assign a probability to the likelihood that the tales are cumulatively true.



Given how consistently he wins and for how much, it is far more likely that the methods and strategies he has developed have given him an advantage over the casinos. It's like trying to assign a probability that Edward Thorpe is ahead after playing many thousands of hands of blackjack. If he is ahead, is it because he overcame some astronomical odds in a negative game, or is it because he was successful at using the strategies he wrote about to overcome those odds?
ChumpChange
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January 2nd, 2020 at 10:48:19 PM permalink
I'm trying to figure out how to get a $50K LOC when I'm unbanked (in Canada also).

What happens if one brings more than 10,000 USD with them into the US?
https://money.stackexchange.com/questions/71777/what-happens-if-one-brings-more-than-10-000-usd-with-them-into-the-us

TransferWise Borderless Account Review
http://transumo.com/transferwise-borderless-account/
MDawg
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January 3rd, 2020 at 12:12:14 AM permalink
You should start a thread about that might make a good topic. Overseas clients of mine use transferwise to send me money all the time, but they send it to a land based bank account of mine via transferwise. You might also want to check out the movie, Owning Mahowny. Your question is off topic for this thread.

My friend and I ate at the Wynn buffet. Whenever I go to the buffet I always get a four-top table, even if there are only two of us. Next thing you knew he brought these two Korean girls who couldn't speak English to our table. He was trying to get them to go to a Strip club with him.

"Strip club? You know what Strip club is?"

They were hamming it up for their own selfie pics, and giving us their phones to take pictures of them, but when I snapped a pic of them they acted indifferent as hell about being photographed. Was cute actually.



Then we went to high limits slots, my friend is the only one who played. He won some, about $700. at that "Pinball" slot machine he favors, cashed out, and abruptly pulled out his player card, then slid a hundred dollar bill into the machine.

"Now the machine doesn't know that it's _____." He said, saying his name.

I gathered the premise - that the machine was not going to give him any more because the casino was somehow controlling his wins, so he wanted to continue play as a different, anonymous player.

"You BELIEVE that?" I was incredulous.

He shrugged. "Gotta believe in something."

Inane as it sounded, those four words actually made a sort of sense.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
Minty
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January 3rd, 2020 at 12:31:38 AM permalink
Well at least you don't believe player card vs no player card changes things. I've always thought it's a funny thought. Why penalize those who have shown some loyalty to the casinos by making the games worse for them with their cards in? Doesn't make sense.
"Just because I'm not doing anything illegal, doesn't mean I won't have to defend myself someday." -Chip Reese
ChumpChange
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January 3rd, 2020 at 1:34:26 AM permalink
I've always thought there's a back room that loosens & tightens the machine depending on who is playing it, card or not.
darkoz
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January 3rd, 2020 at 4:14:16 AM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

I've always thought there's a back room that loosens & tightens the machine depending on who is playing it, card or not.



Never!

Truthfully casino management is more worried about their employees than the players.

If there was someone in a backroom that had that power better believe their distant cousins and friends would be alerted what "times" to play the machine.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
DRich
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January 3rd, 2020 at 7:14:12 AM permalink
Quote: darkoz

Never!

Truthfully casino management is more worried about their employees than the players.

If there was someone in a backroom that had that power better believe their distant cousins and friends would be alerted what "times" to play the machine.



About 25 years ago I was called to go to Reno on a Saturday to fix s software problem. Since it was a Saturday they paid for my wife to go with me. I was working in a back office and set my wife up on a computer with a program called Omniview. She would watch a pictorial of the slot floor and it shows you every machine color coded by winning sessions and losing sessions. She would see someone get off of a "hot" machine and she would run out and play it. I laughed but she enjoyed the exercise and it kept her busy while I was working.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
AxelWolf
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January 3rd, 2020 at 7:20:51 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

About 25 years ago I was called to go to Reno on a Saturday to fix s software problem. Since it was a Saturday they paid for my wife to go with me. I was working in a back office and set my wife up on a computer with a program called Omniview. She would watch a pictorial of the slot floor and it shows you every machine color coded by winning sessions and losing sessions. She would see someone get off of a "hot" machine and she would run out and play it. I laughed but she enjoyed the exercise and it kept her busy while I was working.

What was considered a session? Did the machine have to set idle for certain period of time? Was it based on a certain amount of spins?
Last edited by: AxelWolf on Jan 3, 2020
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
DRich
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January 3rd, 2020 at 7:23:58 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

What was considered a session? The machine have to set idle for certain period of time? Was it based on a certain amount of spins?



