JoelDeze
JoelDeze
Joined: Apr 20, 2016
  • Threads: 49
  • Posts: 467
September 8th, 2016 at 7:24:49 AM permalink
Quote: SM777

Well aware. I was excited about hitting my third fade in a row, and got ahead of myself.

But what exactly does that have to do with anything?



I can answer that.

1) It's Week One. A lot of crazy things happen on week one. This was the first year where there were multiple premier match-ups on opening week. I enjoyed a lot of the games, and thought the Notre Dame vs. Texas game was the best one out of all opening week games.

2) If you read back in my "un-edited" post on FSU, I explained clearly that they are going to the playoffs and predicted them to win by 11 points. Well, they won by 11 points. That's why I said they would easily cover.

FSUs coaching staff do a few things well. First, they are great at planning and reacting at halftime. They are an incredible second half team. Second, they built the second half game plan to match up to their young QB's strengths. They started calling plays that they knew he would make. It made things much easier on him in that game. They won because they are the better team.

And, finally, this is an 11 on 11 game and if you have more talented players, coaches will tell you time and again they try to break down the 11 on 11 game to 1 v 1 match-ups, and have an advantage. If you can do that, you will win a majority of your games. FSU was and still is the far superior team.

I did not make a good call on the Clemson game. It was a bad forecast and even I have to admit it when I get something wrong. But, with that aside, how many coaches are going to "NOT" kick a FG when up by 6 points and 40 seconds are remaining on the clock to ice the game? Not many. Dabo decided not to kick the FG (which would have covered the spread) and Auburn marched down and almost won the game at the last second. If Auburn had won that game, everyone would have questioned why he didn't kick the FG. But, of course, you won't mention that particular fact. The forecast was bad but the outcome was still the same. I would wager on that game every single time and the same way.
Its a dog eat dog world out there and Im wearing milkbone underwear . Norm Peterson
JoelDeze
JoelDeze
Joined: Apr 20, 2016
  • Threads: 49
  • Posts: 467
September 8th, 2016 at 8:12:06 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf



Free for now and then do as you wish. WHAT A DEAL!!
Imagine if you just happen to have a winning season during the free trial period. Now that you got them hooked, they think they have value and are willing to pay next time. Where have I seen this tactic before? Do you refund everyone if you have a losing season next year? You should refund a percentage of anyone's losses each year.



First of all, my site was never built or touted as a picks site. I pride myself on building solid tools and utilities and handling big data so that it's easy for people to "research and identify" match-ups that have a high probability of winning. All of the services are research oriented.

The picks section (the smallest section on my site) just takes the highest rated system picks that fall in an x-y ML range criteria and spits out the probable winner. I have to ultimately decide whether or not that team covers the ATS. On a SU format, the winning probability is going to be very high. But, not many people are going to wager a lot of money on low value returns. If you are patient, sure you can build up a 16-19% ROI using a SU format with the ML on my site. Myself, I prefer 42%+ ROI through using all of the research tools I've built.

I don't have any control over whether someone decides to stay a subscriber or not. That decision is up to the person using the tools. The money isn't all that important to me on a subscription based service. It pays the costs of the infrastructure servers, maintenance etc. I find more value in the feedback that I receive from people using the tools. If they have a very solid idea for improving the way something works on my site, I usually implement it in the offseason. I had one guy that liked my Ratings Search tool (which combined historical data) but he wanted to see the ROI on the searches. So, I built it into the tool and now it's very easy to filter any qualifier and see what the ROI return was for that search. Now anyone, including myself, can create an advanced filter search algorithm to build say a 50% ROI or above and use that filter for all games during the season. Basically, it breaks down a 50 game per week format into 3-5 games that have a high ROI and probability. It makes it a lot easier to research 3-5 games than to have to research 50 games. Good idea. Implemented.

