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Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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April 1st, 2011 at 4:12:03 PM permalink
I see that at Pinnacle the lines on VCU to win the championship are:

Yes +604
No -750

Let's figure out how much you would have to bet against VCU winning to lock in an equal win either way, and what that win would be. Let x bet the bet.

Win outcome = 50,000 - x<br>
Lose outcome = x*(100/750) = (2/15)x

Set these equal to each other

50000-x = (2/15)x
50000 = (17/15)x
x = 50000×(15/17)
x = $44,117.65

Let see if that is right...

If VCU wins the outcome is $50,000 minus from the Hilton minus $44,117.65 to Pinnacle = $5,882.35
If VCU doesn't win you don't get anything from the Hilton, but the Pinnacle bet will pay $44,117.65 × (100/750) = $5,882.35.

However, the bet against VCU I doubt pays fair odds. If the owner was extremely risk averse, and was eager to sell the ticket, then I think about $6,000 would be a fair. However, I would base the probability of VCU winning on the +604 line that they will win, implying a 100/704 = 14.2% chance. That would make the value of the ticket about $7,100.

This all ignores the tax implications.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
ItsCalledSoccer
ItsCalledSoccer
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April 1st, 2011 at 4:25:20 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

As tempting as it sounds, having your signature line tout my superiority for 96 years is not that appealing, (especially when you just quit the board a few weeks ago.) Also, avargov's pennance still cracks me up.

How about this, I will put up my one week with the "scarlet signature of shame" against your promise to do your best to befriend MKL if he ever returns?



Quote: JL2

Looks like an interesting proposition. Mr. mkl will return because that is what it appears he does, and someone like that who seems to have only this forum as a source of entertainment will humble himself to the bowels of humanity in 2 week's time. He has no ability at all to absorb hurt and take the high road, and his propensity to go postal is only surpassed by his inability to voluntarily follow through on what he says, no matter how embarrassing or degrading. It is because of this trait that I believe he keeps coming back for more and more punishment. He likes it!



Wow, step away from the boards for a while to earn a living and you hear about it! :)

There's little doubt mkl will return, that's kind of his thing. What makes this prop bet unattractive is the ambiguity as to what "do your best to befriend mkl" means. What I think it means could be far different than what Ayecarumba thinks, and that can't be good when it comes to paying off a bet.

But trying doesn't really work, though, does it? MKL is who he is, but so is everyone else ... yet MKL has no friends, and everyone else does. I don't think effort is the problem when it comes to MKL.

Also, it's not a very fun penalty, is it?

I'm not against taking the bet, but it would help if you, Ayecarumba, tried to define what you mean, and tried to make it more fun.
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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April 1st, 2011 at 6:22:09 PM permalink
Quote: ItsCalledSoccer

Wow, step away from the boards for a while to earn a living and you hear about it! :)

There's little doubt mkl will return, that's kind of his thing. What makes this prop bet unattractive is the ambiguity as to what "do your best to befriend mkl" means. What I think it means could be far different than what Ayecarumba thinks, and that can't be good when it comes to paying off a bet.

But trying doesn't really work, though, does it? MKL is who he is, but so is everyone else ... yet MKL has no friends, and everyone else does. I don't think effort is the problem when it comes to MKL.

Also, it's not a very fun penalty, is it?

I'm not against taking the bet, but it would help if you, Ayecarumba, tried to define what you mean, and tried to make it more fun.



I trust that you are honorable, and will leave it up to you to define what "doing your best" means in the spirit of the wager. If you are looking for an example, I would be satisfied if you could develop your relationship to the point that if you offered to buy MKL a beer at the Triple 7, he would be happy to accept.

As for the "fun", it wouldn't be a penalty if it was easy. Besides, this is VCU we're talking about, I should be lobbying to get the toilet paper dropped... hehe
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
ItsCalledSoccer
ItsCalledSoccer
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April 1st, 2011 at 7:01:08 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

I trust that you are honorable, and will leave it up to you to define what "doing your best" means in the spirit of the wager. If you are looking for an example, I would be satisfied if you could develop your relationship to the point that if you offered to buy MKL a beer at the Triple 7, he would be happy to accept.