If the player was using a card, the session ended when the card came out. Otherwise, after sitting idle for "x" minutes.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
TigerWu
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January 3rd, 2020 at 7:56:12 AM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

I'm trying to figure out how to get a $50K LOC when I'm unbanked (in Canada also).



You can't get a line of credit if you don't have a bank account. At least that's what CET told me.
AxelWolf
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January 3rd, 2020 at 8:14:19 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

If the player was using a card, the session ended when the card came out. Otherwise, after sitting idle for "x" minutes.

What if they only spun a few times? How to calculate that it's a hot or cold session?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
MDawg
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January 3rd, 2020 at 8:15:23 AM permalink
The other players at my BJ table last night were incredulous that I had been here since Saturday. And impressed that I was up a couple grand (which ended up being three grand after last night's session) while having been here that long. "Hell, up a dollar after being here that long is good in my book." said this guy from Texas. I didn't mention that this was just the first leg of the trip.

The guy from Texas was talking about how great they were at taking care of you in the '70s in Vegas.

"If you were a CONSISTENT player, even playing just five ten dollars a hand, they would pick you up from the airport, take care of you really well, everything."

He was also talking about how quickly you got drinks back then.

"The pit boss would just clap his hands, and the waitress was THERE."

He is right about how slow service is these days, even in high limit. Two nights ago after I won and stopped I had ordered a green tea, and even though I sat there chatting with the dealer and pit boss for quite some time, the tea took so long that I just left without getting it. As I was walking away I saw her enter the high limit pit, and was going to circle back and give her a fiver anyway without even taking the tea, but I decided against it - if she was going to take that long she wasn't going to get the tip.

And last night at the high limit slots at Wynn we ordered drinks, including a Macallan for my player card superstitious friend, but the server took so long that we just left.


BTW as your attorney I advise you to buy on dips today. (As opposed to driving over to the Tropicana and picking up on Guy Lombardo.) I already made a nice little pot of money buying in the pre- and selling up to 20 points higher on stocks like AMZN. It's like...money from home.

My best friend used to hate when I used that expression to refer to how much money the dealer was paying out on a run.

"You gotta understand ____, when I call home to ask for money they just hang up on me."
Last edited by: MDawg on Jan 3, 2020
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
DRich
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January 3rd, 2020 at 8:25:22 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

What if they only spun a few times? How to calculate that it's a hot or cold session?



I don't remember exactly but it was probably just some percent above theo. This wasn't some analysis program, just something so the slot directors could see floor utilization and so they could see any big uncarded players and send someone out to greet them.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
darkoz
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January 3rd, 2020 at 8:29:34 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

I don't remember exactly but it was probably just some percent above theo. This wasn't some analysis program, just something so the slot directors could see floor utilization and so they could see any big uncarded players and send someone out to greet them.



So it was showing hot vs cold sessions?

Or big players vs small?

I.E. would they send someone out to an uncarded player because they were making max bets or because they were winning a lot (or losing a lot)?

Hot meaning machine was getting above expectations of theo or hot meaning it was paying out
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
darkoz
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January 3rd, 2020 at 8:34:11 AM permalink
As I wrote my book about my AP experiences so many crazy things happened that hurt our ability to make money.

Complaining to my daughter how I wish the AP life could go smoother she consoled me by stating:

"Dad, your book would be boring if you just wrote chapter after chapter of how you won this and won that. All the craziness in your life is fodder for an exciting book. You have a story to tell."

As I read the continuing posts about winning with no repercussions (real or imagined as they may be), I begin to see the wisdom of my daughter
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
TDVegas
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January 3rd, 2020 at 8:51:02 AM permalink
Quote: MDawg

BTW as your attorney I advise you to buy on dips today. (As opposed to driving over to the Tropicana and picking up on Guy Lombardo.) I already made a nice little pot of money buying in the pre- and selling up to 20 points higher on stocks like AMZN. It's like...money from home.


Why am I thinking that if it dropped $20 from your buy point.....you would have said nothing here.

It’s not difficult to see what’s going on here with this thread...

Enjoy.
TDVegas
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January 3rd, 2020 at 9:02:32 AM permalink
Quote: darkoz

As I wrote my book about my AP experiences so many crazy things happened that hurt our ability to make money.

Complaining to my daughter how I wish the AP life could go smoother she consoled me by stating:

"Dad, your book would be boring if you just wrote chapter after chapter of how you won this and won that. All the craziness in your life is fodder for an exciting book. You have a story to tell."

