DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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April 1st, 2010 at 8:21:39 AM permalink
Quote: Croupier

I cannot say that I was making any conscious effort to look either at or away from the wheel when releasing the ball.

OK. I think we're back to a point where management should be nervous.


Quote: Croupier

One standard procedure we have that I forgot to mention is that the ball and wheel must travel in opposite directions, and these directions must be reversed every new spin. I dont know if this affects anything or not.

Spinning in opposite directions is standard all over. But reversing directions? I'm not sure about that. Interesting. Now I gotta watch more closely on my next trip.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
PapaChubby
PapaChubby
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April 1st, 2010 at 8:52:30 AM permalink
Croupier,

Thanks for your dedicated effort in conducting this experiment. For starters, I am amazed by the magnitude of what you have done. I don't play roulette, but I'm guessing that a spin requires something like 20 seconds to execute and record? So 20,000 spins requires 111 hours of effort? Did you do this 8 hours a day for two weeks, or 1 hour per day for 3 months? Or am I missing something?

I am stunned by the results of your experiment. I never would've guessed that the randomness built into the wheel design could be so effectively overcome.

To expand on some of the earlier questions: Is there ANYTHING that you did during these spins which was obviously outside the casino procedures? Wheel speed? Ball speed? If management/surveillance were observing your experiment, would it be obvious to them that you were doing something against the rules?

And a follow up: If you weren't necessarily looking at the wheel during the spin, what on Earth were you doing to control the outcome? Forgive me if I'm boorishly requesting that you reveal any secrets. I'm just trying to figure out how I would go about trying (unsuccessfully, I'm sure) to control the outcome, and every scenario I can think of requires precise, repeatable controllability AND visual feedback of the wheel status at some point in the process.
Nareed
Nareed
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April 1st, 2010 at 9:13:28 AM permalink
Quote: PapaChubby

Forgive me if I'm boorishly requesting that you reveal any secrets. I'm just trying to figure out how I would go about trying (unsuccessfully, I'm sure) to control the outcome, and every scenario I can think of requires precise, repeatable controllability AND visual feedback of the wheel status at some point in the process.



Ha. Just you wait until it's published in a peer-reviewed journal (anyone interesting in funding the Casino Stats and Probability Quarterly?) Our friend from England will be lambasted for not measuring his regulation casino balls down to nearest third of an angstrom, among other things ;)

Seriously, some random-seeming events are not that random when you look at them closely, or under certain well-defined circumstances. The wheel is a good example.

Years ago a team of physicists figured out they could predict with a fair degree of accuracy in which octant (an eighth of the wheel) a ball would alnd on if they knew the ball speed and the wheel speed. They even thought up and built a portable (sort of) somputer they could use to actually cheat the casinos.

The scheme dind't pan out but only because their computer gear was too primitive for the task. They used electromagnetic solenoids to signal numbers by pressing them onto the player's skin, for heaven's sakes. These days it would be easy, but very expensive, to build something the size of a cell-phone, with IR laser and sensors embedded in a pair of glasses, reporting the octant through a bluetooth earpiece. To my knowledge no one has tried this yet.

Except on TV. A CSI ep had a team cheat a casino just like that. And an ep of the old Mission Impossible series did them one better: They could predicit the exact number 100% of the time, with a computer compact enough to fit in Cinnamon's purse, and the result was displayed in the date portion of an analog watch. But that's TV for you (Ironically in another ep, remember this was in the 60s, they required a monstrously large device to hide a TV camera).

Oh, should people try the prediction method, the casinos could easily counter it by calling "No More Bets" before the dealer releases the ball.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
Croupier
Croupier
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April 1st, 2010 at 9:31:52 AM permalink
Quote: PapaChubby


Croupier, Thanks for your dedicated effort in conducting this experiment. For starters, I am amazed by the magnitude of what you have done. I don't play roulette, but I'm guessing that a spin requires something like 20 seconds to execute and record? So 20,000 spins requires 111 hours of effort? Did you do this 8 hours a day for two weeks, or 1 hour per day for 3 months? Or am I missing something?



