Poll

19 votes (54.28%)
3 votes (8.57%)
8 votes (22.85%)
4 votes (11.42%)
No votes (0%)
1 vote (2.85%)

35 members have voted

FleaStiff
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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January 29th, 2011 at 6:37:16 AM permalink
Quote: PaiGowFan

I'm not bringing my last dollar to the casino. I'm bringing what I'm willing to lose.

Good. Yet risk of ruin is still the right measure to consider. Risk of ruin is a phrase wherein the "ruin" does not refer to your personal finances but your bankroll. As I understand the risk of ruin calculations its basically a way to determine that you give yourself a fair shake when confronting that dreaded "variance" factor. It merely assures that whatever capital you risk gets a fair shake in case Lady Luck fails to smile favorably upon you. Define for yourself an "average" day of games and bets and the risk of ruin totals should see you get a good run for your money. (Though do remember, tips, errors, etc.).

If your first day is profitable that may be all that you need and you might be able to continue without even risking further inroads into your bankroll. The main thing is that you have enough to survive a frequently encountered trend wherein the house keeps winning.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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January 29th, 2011 at 7:07:58 AM permalink
Quote: PaiGowFan



I've got to look closer, I thought it was Dan
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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January 29th, 2011 at 7:17:29 AM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

What game will you play?
Will you follow Basic Strategy?
Consult chart at Easy.Vegas (which is at 90 percent avoidance of Gambler's Ruin)
Then adjust for:
...Tips to CW and Dealers.
...Dealer Errors
...Player Errors (likely to increase over "time" (ie, alcohol consumption).



Is this what you are talking about?
Last edited by: unnamed administrator on Aug 19, 2019
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
P90
P90
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January 29th, 2011 at 7:45:33 AM permalink
Risk of ruin statistics are important whichever way you play and with whatever purpose.

However, keep in mind that the 20-bet suggested bankroll is extremely likely to be blown in a day. Here are Wizard's calculations: http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix12.html

As you can see, if you say bet 2 units half the time, your risk of ruin jumps twice. What's more, you need 4-8 reserve units to cover doubles and splits. All things considered, I wouldn't approach the table with less than 40 bets (actually, I quit at 40 bets unless the deck is hot). If not counting, 50 is enough for a session.

A week of intermittent play can be treated as one long session, and you need about 150 bets to cover it with bet increases and reserve accounted for. But having more never hurts, unless you are a compulsive gambler who always blows it all away.
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soulhunt79
soulhunt79
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January 30th, 2011 at 1:45:38 AM permalink
Mine is roughly 40x/day. Any BJ table I go to I start with 10X minimum, so this would be going up to 4 tables and losing everything. Rarely does that happen, but that is about what I take each trip.

I do know I rarely stick to a strick table limit though. Sometimes I'll play 50 minimum, and others I'll go to O'sheas and play 5 minimum.
wonderwarthog
wonderwarthog
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February 4th, 2011 at 11:34:41 PM permalink
I always think it's interesting that few people talk in terms of winning. I'm a small player and usually budget about $500 a day, sometimes $1,000. My aim is to double my money or lose it. If I lose $500 in ten minutes, that's it for the day. If I win $500 in six hours, I'm done. I admit that I've gone past double shooting craps if I got on a roll, but with my bankroll, I'm usually only good for one or two craps sessions in a three day stay.
mkl654321
mkl654321
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February 4th, 2011 at 11:50:21 PM permalink
Quote: wonderwarthog

I always think it's interesting that few people talk in terms of winning. I'm a small player and usually budget about $500 a day, sometimes $1,000. My aim is to double my money or lose it. If I lose $500 in ten minutes, that's it for the day. If I win $500 in six hours, I'm done. I admit that I've gone past double shooting craps if I got on a roll, but with my bankroll, I'm usually only good for one or two craps sessions in a three day stay.



The reason for that is that most people don't gamble to win--they gamble to have fun. And if you're on a short bankroll, the major question might be, how do I get the most fun for my money? If, on the other hand, making money was your primary concern, you should find the best bet available and bet your entire bankroll.

When you think about it, "double your money" is pretty meaningless, since you haven't really doubled your money unless that $500 was all the money you had in the world.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
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February 5th, 2011 at 7:39:44 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Is this what you are talking about?


Yes. Thanks. https://easy.vegas/gambling/basicbet .
Its a very bare bones chart but it shows just what units are required to stay in the game with a 90 percent chance of avoiding being ruined by having your bankroll wiped out thru normal variance.
A good many of those play rates appear to be rounded off figures that may need to be updated, but I doubt the net effect of such errors is all that great. Some of the play rates should be adjusted based upon the casino: A Strip craps game generally goes faster than a Downtown one and supposedly Boulder Strip will be the slowest of all.
Last edited by: unnamed administrator on Aug 19, 2019
teddys
teddys
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February 5th, 2011 at 8:40:45 AM permalink
Quote: wonderwarthog

I always think it's interesting that few people talk in terms of winning. I'm a small player and usually budget about $500 a day, sometimes $1,000. My aim is to double my money or lose it. If I lose $500 in ten minutes, that's it for the day. If I win $500 in six hours, I'm done. I admit that I've gone past double shooting craps if I got on a roll, but with my bankroll, I'm usually only good for one or two craps sessions in a three day stay.

Whoa! Great screenname.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
PaiGowFan
PaiGowFan
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February 13th, 2011 at 5:29:14 PM permalink
Quote: P90

Risk of ruin statistics are important whichever way you play and with whatever purpose.



The real question is what is your objective. If your goal is to survive - that is, not run out of money, then risk of ruin is what you need to think about. I would like to play and put a certain amount in play each day. That's what is fun for me. If I bring $10,000 and set my bet size so that I will to 99% confidence survive, then I am likely to be +/- $3000 at the end of the day. It is unlikely I will come close to putting $10,000 in play. That is, it is unlikely I will end the day +/- $10,000. For me, the bet size, if I want to prevent ruin, is too small. Of course, the risk I'm taking is that I bust out. In fact, It could happen early in the afternoon/evening and I'm done for the night.

Keep in mind, I do not want to be done for the trip, so I make sure to budget for each day.

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