As I read the continuing posts about winning with no repercussions (real or imagined as they may be), I begin to see the wisdom of my daughter


Well said.
MDawg
MDawg
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January 3rd, 2020 at 9:08:54 AM permalink
re: the stock market
I've been doing this since I was a kid (stock trading and investing). I have a massive long term portfolio, but I also trade extra shares most every day.

If AMZN had dropped lower I would have just averaged in more shares, and held however long it took.

It's not gambling the stock market is a sure thing over time for industry leader stocks, and even my short term trades have a close to 100% success rate. Just stick with trading the top stocks that tend to go up over time. If you want a list, pay me for it, or do your own research.

A friend of mine sold all his stocks at DOW 23.5K just before that massive dip in December 2018. (Actually he didn't own individual stocks, he was in a mutual fund tied directly to the DOW JONES index.) He was crowing about how he got out before it got really bad. He put all his money in a one year CD. I told him that the stock market would recover and that he'd never get back in because after it soared above his exit point, he would be loath to re-buy. I even predicted that we would have a full recovery by March 2019, while he predicted a long and dark recession. He's a professional poker player I should have made him a money bet, but anyway, he was spectacularly wrong and I was right. I've been around so many of these panics and drops, like the one in 2008, to know that buying when the market is down is the right thing to do, definitely not selling.

Anyway see here we are a year later at close to DOW 29K, his CD matured several weeks ago, and he's not going to buy back now because the DOW is almost 5500 points higher than where he sold at, he's done, ruined from investing for the rest of his life unless he swallows his pride and rebuys much higher than what he sold at.

The right time to invest in the stock market...is whenever you have money.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
SOOPOO
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January 3rd, 2020 at 9:20:51 AM permalink
Quote: MDawg

re: the stock market
I've been doing this since I was a kid (stock trading and investing). I have a massive long term portfolio, but I also trade extra shares most every day.

If AMZN had dropped lower I would have just averaged in more shares, and held however long it took.

It's not gambling the stock market is a sure thing over time for industry leader stocks, and even my short term trades have a close to 100% success rate. Just stick with trading the top stocks that tend to go up over time. If you want a list, pay me for it, or do your own research.

A friend of mine sold all his stocks at DOW 23.5K just before that massive dip in December 2018. (Actually he didn't own individual stocks, he was in a mutual fund tied directly to the DOW JONES index.) He was crowing about how he got out before it got really bad. He put all his money in a one year CD. I told him that the stock market would recover and that he'd never get back in because after it soared above his exit point, he would be loath to re-buy. I even predicted that we would have a full recovery by March 2019, while he predicted a long and dark recession. He's a professional poker player I should have made him a money bet, but anyway, he was spectacularly wrong and I was right. I've been around so many of these panics and drops, like the one in 2008, to know that buying when the market is down is the right thing to do, definitely not selling.

Anyway see here we are a year later at close to DOW 29K, his CD matured several weeks ago, and he's not going to buy back now because the DOW is almost 5500 points higher than where he sold at, he's done, ruined from investing for the rest of his life unless he swallows his pride and rebuys much higher than what he sold at.

The right time to invest in the stock market...is whenever you have money.



In general I agree with everything here.... except 'what is an industry leader'? There was a time you'd identify ENRON as one. Dell was the leader, not Apple! AOL the boss, not Google.... I've posted before... The short term trading you do is what my B in L does for a living.
Also well documented here is my buy and hold stock philosophy. It's proven its worth over the past half century.
redietz
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January 3rd, 2020 at 9:24:46 AM permalink
Quote: TDVegas

Why am I thinking that if it dropped $20 from your buy point.....you would have said nothing here.

It’s not difficult to see what’s going on here with this thread...

Enjoy.




Baccarat. Blackjack. Stock market. As Charlie Sheen said...."Winning!!!!" Charlie's not the only one with tiger blood in his veins.

Ka-ching, ka-ching!

I think I am in simpatico with TDVegas. I will just echo the "Enjoy."
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
MDawg
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January 3rd, 2020 at 9:27:34 AM permalink
Yes there are spectacular exceptions to the industry leader buy in idea, Soopoo you are right, but for whatever reason, probably just luck, I haven't owned large amounts of the industry leader losers. I did own some JCP for a while, which I did eventually sell at a loss, but a very long time ago, not a huge loss. I also own a very small amount of GE, which I still hold.