I've thought about going to a free format (donation only) service on the site. It would be implementing an honor system of sorts. I'm not sure how that would work out but I'm looking into it. I also do not show advertisements on the site. I hate advertisements but maybe I could incorporate that type of format as well. I just like keeping things clean and easy to use.
Its a dog eat dog world out there and Im wearing milkbone underwear . Norm Peterson
JoelDeze
JoelDeze
Joined: Apr 20, 2016
  • Threads: 49
  • Posts: 467
September 10th, 2016 at 11:51:41 PM permalink
Horrible week. Lost all 4 picks, including the double on Midd Tenn. I managed to pick up two overs but that didn't help much.

-6.22 units for the season so far (last two weeks)

Not a good start. I'll be holding off on wagers for the next two weeks and will pick up things again in week 5 when the data is a bit stronger. There's quite a bit of fall off from last season.

I will not be responding to replies on this thread since I'm pretty certain most of them will be negative.
Its a dog eat dog world out there and Im wearing milkbone underwear . Norm Peterson
SM777
SM777
Joined: Apr 8, 2016
  • Threads: 6
  • Posts: 762
September 10th, 2016 at 11:58:58 PM permalink
Quote: JoelDeze

Horrible week. Lost all 4 picks, including the double on Midd Tenn. I managed to pick up two overs but that didn't help much.

-6.22 units for the season so far (last two weeks)

Not a good start. I'll be holding off on wagers for the next two weeks and will pick up things again in week 5 when the data is a bit stronger. There's quite a bit of fall off from last season.

I will not be responding to replies on this thread since I'm pretty certain most of them will be negative.



Thanks for the fades!

2-1 week 1
4-0 week 2

Keep 'em coming!
NokTang
NokTang
Joined: Aug 15, 2011
  • Threads: 56
  • Posts: 1314
September 11th, 2016 at 12:48:59 AM permalink
Quote: SM777

Thanks for the fades!

2-1 week 1
4-0 week 2

Keep 'em coming!



He already took his lumps like a man. Admitted defeat. No need in piling on. He lost, he doesn't know what's going to happen in the future, his statistics mean nothing, defeat. Lost/no sales. Over and done with. At least he tried! and it was funny to some of us, just not him.
GWAE
GWAE
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
  • Threads: 93
  • Posts: 9854
September 11th, 2016 at 6:57:22 AM permalink
Quote: NokTang

He already took his lumps like a man. Admitted defeat. No need in piling on. He lost, he doesn't know what's going to happen in the future, his statistics mean nothing, defeat. Lost/no sales. Over and done with. At least he tried! and it was funny to some of us, just not him.



Lots of reasons to pile on. He take his lumps but he has been proclaiming how great his picks are and we definitely know if he was 5-1 we would be hearing about it to no end.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
  • Threads: 122
  • Posts: 12724
September 11th, 2016 at 7:07:00 AM permalink
Limited Sample Size no matter how you cut it.
Vultures can't be choosers.
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
  • Threads: 71
  • Posts: 6133
September 11th, 2016 at 7:30:33 AM permalink
Rough week for Joel. Not only did he go 0-4 he also lost 9 units. Joel said he bets between$10k and $15k at -9 units that means he lost between $90,000 and $135,000 dollars this week on the games he posted.
Living longer does not always infer +EV
SM777
SM777
Joined: Apr 8, 2016
  • Threads: 6
  • Posts: 762
September 11th, 2016 at 7:59:08 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

Lots of reasons to pile on. He take his lumps but he has been proclaiming how great his picks are and we definitely know if he was 5-1 we would be hearing about it to no end.



Couldn't have said it better myself.
NokTang
NokTang
Joined: Aug 15, 2011
  • Threads: 56
  • Posts: 1314
September 11th, 2016 at 4:10:03 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Rough week for Joel. Not only did he go 0-4 he also lost 9 units. Joel said he bets between$10k and $15k at -9 units that means he lost between $90,000 and $135,000 dollars this week on the games he posted.



I don't think that claim was per unit/game. Total.

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