week 12 NFL bets

1-NE,NYJ,DEN($5) parley
2-NE,NYJ,ARI($5) parley
3-NE,NYJ,Phili($10) parley
4-NE,NYJ($20) parley
5-NE,NYJ,Phili,Ari,Den($10) parley

Total invesment $50.
Looking for comment especially from LarryS.
thanks.

Off to work and be back in 5 hours.
Also, tonight NBA:Pho-1($50),Lak +3.5($100) both add Mia money line as as odds booster to pass 2-1

Quote: speedycrap

1-NE,NYJ,DEN($5) parley
2-NE,NYJ,ARI($5) parley
3-NE,NYJ,Phili($10) parley
4-NE,NYJ($20) parley
5-NE,NYJ,Phili,Ari,Den($10) parley

Total invesment $50.
Looking for comment especially from LarryS.
thanks.

How much on each win?

Quote: speedycrap

1-NE,NYJ,DEN($5) parley
2-NE,NYJ,ARI($5) parley
3-NE,NYJ,Phili($10) parley
4-NE,NYJ($20) parley
5-NE,NYJ,Phili,Ari,Den($10) parley

Total invesment $50.
Looking for comment especially from LarryS.
thanks.

I think NYJ getting +1 seems very good value. Less so on the NE +2.5. They are facing a surging Panthers team, who are grinding on the ground and in defence. I predict they get to Brady, and he'll be hurried all day.

I like Arizona this weekend, as they are playing well now, and should put enough up against Jacksonville. But agree with LarryS that KC+8 looks like the better side of the Denver game. Lets see what happens when Manning has to face a hard front line. 8 points is a lot to overcome, and the Chiefs are 9-0 and will want to keep that up against division rivals.

" But agree with LarryS that KC+8 looks like the better side of the Denver game."

I have faith that KC will somehow find a way to lose by more than 8. No special stats, just that they usually fold when pressure is applied.

Quote: Buzzard

" But agree with LarryS that KC+8 looks like the better side of the Denver game."

I have faith that KC will somehow find a way to lose by more than 8. No special stats, just that they usually fold when pressure is applied.

That was last years team. The 9-0 KC hasn't folded yet. They haven't played super hard teams either, mind you.

Hopefully I am wrong. But in past big games the last decade I thought they should move to the Philippines and change the name to the Manilla Folders.

I mean it has been a while since January 11 1970, has it not ?

Quote: thecesspit

I think NYJ getting +1 seems very good value. Less so on the NE +2.5. They are facing a surging Panthers team, who are grinding on the ground and in defence. I predict they get to Brady, and he'll be hurried all day.

I like Arizona this weekend, as they are playing well now, and should put enough up against Jacksonville. But agree with LarryS that KC+8 looks like the better side of the Denver game. Lets see what happens when Manning has to face a hard front line. 8 points is a lot to overcome, and the Chiefs are 9-0 and will want to keep that up against division rivals.

I agree with all of this, except I happen to like the Patriots pick.

I understand that the Panthers are surging, but they're going to need to do really well on the ground because that Pats defense isn't going to let Newton do anything in the air. That having been said, a Points Differential of +99 to +59 would favor the Panthers, which is 4.44 PPG's.

I like to look at quality of opponents each team has beaten, also. To a certain measure, you can't help who you play, but there is something to be said for a team that beats the better teams and that difference offsets the Points Differential, when applicable.

In the case of the Patriots v. Panthers, subtracting the losses to the Patriots, opponents the Patriots have beaten are running 25-32 for .439 for the season, while opponents that the Panthers have beaten are running 18-30 for .375. I prefer not to look at this measure until Week 12, but, close enough.

The other thing I like to look at is opponents that the team in question has lost to. If you look at the Panthers, the teams that have beaten them are a combined 15-12 (subtracting the wins against the Panthers out) for .555 while teams that have beaten the Patriots are 9-8 for .529, so there's no real difference there.

Okay, so the Panthers have got the positive Points Differential of +4.44 PPG's, but I'm taking away three points for the extra loss and I'm also taking away three points for the quality of opponents they have beaten. That brings the PPG's down to -1.56 PPG's.

The Panthers are at home, which gives them 2 PPG's against a, "Quality," team such as the Patriots, in my view, bringing this bad boy back up to Panthers -.5.

My final measure is common opponents in terms of Wins/Losses. In this case, the Panthers lost to the Bills, but the Patriots beat the Bills. That's only one game, which is why I prefer the metric for teams who at least share a Conference, if not a Division, but it's enough for me to swing this game back to being a true PK making New England +2.5 the way to go.