Dell, etc: I suppose the reason I never got into PC manufacturers is that I have always been an AAPL user. I did buy MSFT and held it a long time and did very well at it, but eventually sold most all of it and have been holding a huge amount of AAPL since 2006-2007. I love AAPL stock, products, everything about it. So there's one free tip, BUY AND HOLD AAPL. lol

(I was pretty much cut in half on AAPL in 2008, but I did not sell.)
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
SOOPOO
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January 3rd, 2020 at 9:44:08 AM permalink
Quote: MDawg

Yes there are spectacular exceptions to the industry leader buy in idea, Soopoo you are right, but for whatever reason, probably just luck, I haven't owned large amounts of the industry leader losers. I did own some JCP for a while, which I did eventually sell at a loss, but a very long time ago, not a huge loss. I also own a very small amount of GE, which I still hold.

Dell, etc: I suppose the reason I never got into PC manufacturers is that I have always been an AAPL user. I did buy MSFT and held it a long time and did very well at it, but eventually sold most all of it and have been holding a huge amount of AAPL since 2006-2007. I love AAPL stock, products, everything about it. So there's one free tip, BUY AND HOLD AAPL. lol

(I was pretty much cut in half on AAPL in 2008, but I did not sell.)



Since this is the MDawg thread, I guess this isn't a hijack! I have owned AAPL since I formed my WOV stock portfolio. It has quadrupled or such since I got in. I also own a bunch of GE, which has halved I think.....
I am considering selling half my AAPL position.... I see too many ads for Android, Google Pixel, etc....
I'll bump the WoV stock thread if you are interested to take a look....
darkoz
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January 3rd, 2020 at 9:46:31 AM permalink
Damn, where did I go wrong buying all that Blockbuster and Circuit City stock when it was at its lowest?

j/k!
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
MDawg
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January 3rd, 2020 at 9:52:31 AM permalink
Yes! AAPL is awesome. Nice going, S.

Recently got their new 16 inch MBP laptop too, I suppose I am supporting the value of my own stock by doing so. Recently bought another one also 16 inch for the wife too. That's double support! 😆



So now I am waiting to see if the host will comp all of her spa charges, which come in around a grand. I put in my case. We shall see.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
TDVegas
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January 3rd, 2020 at 10:12:50 AM permalink
If you wanted a pat on the back....you would have posted the AMZN trade when you did it pre Market....so the pricing could be later verified with the rise in price.

Posting a $20 gain long after it happened is about as useful as past posting a horse race.

Enjoy. We all know what’s going on here.
PokerGrinder
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January 3rd, 2020 at 10:17:09 AM permalink
I mean it is as useful as posting that he’s a lifetime winner at baccarat. Btw Mdawg I’m not saying you’re lying or that you’re not for that matter. All I’m saying is anyone can claim anything they want on the internet and nobody here has proof one way or the other.
You can shear a sheep a hundred times, but you can skin it only once. — Amarillo Slim Preston
OnceDear
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MDawg
January 3rd, 2020 at 10:18:53 AM permalink
Quote: MDawg

BTW as your attorney I advise you to buy on dips today.

Is this professional financial advice covered by any sort of professional indemnity insurance? Or is he covering any liability out of his own fortune, which should easily cover it?

Quote: MDawg

If AMZN had dropped lower I would have just averaged in more shares, and held however long it took.

Quelle surprise that MDawg is an adherent to a 'dollar cost averaging' strategy.

* Fear not: I wouldn't take MDawg's advice, professional or not, free or paid.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
TigerWu
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January 3rd, 2020 at 10:31:07 AM permalink
Quote: MDawg


The guy from Texas was talking about how great they were at taking care of you in the '70s in Vegas.

"If you were a CONSISTENT player, even playing just five ten dollars a hand, they would pick you up from the airport, take care of you really well, everything."



Ten dollars back in 1975 was the equivalent to almost $50 today, so that makes sense. If you play $50 a hand consistently nowadays, you can start scoring free rooms and promotional play after just a few hours.
MDawg
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January 3rd, 2020 at 10:45:56 AM permalink
TDVegas: Why, so others could buy in and affect my trade? I buy a thousand shares of AMZN at a time, I am like a Mack Truck going in and out of a freeway lane, I have a hard time getting filled at times, especially in the pre or AH. If you want to learn about my trades as they happen, pay me for my time and knowledge! (WITH the disclaimer that OnceDear mentions, although I am series 65 licensed, but I haven't done much with it other than for close friends and family.)

What I did do once though, just to show some internet naysayers like you what is really going on, is flash on and off 1000 - 2000 blocks of pre-market orders to buy shares of GOOGL at a price that was below market enough to show on level 2, but off market enough to not get filled, just to prove what was really going on. But this is not a stock trading forum. In fact, I am ready for the next subject!

