ruascott
ruascott
Joined: Mar 30, 2010
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March 30th, 2010 at 9:19:58 PM permalink
Hey all,

I was considering a "strategy" that is the Doey/Don't on the come out, and then max odds on either the Pass OR Don't Pass....since its fair odds I don't think it would really matter which was chosen.

I guess what I can't get my head around is what the HA is here, since the doey/don't would cancel each other out, and all thats left is the odds bet. The HA has to come from the push on the 12 on the come out, correct? If so, what is the amount of the HA of this push on the 12?
boymimbo
boymimbo
Joined: Nov 12, 2009
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March 30th, 2010 at 9:38:38 PM permalink
The HA is .5/36 = 1/72 = 1.389%. "Magically" this is 1/2 way between the odds of pass of 1.41% and don't pass at 1.364%. Amazing how math works!

That is, for a $5 doey don't (5 on the pass, 5 on the don't pass), you would expect to lose $5 on every 36th come out roll. Since the total bet is $10, the HA is 1/72.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
jeremykay
jeremykay
Joined: Feb 5, 2010
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March 31st, 2010 at 2:30:25 AM permalink
You are essentially doubling the house advantage because you will be betting twice as much. Since the big action is on the odds bet, what are you really gaining by hedging your bet?
ruascott
ruascott
Joined: Mar 30, 2010
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March 31st, 2010 at 6:46:29 AM permalink
By utilizing the doey/don't i've in essence eliminated the PL/DP bet (other than the 12 push on DP which would be the only house edge in the game). I don't understand why you are saying I'm doubling the HA.

Well, I guess my thought was that I would reduce variability by only betting the odds on the higher percentage wins...i.e. taking PL odds on 6/8, while taking DP odds on 4,5,9,10. I understand this doesn't reducue HA.

I know there is no strategy or 'system' to reduce HA, other than PL/DP w/FO. But playing this every roll you can see some wild variance, I would think (particularly on anything greater than 5x.)
boymimbo
boymimbo
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March 31st, 2010 at 8:12:45 AM permalink
I don't see any issues with the scheme above. Essentially you get paid true odds (whether pass or don't pass) with the expected value of -$.13889 per come out roll. Compare this to a come out roll on pass or don't pass, $5 where the expected value is only -$.0707 (-.0682) per come out roll. Playing the doey-don't indeed doubles your expected loss. It's like playing a $10 pass line or don't pass line with $5 on each. The disadvantage is that you can't press your odds.

Admittedly, the Doey-Don't does give you the choice to put odds up and down at your leisure and it allows you to take off your don't pass entirely if you have a "good" feeling.

But let's take a look at the system more in detail. Say the point is 6 and 8 and you take max odds on the point. You are betting $25 to win $30. The EV of this whole scheme when the point is 6/8 is -.1389 (due to the 12).
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
ruascott
ruascott
Joined: Mar 30, 2010
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March 31st, 2010 at 9:19:27 AM permalink
Quote: boymimbo

I don't see any issues with the scheme above. Essentially you get paid true odds (whether pass or don't pass) with the expected value of -$.13889 per come out roll. Compare this to a come out roll on pass or don't pass, $5 where the expected value is only -$.0707 (-.0682) per come out roll. Playing the doey-don't indeed doubles your expected loss. It's like playing a $10 pass line or don't pass line with $5 on each. The disadvantage is that you can't press your odds.

Admittedly, the Doey-Don't does give you the choice to put odds up and down at your leisure and it allows you to take off your don't pass entirely if you have a "good" feeling.

But let's take a look at the system more in detail. Say the point is 6 and 8 and you take max odds on the point. You are betting $25 to win $30. The EV of this whole scheme when the point is 6/8 is -.1389 (due to the 12).



Yes, I agree totally with what you are saying. It does indeed double my expected loss on the come out. My question, then I guess, is how much would this strategy reduce variability? In the LOOOONG run, I do understand the statistics and every gambler should play that which most reduces their expected loss. But is it ingnorant to be willing to trade an higher expected loss for lower variability. In addition, couldn't you say that such a system would give you a greater chance of having a winning session, but when you have a loosing session you lose more?

At some point, we have to balance what is practical considering we have a limited bankroll, vs what is ideal (PL w/full odds on every come out).

Maybe I should just stick to 6/8 place betting......

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