seabarrister
seabarrister
Joined: Sep 8, 2021
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Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
September 11th, 2021 at 8:41:54 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Quote: Wizard

Not that this was what was being asked, but here are some expected value figures by bet level and maximum payout, assuming optimal strategy based on no cap.

Bet $50,000 $80,000 $100,000
15 -0.050175 -0.049149 -0.049149
20 -0.051457 -0.049149 -0.049149
25 -0.052227 -0.050380 -0.049149
50 -0.053766 -0.052842 -0.052227
75 -0.054894 -0.053663 -0.053253
100 -0.056351 -0.054074 -0.053766
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    Boom!!! What I did is verified! Thanks!
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    Quote: seabarrister

    ASK THE WIZARD



    As for the effect on house edge, and assuming that my analysis above is correct and that the cap has no effect on optimum strategy, the return for the royal drops from .006156 to 5/6 of that at $15 (100/120) or .005130 and increases the house edge from 4.9149% to 5.0175% (and this change worsens as the ante increases above $15).

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    as is this from post 1... but many thanks for fleshing it out with the additional ante amounts and payout caps!

    Also, the work on the 2nd street bets was helpful as well... though we may have to talk about your music selection at some point ;)
    Mission146
    Mission146
    Joined: May 15, 2012
    • Threads: 133
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    September 11th, 2021 at 9:00:03 AM permalink
    Quote: seabarrister



    as is this from post 1... but many thanks for fleshing it out with the additional ante amounts and payout caps!

    Also, the work on the 2nd street bets was helpful as well... though we may have to talk about your music selection at some point ;)

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    You're quite correct with the way you determined the increase to House Edge, but I couldn't verify it without verifying it...and I'm not going to verify it without typing it since I would have to type it anyway.

    Also, others can use the step-by-step method that I used to determine the impacts of Maximum Aggregate Payouts as they may relate to other fixed odds games. Suppose someone has a question about Let it Ride, or maybe Pai-Gow Poker Bonus (side bet) paytable with a Maximum Aggregate Payout on it...I can just go back to this post myself and say, "Oh, that's the method I used, it will work here, too."

    My taste in music is beyond reproach. Everyone knows that. :)
    https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
    Deucekies
    Deucekies
    Joined: Jan 20, 2014
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    Dieter
    September 11th, 2021 at 2:43:27 PM permalink
    The thing that caught my eye in the OP: Does it really happen where the table minimum gets shorted by the aggregate?

    As Wizard said, the largest ending bet is 10x the ante. You would think that the aggregate would never be less than (table-min)×(10)×(500). In fact, I believe that is illegal in WA state. I don't know what the legal restrictions are on aggregates in Nevada.

    If you want a $50,000 aggregate, your table min should never be more than $10. If you want a $15 min, your aggregate should be no less than $75,000.
    Casinos are not your friends, they want your money. But so does Disneyland. And there is no chance in hell that you will go to Disneyland and come back with more money than you went with. - AxelWolf and Mickeycrimm
    ChumpChange
    ChumpChange
    Joined: Jun 15, 2018
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    September 11th, 2021 at 3:03:25 PM permalink
    The game is severely crippled. They need to add an extra "0" or two to the aggregates. The low payouts are likely illegal but if you just bet 4X your ante in total you'd make a $25 maximum bet to payout $50K.
    seabarrister
    seabarrister
    Joined: Sep 8, 2021
    • Threads: 2
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    September 11th, 2021 at 3:12:43 PM permalink
    Quote: Deucekies

    The thing that caught my eye in the OP: Does it really happen where the table minimum gets shorted by the aggregate?

    As Wizard said, the largest ending bet is 10x the ante. You would think that the aggregate would never be less than (table-min)×(10)×(500). In fact, I believe that is illegal in WA state. I don't know what the legal restrictions are on aggregates in Nevada.

    If you want a $50,000 aggregate, your table min should never be more than $10. If you want a $15 min, your aggregate should be no less than $75,000.

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    If I were their lawyer, and I am not, my argument would be that the minimum bet is e minimum amount to play, which is 4x Antes, not 10x. As the plain meaning of Ďminimumí the the least amount you are REQUIRED to bet to play the gameÖ yes you CAN bet more (and must to achieve maximum return) the player is only required to bet 4x to play to the end. This argument supports an aggregate limit of 2000 antes (or 30,000) at $15. That doesnít make this the right argument or the right policy for the casino, but itís available to them if they want it.

    It isnít often that the casino gives the players worse odds for risking more money, but thatís absolutely what theyíre doing here.
    Mission146
    Mission146
    Joined: May 15, 2012
    • Threads: 133
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    September 11th, 2021 at 6:53:17 PM permalink
    I just look at it as petty. As we see, the change in House Edge on an already high(ish) edge carnival game doesnít even go up by that much, so itís a straight cash out at once decision.

    You look at it with Optimal strategy, $15 bets, should pay $60,000. Does ten grand mean more to the player or the casino?

    Iíve witnessed people raise this game across in the dark, that 10k is a rounding error to them.

    Itís really simple to me: If you canít pay the paytable, donít accept the bet.
    Last edited by: Mission146 on Sep 12, 2021
    https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
    ChumpChange
    ChumpChange
    Joined: Jun 15, 2018
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    September 11th, 2021 at 6:57:08 PM permalink
    Is MS Stud in the high limit room with higher bets and payouts? Do they have a $100 minimum with a $500,000 maximum payout? At least that would be fair, for $100 or $125 bets. But it 100% thwarts my progressions.
    ChumpChange
    ChumpChange
    Joined: Jun 15, 2018
    • Threads: 71
    • Posts: 3179
    September 12th, 2021 at 1:00:20 AM permalink
    Been playing at the Wiz's site for hours. Starting bankroll is $50,000
    I tried playing $10 antes and got quads. I was only down $525 before I hit it.


    I raised my bets to $100 antes and kept losing more than I was winning. I was down $33,615 before I hit a Full House.


    I raised my ante to $500, lost, reloaded the page, and lost again. But here's the message I get when I only have 7X the ante available to bet.
    Last edited by: ChumpChange on Sep 12, 2021

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