As long as we are digressing about stocks, let's digress further, about shaving!

This is the shaver that I normally use, Art of Shaving (AOS) Lexington model:

I have more than one at home, one that I travel with, one I keep in our steam room, and one that I keep as backup. But wouldn't you know it, I forgot to bring even one of them on this trip.

These are the shavers I have with me now:

The Gillette one is functionally identical to the AOS Lexington, except that it costs a helluva lot more and supposedly pulses versus just vibrates. Anyway, I got sold on it enough to buy a few Lexingtons, but I forgot to bring one with me entirely, and luckily had the Gillette in my gym bag.

The other one, on top, is brand new. It is the GilletteLabs that heats up the metal strip underneath the 5 strip blades. The heating element is within the blade itself, and these blades cost a mint (fifty bucks for 8), but supposedly they are much sharper than typical Gillette fusion 5 blades and last much longer. I hope so.

On the bottom is a new safety razor I bought. I have two at home, including one where you may twist the bottom and adjust the exposure of the safety blade, but I have wanted to get another one for traveling so I went ahead and did that now when I got the new heated razor.

Now, when shaving one must use some kind of pre-shave oil, first. Also, I prefer to use a real badger brush and shaving cream like the AOS stuff (versus just shaving soap, which dries the skin, or anything out of a can, that contains all those chemicals). This badger brush is one I had in my gym bag but at home and for travel I used a silvertip badger brush which is the ne plus ultra of shaving brushes.
Here are the blades:


Anyway, back to shaving, I do like this new heated razor. But what I wish they had done is combined the pulsating Lexington with the heated element. Why do we have to decided between pulsating and heat, why not both? O! the ignominy of it. 😜

The safety razor, if you know how to use it, is actually much less irritating to the skin than the Fusion five blade. With a safety razor you let it just glide down your skin on its own weight, because if you press at all, you may start bleeding. Unless I have to go into court or otherwise look ultra sharp for something, I tend to shave every three days since my skin is sensitive, but with a safety razor I can get away with doing a downward only shave on any day, even two days in a row. Funny how after all this advance in technology, people still use safety (and even straight edge) razors, on the theory that there is such a large razor's edge. The cost of a pack of these safety razors is minimal compared to Fusion 5 blades.

There are higher grade safety razors, but these were all I could find on short notice in Vegas.

I prefer to shave in the steam room or if no steam room available, in the shower, with a handheld mirror. In the steam room I keep the shower that is in there running to rinse off the mirror and blade regularly.

And there you have it, MDawg's shaving recommendations:
either an AOS Lexington pulse Fusion 5 razor, or a GilletteLabs heated Fusion 5,
with some kind of safety razor for off days when you need to look a little more shaved, but don't want the full irritation of an up and down Fusion 5 shave.

And of course...use that pre shaving oil, and a good lubricating shaving cream with a silvertip or at least pure badger brush.

Post shave: don't get me started. You know how much skincare I pack, even while traveling:

Okay this is Day Three so I must shave, which is what prompted me to bring up the subject to begin with.

Enjoy.
Last edited by: MDawg on Jan 3, 2020
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
DRich
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January 3rd, 2020 at 10:45:59 AM permalink
Quote: darkoz

So it was showing hot vs cold sessions?

Or big players vs small?

I.E. would they send someone out to an uncarded player because they were making max bets or because they were winning a lot (or losing a lot)?

Hot meaning machine was getting above expectations of theo or hot meaning it was paying out



Generally they would send someone out that has high coin in and isn't using a card. They want to track that person. If they won't sign up for a card they may expedite it to surveillance to follow the person and report what they are playing.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
TDVegas
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January 3rd, 2020 at 11:00:29 AM permalink
Quote: MDawg

TDVegas: Why, so others could buy in and affect my trade?


LOL....Ok. Comic relief offered too.

Enjoy.
MDawg
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January 3rd, 2020 at 11:12:41 AM permalink
Until you've traded 1000 - 3000 share blocks of a stock that costs $1000 - $2000. per share, you are not qualified to comment about how other traders might affect what you are doing, let alone laugh.

Even when I try to sell I have to sometimes put the order in at last second, if I leave it up for too long invariably some punk retail or algo jumps in with a .01 lower price. Or ease it in in segments. Same with buy orders, they jump in with a .01 higher price. They line up ta getchya!

You really have no idea, I am sorry.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
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