RS
RS
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February 2nd, 2015 at 1:46:11 PM permalink
I'd rather have 3 tries at a touchdown than 2 tries.

I say somewhere between "correct play" and "not as bad as everyone makes it to be".
BoulderDamIt
BoulderDamIt
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February 2nd, 2015 at 2:27:30 PM permalink
Carroll made horrible decisions throughout the whole game. Some of the decisions are downright head scratching.
He has a known history of throwing during plays that do not warrant it.

His decision to go for the touchdown instead of the field goal before the first half ended is a perfect example. Just because it paid off doesn't mean it was the correct play. Horrible coaching during this game. Some outstanding players though.
steeldco
steeldco
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February 2nd, 2015 at 2:41:19 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

I don't blame Pete Carrol for calling the play. It was an excellent defensive play that did them in.



I don't blame Carrol either. However, it wasn't the defense. It was an absolutely poor decision by Russell Wilson to throw that ball. He pissed on himself.
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Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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February 2nd, 2015 at 2:49:05 PM permalink
Quote: steeldco

I don't blame Carrol either. However, it wasn't the defense. It was an absolutely poor decision by Russell Wilson to throw that ball. He pissed on himself.

I disagree. It's a timing pick-play that was working until the Pat's Butler jumped the route. The receiver was clear, but got bumped off. It all happens in a split second. 66 times that play works. Unfortunately, this was attempt number 67.

If you have ever played football in the street, this play was known as "three steps and turn around". Tough to defend, because it happens quickly, and if you try to jump it, you risk getting burned on the pump fake. Butler gambled and it worked out well for him.
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Zcore13
Zcore13
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February 2nd, 2015 at 3:06:04 PM permalink
For those that are saying Pete Carroll called the play, I don't believe that is correct. He's taking the heat for it and saying it's on him, but I don't think that's 100% correct. He definitely heard what the play was going to be and could have over-ridden it, but the Offensive Coordinator Darrell Bevel (who I went to grade school with) calls the plays. Pete Carroll is most likely protecting him and in the end the buck stops with Pete Carroll, but I'd say it's a 90% chance the play was called by the O.C. and yes it was a bad call.

Lynch had over 100 yards and was averaging over 4 yards per carry for the game. He had just carried on 1st and goal from the 5 yard line to the 1 yard line. 4 yards right up the middle. If they failed to push it in they had a timeout to stop the clock and then again decide what to do.

The call was bad. Should have run it. Lynch had 24 rushes and none of them were less than a yard.
The pass was bad. Wilson did not put it where only the receiver could catch it.
The route by the receiver was bad. Very weak in the catch attempt. The Super Bowl is on the line. Top receivers run that route much stronger. If you watch the replay, he kind of tippy toes past the pick and never runs hard. If you don't catch it, it shouldn't be caught by anyone.

But with all that said, Seattle shouldn't have even been there. They pulled off a 1 in 100 games comeback against the Packers. One play doesn't decide a game. It was a great game. Congrats to the Patriots.

ZCore13
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Mission146
Mission146
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February 2nd, 2015 at 3:28:58 PM permalink
Quote: BoulderDamIt



His decision to go for the touchdown instead of the field goal before the first half ended is a perfect example. Just because it paid off doesn't mean it was the correct play. Horrible coaching during this game. Some outstanding players though.



I thought it was a fair play regardless of the result. I think Wilson has the wherewithal to at least throw it away if he can't find anyone and was well-aware of the clock situation. As long as he doesn't throw into double coverage, or anything, I see nothing wrong with that call. If the Patriots were getting the ball first in the second half I might agree, but with SEA getting it back, the potential TD puts them in position to take control of the game...which they did, briefly.
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Wanderer
Wanderer
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February 2nd, 2015 at 4:00:13 PM permalink
IIRC, the situation was...

1. 2nd / G from the 1 YL.
2. About 30 seconds remaining.
3. Seahawks had at least one TO remaining.
4. Lynch (a well-known power back) had just gained four yards on the previous play.

If it were me, I would run Lynch again and call time out if he didn't score. If he doesn't score, that gives you at least 20 seconds left and 3rd down. Throw it on that down and if you don't complete it the clock stops. And then it's 4th down and it's all the same to run or pass because the clock is irrelevant at that point.

I just can't see throwing it on that second down play. And if I were gonna throw it, it would be a bootleg pass against a desperate defensive front that cannot give up a single yard in the running game and had trouble tackling Wilson in space all night. Wilson might have booted out and walked in. No way would I line up in the shotgun and try to throw a tight, inside breaking route. I would have run a QB sneak before I did that.
Mosca
Mosca
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February 2nd, 2015 at 4:06:02 PM permalink
I would run Lynch, then call time out. Then the next play would be the read option with Wilson going wide, pass or run, so that he could get out of bounds if he had to, or throw it away outside the tackle box if no one is open. Assuming neither of those plays work, then you are left with one play for all the money, and it could be anything.

But geez, if you're going to throw on second down make it a back shoulder fade in the corner; either your guy gets it or it falls to the ground.
NO KILL I
kewlj
kewlj
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February 2nd, 2015 at 4:26:15 PM permalink
Quote: Mosca

I would run Lynch, then call time out. Then the next play would be the read option with Wilson going wide, pass or run, so that he could get out of bounds if he had to, or throw it away outside the tackle box if no one is open. Assuming neither of those plays work, then you are left with one play for all the money, and it could be anything.

But geez, if you're going to throw on second down make it a back shoulder fade in the corner; either your guy gets it or it falls to the ground.


This is exactly right in my opinion. With 20-some seconds and one time out you can run the ball twice, plus throw an incomplete pass. But if and when you throw a pass from the one yard line it has to be a fade to the corner, so it is either a TD or incomplete. You don't throw any kind of pass in the middle where you have 22 guys congested into a very small area like that. That is just too dangerous.

Personally I would have run again on second down (lynch had just picked up 4 and a half on first down), and if he didn't make it, used my timeout and then run either a fade to the corner or an option run where Russell throws it away if nothing is WIDE open. If that didn't work, you still have one final play and all options on the table.
reno
reno
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February 2nd, 2015 at 5:04:54 PM permalink
Brian Burke, founder of Advanced NFL Stats writes:

Quote:

Interceptions are extremely unlikely from the 1—Russell Wilson’s was the first of the year—so the risk seemed worth it. Between the matchups and the clock considerations, the decision to pass seems defensible, but the play call of a quick inside slant and Wilson’s decision to pull the trigger remain subject to criticism.

But an interception wasn’t the only added risk of a passing play. There was also the possibility of a sack and higher probabilities of a penalty or turnover. There are any number of possible combinations of outcomes to consider on Seattle’s three remaining downs—too many to directly evaluate. So I ran the situation through a game simulation. The simulator plays out the remainder of the game thousands of times from a chosen point—in this case from the second down on. I ran the simulation twice, once forcing the Seahawks to run on second down and once forcing them to pass. I anticipated that the results would support my logic (and Carroll’s explanation) that running would be a bad idea. It turns out I was wrong. The simulation—which is different than Win Probability—gave Seattle an 85 percent chance of winning by running and a 77 percent chance by passing.


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