As for the "fun", it wouldn't be a penalty if it was easy. Besides, this is VCU we're talking about, I should be lobbying to get the toilet paper dropped... hehe



Thanks for the kind words. The particular example you give, while helpful, is impossible ... not that it can't happen, but that I would have so much control as to make it happen. MKL is a grown man, and I can't force him to do anything. If I "do my best in the spirit of the wager," and yet he refuses to hoist an ale, does that mean you feel the bet would be unsatisfied? That I didn't truly do my best?

I'm not trying to over-engineer the bet to avoid it. But I can't possibly satisfy something that's completely out of my control. And, I don't think it's a stretch to foresee MKL purposely putting me through the ringer in the name of trying to satisfy the lost bet. Cynicism is definitely among his personality traits.

Oh well. We gave it a good try. If we can't come to terms, maybe at least we can have bragging rights.
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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April 1st, 2011 at 8:11:18 PM permalink
Quote: ItsCalledSoccer

Thanks for the kind words. The particular example you give, while helpful, is impossible ... not that it can't happen, but that I would have so much control as to make it happen. MKL is a grown man, and I can't force him to do anything. If I "do my best in the spirit of the wager," and yet he refuses to hoist an ale, does that mean you feel the bet would be unsatisfied? That I didn't truly do my best?

I'm not trying to over-engineer the bet to avoid it. But I can't possibly satisfy something that's completely out of my control. And, I don't think it's a stretch to foresee MKL purposely putting me through the ringer in the name of trying to satisfy the lost bet. Cynicism is definitely among his personality traits.

Oh well. We gave it a good try. If we can't come to terms, maybe at least we can have bragging rights.



I respect your concerns ICS and FWIW, reluctance on MKL's part to help you satisfy the terms would certainly not reflect poorly on you. (If it happened... I sincerely believe that he would respond positively to a sincere effort to reach out, and would not put anyone through the wringer). Perhaps it can be still be a mental exercise on our parts.

I've got some left over "honor" credits from the Blackjack promotion shutdown wager some time back. I'll put up one of those to your 5,000 if you like.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
avargov
avargov
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April 1st, 2011 at 8:19:17 PM permalink
Whatever you do man...NEVER get into ICS's back pocket. You will be doomed to a life of shame and ridicule!

That being said...I think I would take the field against VCU as well.
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
ItsCalledSoccer
ItsCalledSoccer
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April 1st, 2011 at 8:43:53 PM permalink
Quote: avargov

Whatever you do man...NEVER get into ICS's back pocket. You will be doomed to a life of shame and ridicule!

That being said...I think I would take the field against VCU as well.



Dude! Your debt was paid in full last December! You're free to change your sig whenever you want!

But yeah ... never get in my back pocket. You don't want Hannibal Lecter ItsCalledSoccer running around in your head.

ItsCalledSoccer
ItsCalledSoccer
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April 1st, 2011 at 8:45:03 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

I respect your concerns ICS and FWIW, reluctance on MKL's part to help you satisfy the terms would certainly not reflect poorly on you. (If it happened... I sincerely believe that he would respond positively to a sincere effort to reach out, and would not put anyone through the wringer). Perhaps it can be still be a mental exercise on our parts.

I've got some left over "honor" credits from the Blackjack promotion shutdown wager some time back. I'll put up one of those to your 5,000 if you like.



Cool. I'm afraid I don't know what "honor" credits are. Tell me what they are and I'll decide. It sounds like a fair bet, though ...
avargov
avargov
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April 1st, 2011 at 10:07:12 PM permalink
ICS, I am just prepaying now for some bet we will make next season that I will lose. And like I have said before, I really don't have anything more clever to say at the moment!
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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April 2nd, 2011 at 12:11:16 AM permalink
Quote: ItsCalledSoccer

Cool. I'm afraid I don't know what "honor" credits are. Tell me what they are and I'll decide. It sounds like a fair bet, though ...

Think of it as virtual Monopoly money. It's a convenient way to keep track of wagers where nothing but bragging rights are on the line.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci

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