I did it over the course of about 3 hours a day for roughly a month. The length of each run of spins varied due to the fact that I didnt want to do it if people were playing, both to protect myself, and for fairness to the customers. It also depended on the pit boss, as they decide which table you go on when, so I spent time dealing BJ and 3 Card too, which slowed down the process.

Quote: PapaChubby


To expand on some of the earlier questions: Is there ANYTHING that you did during these spins which was obviously outside the casino procedures? Wheel speed? Ball speed? If management/surveillance were observing your experiment, would it be obvious to them that you were doing something against the rules?



The only thing I did was try to keep the speed of the wheel and the ball fairly consistent over the course of the number of spins. I dont think this is against the rules as such, but dealers are encouraged to vary the speed of the wheel and the ball. AS I said earlier, surveillance and management are not too much of a problem. If pulled up on it I would explain that I was simply playing a game with myself.

Quote: PapaChubby

And a follow up: If you weren't necessarily looking at the wheel during the spin, what on Earth were you doing to control the outcome? Forgive me if I'm boorishly requesting that you reveal any secrets. I'm just trying to figure out how I would go about trying (unsuccessfully, I'm sure) to control the outcome, and every scenario I can think of requires precise, repeatable controllability AND visual feedback of the wheel status at some point in the process.



Like I said, to try and keep some form of control all I did was try and keep the ball/wheel speed consistent. Everything else was done the way I woudl do it in a normal game. So while I may have been taking visual clues this was being done subconsciously, if at all.
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Wizard
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Wizard
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April 1st, 2010 at 10:13:11 AM permalink
Bravo! That was an outstanding experiment. Can you tell me the average number of times the ball circles the wheel before hitting the frets? Do you factor in the speed of the wheel when choosing when and how fast to release the ball, or do you try to keep the wheel and ball speed as consistent as possible every spin? Given your impressive results, why do you think we don't hear about player/dealer collusion in roulette more often? I've heard the theory that a player can gain an advantage even without collusion by looking for a bored dealer who spins with the same speed every time. Any thoughts?
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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April 1st, 2010 at 10:26:15 AM permalink
Are you saying you did this while you were assigned to a roulette table, but when you simply happened to have no gamblers sitting there?

So, to the casual observer, you were simply spinning the ball as a distraction, while you had nothing else to do?

Wow. Hard to believe the management allowed you to do this. Then again, they probably weren't expecting the kinds of results you saw.



Quote: PapaChubby

If you weren't necessarily looking at the wheel during the spin, what on Earth were you doing to control the outcome?

Actually, I think I can tell you, even if Croupier doesn't realize what he did.

After years as a Routette croupier, you develop a certain consistancy. You push the wheel with a relativly consistant speed. You release the ball with a relativly consistant speed. You can even get the duration between the push and the release to be relativly consistant.

In Croupier's case, where they change the direction of the wheel every time, it shouldn't be too hard to slow the wheel, then stop it in the same position, so that when you do shove the wheel then release the ball, the wheel orientation, wheel speed, and ball speed are almost always the same, every time the ball is released.

That being the case, it's not hard to see how, given a target of half the wheel, he's hitting the target well more than half the time.

I'd even go so far as to say that if he were to develop the skill to the point where you did all those thing EXACTLY the same way every time, he'd be hitting the same number every time. Of course, getting that degree of precision is unlikely, but it's still interesting.




The next step would be very hard to get away with: Recording every outcome.

To really exploit this, you're going to have to be sure that the number in the middle of your target is the one that you hit most often. If it's not, then you'd have to adjust the position on the wheel where your finger is when you give it the push. Or adjust your target zone.

Hmmm... Now that I think about that part, maybe the "0" at the center of your target became your favorite number because you've subconciously realized that you're hitting more often than other numbers. Maybe you've been controlling the spin in this manner all along without realizing it.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
Croupier
Croupier
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April 1st, 2010 at 11:49:11 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Bravo! That was an outstanding experiment. Can you tell me the average number of times the ball circles the wheel before hitting the frets? Do you factor in the speed of the wheel when choosing when and how fast to release the ball, or do you try to keep the wheel and ball speed as consistent as possible every spin? Given your impressive results, why do you think we don't hear about player/dealer collusion in roulette more often? I've heard the theory that a player can gain an advantage even without collusion by looking for a bored dealer who spins with the same speed every time. Any thoughts?



