cwazy
cwazy
Joined: Mar 18, 2016
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May 25th, 2016 at 10:30:52 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

It wouldn't hurt, NOR HELP them is the real point of the math. It's literally just gambling and thus picking numbers you see on the board does NOTHING for you either way. You're absolutely correct in saying "well, it wouldn't hurt..." but I hope you realize that holds equally true for "well, that wouldn't help..."



Quote: MathExtremist

It absolutely can hurt. If the wheel is biased and you mis-identify the bias and bet on the wrong numbers, you're playing a game with a stronger house edge. The trick is to identify not only whether there is a bias but what it is -- and only then to bet accordingly. Seeing one number repeat three times in 20 spins isn't a valid indicator of bias.

If you can't accurately identify whether a bias exists and what it is, guessing can absolutely lead to worse results.



These two statements are at odds with each other. It either can have an effect or it can't. Anyway it was just a thought.
MrGoldenSun
MrGoldenSun
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May 25th, 2016 at 10:37:24 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

This literally gives zero extra edge as there is no confirmed bias and repeat numbers in the short run are VERY COMMON. Hell, the wheel could have a bias on the other side and if you see 17 three times and start betting it you're actually hurting yourself unknowingly. In the end without a bias each spin is an independent trial, thus the past has NO EFFECT at all on the future.



It is zero extra edge if the wheel is unbiased, but in the case where the wheel is biased, you will be doing better than -1/38 in expectation.

I think you are misunderstanding the logic. I suspect maybe you have (reasonably) an instinctive negative reflex to anything which appears to be a "roulette system" post, and aren't simply thinking of this as a puzzle.

Quote:

picking numbers you see on the board does NOTHING for you either way.



This is not true for a biased wheel.
MrGoldenSun
MrGoldenSun
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May 25th, 2016 at 10:41:14 AM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

If you can't accurately identify whether a bias exists and what it is, guessing can absolutely lead to worse results.



If the wheel is biased, then basing your future bets on the past results has a better expectation than picking numbers randomly. You are more likely to be betting on the numbers towards which the wheel is biased. In your terms, you are more likely to be "guessing right" than you are to be "guessing wrong." Which means the house edge would be reduced.
TwoFeathersATL
TwoFeathersATL
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May 25th, 2016 at 10:53:41 AM permalink
Let me think this thru, village idiot mind you.
You bet the numbers, or their neighbors, that seem to be 'hitting'.
Worst case scenario, you are dumfuddled, and there is no direct correlation.
That's the worst case scenario ;-)

Betting those numbers couldn't possibly be worse than some other numbers, could it?

I mean, if you gonna play Roulette, try whatever you like.
If you play big, you might get a buffet or something ;-)
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
Romes
Romes
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May 25th, 2016 at 11:17:04 AM permalink
Quote: cwazy

That simply isn't true. There are teams that have exploited biased wheels and made millions of dollars. Do a search for "billy walters roulette".

I agree with you. A biased roulette wheel can be very profitable... It doesn't just shave a little off the edge; it makes it a solid advantage.

But you have to spend 8k rolls confirming a bias... On a wheel you can identify to know if they've changed it out... Then after you start winning a lot they might just change the wheel out anyways... and you always need to worry about dealer shooting (which after seeing some VERY convincing videos I'm a firm believer in). For all of those reasons a roulette bias can be very profitable, but not very probable (in my opinion) and why I have never chased one.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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May 25th, 2016 at 11:43:42 AM permalink
Quote: cwazy

Assume a random, recreational (losing) player wants to take advantage of any bias a given roulette wheel might have. They don't know that a bias exists on a particular wheel, and they are OK with playing in that situation, but if a bias does exist, they want to be a beneficiary of it. Assume they play a simple bet, such as red/black. Would the proper strategy to take advantage of any potential bias be to simply follow the last result - e.g. bet red if the previous result was red, or something more nuanced than that, such as betting the color that came up most out of the previous X spins?

If a given wheel has a bias to a given number, if that number were red, then red would indeed repeat more often than black. It seems that such a strategy in any game where a mechanical bias might develop would at least deliver the possibility of the player doing better than the theoretical loss for the game would imply. Am I way off base here?

I suggest you research Laurance Scott he talks about both tilted wheels and bias wheels.
Predictive visual roulette on tilted wheels. IIRC He talks about following "hot numbers" *while tracking* it's not something he's advocating. This guy seems very knowledgeable and not to wacko. I think his estimated number of roulette tables beatable are highly exaggerated in order to sell crap.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
cwazy
cwazy
Joined: Mar 18, 2016
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May 25th, 2016 at 12:54:01 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I suggest you research Laurance Scott he talks about both tilted wheels and bias wheels.
Predictive visual roulette on tilted wheels. IIRC He talks about following "hot numbers" *while tracking* it's not something he's advocating. This guy seems very knowledgeable and not to wacko. I think his estimated number of roulette tables beatable are highly exaggerated in order to sell crap.



Interesting idea, I'll take a look. This isn't for me, I simply know someone that likes playing roulette and won't stop no matter how bad I tell him the game is. I figured maybe I could come up with a basic strategy of sorts that I could pass along that might at least give him a chance every once in a while if he happened upon a biased wheel.
TigerWu
TigerWu
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May 25th, 2016 at 12:56:32 PM permalink
Quote: cwazy

That simply isn't true. There are teams that have exploited biased wheels and made millions of dollars. Do a search for "billy walters roulette".



I found conflicting information on Billy Walters. Some say he was exploiting a biased wheel, but I also found this:

"Sources at Caesars Palace say that after Walters beat them for more than $1 million in one sitting, the wheel was sent to NASA for an examination and dissection that revealed specific biases - but not for the numbers Walters had been playing. Nobody knows his secret, and he isn't saying, though he admits he has been barred from playing roulette in the major casinos."

However, if we assume he WAS exploiting a biased wheel, we have to take into account that he supposedly had entire teams clocking wheels and was betting thousands of dollars at a time with a giant bankroll. Additionally, he only played for one session, albeit one that lasted many hours, before being cut off. I still say that even if he was taking advantage of a biased wheel, that doesn't necessarily mean he managed to get a negative house edge. It's possible the bias cut the edge down to less than a percent, and he was just getting lucky since he only played for such a short time.

Regardless, even if biased wheels are a thing that can be exploited, I don't think it's plausible for the average person. But let me know if you find one and I'll help you test it out....!!
MrGoldenSun
MrGoldenSun
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May 25th, 2016 at 1:19:39 PM permalink
Quote: TwoFeathersATL

You bet the numbers, or their neighbors, that seem to be 'hitting'.
Worst case scenario, you are dumfuddled, and there is no direct correlation.
That's the worst case scenario ;-)



This is correct. But if you bet the "hot" numbers, then unlike if you bet randomly, you have a different best case scenario...
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
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May 25th, 2016 at 1:35:27 PM permalink
I have one word for those thinking of exploiting biased wheels -- Argentina.

Roulette is huge in that country most casinos use gambling equipment that looks at least 20 years old.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.

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