WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
Joined: May 20, 2011
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January 29th, 2017 at 6:08:19 PM permalink
Yep, the total is a very good line. I have 58 on my pool. Im going over. Both teams will score often... I just hope NE Defense can hold Atlanta just enough to secure the win.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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January 30th, 2017 at 10:54:00 AM permalink
Since this is a "Brave New World" in NFL scoring, I don't think a total of 58 - 60 is so unreasonable. There seems to be a lot of hand wringing going on, over the "historic" nature of the total, but isn't a big component of setting the lines picking numbers that attract balanced action, not necessarily to bullseye the actual winner and score?

In the past, the Under was a slightly better than 50% pick, but these playoffs have been a scorefest. Both teams can, and will put up points through the air on each other, as each defense has to respect their opponent's ground game. Barring key injuries, I don't expect the trend to stop, and am expecting a high total.
America is all about speed. Hot, nasty, bad-ass speed. - Eleanor Roosevelt, 1936
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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January 30th, 2017 at 12:47:25 PM permalink
Face has been awfully quiet on the topic of Tom Brady playing in the Super Bowl. Maybe, in the face of Mr. Brady's strong... dare I say, "MVP caliber", performance this season, he's moved to "neutral"? Can "fan" be far behind?



(stops poking bear..)
America is all about speed. Hot, nasty, bad-ass speed. - Eleanor Roosevelt, 1936
Wizard
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Wizard
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January 30th, 2017 at 6:25:22 PM permalink
I just got Patriots money line at -141 at Cantor.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
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January 31st, 2017 at 2:26:38 PM permalink
Im confident that the Pats will put up at least 30 on Falcons Defense. The question is regarding the Pats Defense... how good are they really? Will Atlanta score on them like they did everyone else. Im leaning towards yes, Atlanta will score also. High scoring game goes over.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
Wizard
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Wizard
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January 31st, 2017 at 4:22:26 PM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

High scoring game goes over.



I hope you're wrong. Just bet $100 with BBB on under 58.5.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
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January 31st, 2017 at 5:01:36 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I hope you're wrong. Just bet $100 with BBB on under 58.5.



Ive been going back and forth every other day on the total and side... Im set on the Patriots winning as I think Belichick will figure out how to stop Matty Ice just enough with 2 weeks prep. Plus the experience of the Pats and the fact that they can put up points against a soft Falcons Defense. As far as the total goes, Ive been wrong the past two weeks thinking that games cant all keep going over.. so Im not fighting it anymore.... plus Im pretty sure everyone in my pool with be taking the fav/over, so I am protecting against their bet.. if they win , I win.. If they lose, I still win since Im ahead currently. If they go Falcons and and Falcons win, then oh well... game well played.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
TomG
TomG
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January 31st, 2017 at 5:16:02 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I just got Patriots money line at -141 at Cantor.



There's been some Falcons +3 -105. One (or both) must be +EV. I'm on Atlanta only because I haven't been anywhere that had better than -150 yet.
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
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January 31st, 2017 at 5:37:36 PM permalink
Which way to you guys think the line will move throughout the week? Does the action look like pats may go to 3.5 or 2.5 or stay the same? Same with total.. think we will see 59 or back to 58 ?
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
Mission146
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Mission146
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January 31st, 2017 at 7:53:41 PM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

Which way to you guys think the line will move throughout the week? Does the action look like pats may go to 3.5 or 2.5 or stay the same? Same with total.. think we will see 59 or back to 58 ?



Hard to say, Treasure Island seems to be giving Odds at NE -3.5, but currently at +110, that's down from the high point of +120. Treasure Island also seems to have the total at 59.5 -110, either side.

In the meantime, P!nn@c!e has NE -3 @ +104 for anyone who can access that. That's a phenomenal bet, if you can. It was as high as +109. Sportsbook.ag seems to currently be offering ATL +3 at Even Money, so if you can access both of those sites, there's a little arbitrage and pull for NE. TopBet.com also appears to have ATL +3 at Even Money.

This post should not be construed as an endorsement of those sports betting sites which I have never bet at and know little to nothing about.

Either way, I don't think the line is going to come down from 59, but I don't expect it to go any higher. It's floated, briefly, to 59.5 at some places and 58.5 at others, but at most or all of the major Nevada books, it's clung pretty tenaciously to 59. I also don't see the line moving off of three in the Nevada books, but could be wrong. I just think it would have done it by now.
Vultures can't be choosers.

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