The ball generally circles the wheel between 8 and 10 times. I just tried to keep the wheel and ball consistent. I did try when landing in the opposite section spinning the wheel and ball at different speeds to get back into my target section.

I think you dont hear about player/dealer collusion as most dealers that take the time and effort to figure out they could do this would be smart enough to realise they would get caught eventually, and its really not worth losing your job or getting prosecuted over.

I would definately believe the theory about bored dealers spinning the same, and that is speaking from experience. I would also reccomend dealers who look harried, rushed or uncomfortable. For newbies, or people out of their depth, varying the spin is usually the last thing on their mind.
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Croupier
Croupier
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April 1st, 2010 at 11:56:57 AM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

Are you saying you did this while you were assigned to a roulette table, but when you simply happened to have no gamblers sitting there?

So, to the casual observer, you were simply spinning the ball as a distraction, while you had nothing else to do?

Wow. Hard to believe the management allowed you to do this. Then again, they probably weren't expecting the kinds of results you saw.



Management tell us to spin the ball while at an empty table. It helps encourage people over if their numbers are hitting.



Quote:

Actually, I think I can tell you, even if Croupier doesn't realize what he did.

After years as a Routette croupier, you develop a certain consistancy. You push the wheel with a relativly consistant speed. You release the ball with a relativly consistant speed. You can even get the duration between the push and the release to be relativly consistant.

In Croupier's case, where they change the direction of the wheel every time, it shouldn't be too hard to slow the wheel, then stop it in the same position, so that when you do shove the wheel then release the ball, the wheel orientation, wheel speed, and ball speed are almost always the same, every time the ball is released.

That being the case, it's not hard to see how, given a target of half the wheel, he's hitting the target well more than half the time.



That sounds plausible. Ill run with that.

Quote:

I'd even go so far as to say that if he were to develop the skill to the point where you did all those thing EXACTLY the same way every time, he'd be hitting the same number every time. Of course, getting that degree of precision is unlikely, but it's still interesting.



I agree, but I would say it definately warrants possible further investigation.

Quote:


The next step would be very hard to get away with: Recording every outcome.

To really exploit this, you're going to have to be sure that the number in the middle of your target is the one that you hit most often. If it's not, then you'd have to adjust the position on the wheel where your finger is when you give it the push. Or adjust your target zone.

Hmmm... Now that I think about that part, maybe the "0" at the center of your target became your favorite number because you've subconciously realized that you're hitting more often than other numbers. Maybe you've been controlling the spin in this manner all along without realizing it.



Well, 0 section is my favourite because it contains the numbers 3 and 12 for my birthday, and 15 and 4 for my wifes birthday. Its also the biggest section on the wheel. But you may be right.
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cclub79
cclub79
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April 1st, 2010 at 1:22:40 PM permalink
Quote: Croupier

Management tell us to spin the ball while at an empty table. It helps encourage people over if their numbers are hitting.





That sounds plausible. Ill run with that.



I agree, but I would say it definately warrants possible further investigation.



Well, 0 section is my favourite because it contains the numbers 3 and 12 for my birthday, and 15 and 4 for my wifes birthday. Its also the biggest section on the wheel. But you may be right.



Just to be clear, this isn't a April Fool's Day joke from across the pond, is it?
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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April 1st, 2010 at 1:43:41 PM permalink
Quote: cclub79

Just to be clear, this isn't a April Fool's Day joke from across the pond, is it?

Crap.

Although that first post was at 4:09pm Vegas time, that's 12:09 in England - where Croupier is from!



Man, if this is an April Fool's joke, ya got us good!

But we (or at least *I*) got sucked in because I saw it before midnight last night!
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁

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