Quote: Buzzard

Hopefully I am wrong. But in past big games the last decade I thought they should move to the Philippines and change the name to the Manilla Folders.

I mean it has been a while since January 11 1970, has it not ?

I don't tend to care what a team did last year, not too much. I may look at the players from last year, and general attitudes, but the NFL is changable enough that KC's 1970 form is meaningless. You can also look at the coach and GMs year to year. They do have tendencies (I know, I watched the Lions crap-fest for 8 years under Millen), but I don't think this one is a write off.

And I'm sure you don't hope too much for those who are nearby in the predictions league who've taken KC+8 :D

Hey I might be taking KC and 8. Have not made choices yet. Still setting up the dartboard.

Quote: Buzzard

Hey I might be taking KC and 8. Have not made choices yet. Still setting up the dartboard.

LarryS swears by a bird and it's poop. :D

This is going to be a brutal game on the players. The injuries will determine the outcome.

Quote: Buzzard

I thought they should move to the Philippines and change the name to the Manilla Folders.

Is this some sort of joke about the loss of life and resulting homelessness in the Philippines? Obviously, the aid program will be never ending and the money stolen, but still, with the loss of life and fact the people have nothing(before and after the storm) it never ceases to amaze me how people can ridicule such a situation and human tragedy. They are stuck there. Unlike us, most of us anyhow, they can't just catch a flight out of town and avoid such storms. Think New Orleans if you must during Katrina. People kept asking "why didn't they leave?" as were warned etc. and the reason is they don't have any money or means to leave. Same same times a dozen in the Philippines.

No, a Manila Folder is a cardboard cover on a report : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manila_folder

Folding is also a term for collapsing under pressure, like when a team collapses in the last quarter of a football match. It's a pub from WoV's resident Dangerfield.

Quote: thecesspit

No, a Manila Folder is a cardboard cover on a report : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manila_folder

Folding is also a term for collapsing under pressure, like when a team collapses in the last quarter of a football match. It's a pub from WoV's resident Dangerfield.

Ah okay, No big deal. I of course know now why the Philippines was mentioned but will leave my post up. A cardboard cover would be nice to have in some parts of the Philippines. But we digress into a world most on here have no clue about. I'd like to see some of them in a triple canape jungle in Laos talking about dice control to the hundreds of animal eyes on them hoping they die.

Hry, for several years I supported a girl in the Philippines thru a charity.

I meant no disrespect.

1 New England Patriots @ Carolina Panthers – Match Spread New England Patriots @ 1.91 (+2.5) – C $10.00 –
2< Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos – Match Spread Denver Broncos @ 1.91 (-8.0) –
3< Arizona Cardinals @ Jacksonville Jaguars – Match Spread Arizona Cardinals @ 1.91 (-8.5) –
4< Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles – Match Spread Philadelphia Eagles @ 1.91 (-4.5) –
5< New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills – Match Spread New York Jets @ 1.87 (+1.5) –
=======================================================================
1< New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills – Match Spread New York Jets @ 1.87 (+1.5) – C $20.00 –
2< New England Patriots @ Carolina Panthers – Match Spread New England Patriots @ 1.91 (+2.5) –
=============================================================================
1< New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills – Match Spread New York Jets @ 1.87 (+1.5) – C $10.00 –
2< New England Patriots @ Carolina Panthers – Match Spread New England Patriots @ 1.91 (+2.5) –
3< Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles – Match Spread Philadelphia Eagles @ 1.91 (-4.5)
============================================================================
1 Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos – Match Spread Denver Broncos @ 1.91 (-8.0) – C $5.00 –
2< New England Patriots @ Carolina Panthers – Match Spread New England Patriots @ 1.91 (+2.5) –
3< New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills – Match Spread New York Jets @ 1.87 (+1.5)
========================================================================
1 Arizona Cardinals @ Jacksonville Jaguars – Match Spread Arizona Cardinals @ 1.91 (-8.5) – C $5.00 –
2 New England Patriots @ Carolina Panthers – Match Spread New England Patriots @ 1.91 (+2.5) –
3< New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills – Match Spread New York Jets @ 1.87 (+1.5)
==============================================================================
1 New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills – Match Spread New York Jets @ 1.91 (-1.5) – C $25.00 –
2 Arizona Cardinals @ Jacksonville Jaguars – Match Spread Arizona Cardinals @ 1.91 (-8.5)
=============================================================================
1 Arizona Cardinals @ Jacksonville Jaguars – Match Spread Arizona Cardinals @ 1.91 (-8.5) – C $25.00
================
total for this Sunday is (for now) $100.
I won on Thursday, IND money line plus over winning $40.
NYJ drops from +1.5 to -1.5 in 1 day.

the thing about brady is that if you have a defense that can punch him in the mouth he doesnt perform well

a few years back,, baltimore beat him up and won the game in the first qtr, the giants in both superbowls turned a high octane offinse into very ordinary offense

If I look at the teams without the hype attached to brady and his past accomplishments....i see carolina as the better defense.

and the better defense at home....wins in my opinion.

I dont see alot of value in the point spread so I am staying away, but as a guess for a winner..its carolina for me.

Quote: NokTang

Ah okay, No big deal. I of course know now why the Philippines was mentioned but will leave my post up. A cardboard cover would be nice to have in some parts of the Philippines. But we digress into a world most on here have no clue about. I'd like to see some of them in a triple canape jungle in Laos talking about dice control to the hundreds of animal eyes on them hoping they die.

Good grief.

Quote: Buzzard

" But agree with LarryS that KC+8 looks like the better side of the Denver game."

I have faith that KC will somehow find a way to lose by more than 8. No special stats, just that they usually fold when pressure is applied.

Perhaps they should move the franchise to Kansas ? ? ?

Quote: Buzzard

Perhaps they should move the franchise to Kansas ? ? ?

Perhaps they should move the franchise to Kansas ? ? ? They are in Kansas NOW!!!!! I won $50 even money DEN-7.5

No, they are in Kansas City,Miissouri.

Kansas City, Kansas is home to one major professional sports team, Major League Soccer's Sporting Kansas City.

Quote: Buzzard

No, they are in Kansas City,Miissouri.

Kansas City, Kansas is home to one major professional sports team, Major League Soccer's Sporting Kansas City.

I am confused

Evertime I read aloud Arkansas, I usually will say R-Kansas unless I catch myself.

Quote: speedycrap

I am confused

Part (most?) Of Kansas City isn't in Kansas, but in the neighbouring state, across the Mississippi.

Wizard ,

Did you happen to have a straight bet on the Raiders moneyline yesterday ? It was as high as +510 at some books.


Not a good day at all for upsets. That Oakland one was huge, but otherwise the 2 point dog Bills, 2 point dog Steelers, and 1 point dog Dolphins were the only outright winners.

The only other dog to even stay within the spread was SF +3.5

Good day yesterday - would have been great if not for the friggin Jets - they wrecked a parlay and a nice teaser.

How do you lose that bad to Buffalo??

The Jets have been WLWLWLWLWL all year and they have alternated covering and not for seven straight weeks. They got the big win v. the Saints before the bye so there was let down potential. The Jets were only 1-3 on the road before yesterday and road favorites have only covered 44% of the time this year going into Week 11.

Quote: thecesspit

Part (most?) Of Kansas City isn't in Kansas, but in the neighbouring state, across the Mississippi.

Most.

If all of the Chiefs team was in Kansas City, Kansas maybe they might not fold under pressure.

The Brocnos answered the Missouri state slogan " Show Me ". Manning did, bum ankles and all.

What will the line be in KC next game, I wonder ?

alex smith proved what was already observed when he was with SF. He can throw the short pass, the slant, the5 yard pass to the tight end.....but if he falls behind late and has to throw downfield.....his accuracy diminishes.

Quote: LarryS

alex smith proved what was already observed when he was with SF. He can throw the short pass, the slant, the5 yard pass to the tight end.....but if he falls behind late and has to throw downfield.....his accuracy diminishes.

I've said that to my friends... you don't want Alex Smith to win you games. He can't.

Quote: LarryS

alex smith proved what was already observed when he was with SF. He can throw the short pass, the slant, the5 yard pass to the tight end.....but if he falls behind late and has to throw downfield.....his accuracy diminishes.

What was the stat they showed last night? I don't recall the percentages exactly, but he was best in the NFL inside ten yards and third-worst in the NFL outside of 20 yards, in terms of accuracy.

funny thing is, that his replacement in SF also cant drive the team downfield to win a game either...the one thing smith was crucified for in SF.

in fact Yesterday Kapernick did not drive his team downfield for any touchdowns....both us touchdowns were handed to him inside the 20 yard line by defensive takeways. Asking himto drive 80 yards is a tall order.

SF has played 5 good teams so far this year, and has lost 4 out of 5. The hype about this team should have lost its luser by now.