1arrowheaddr
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October 25th, 2013 at 11:28:58 AM permalink
Bovada has the Yes +250 and No -400. Thoughts?
LarryS
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October 25th, 2013 at 11:54:13 AM permalink
theie best chance was hosting SD who was on short rest and traveling accross country, second best chance was at oakland a few weeks ago.

averaging 11 points a game....I dont see a win in the second half
LarryS
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October 25th, 2013 at 11:54:53 AM permalink
theie best chance was hosting SD who was on short rest and traveling accross country, second best chance was at oakland a few weeks ago.

averaging 11 points a game....I dont see a win in the second half
AZDuffman
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October 25th, 2013 at 12:07:56 PM permalink
No.

0-16 has only happened once, even terrible teams usually catch one team off-guard and get to 1-15.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
Pokeraddict
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October 25th, 2013 at 12:17:41 PM permalink
Quote: LarryS

theie best chance was hosting SD who was on short rest and traveling accross country, second best chance was at oakland a few weeks ago.

averaging 11 points a game....I dont see a win in the second half



You don't think they have a chance against the Texans or Titans?
thecesspit
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October 25th, 2013 at 12:31:51 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

No.

0-16 has only happened once, even terrible teams usually catch one team off-guard and get to 1-15.



The Lions played teams close a few times. Jacksonville haven't yet.

I suspect they will eke out a win. But I do think they are worse than the 0-16 Lions.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
AZDuffman
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October 25th, 2013 at 12:38:23 PM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

The Lions played teams close a few times. Jacksonville haven't yet.

I suspect they will eke out a win. But I do think they are worse than the 0-16 Lions.



Usually the bad teams pick someone off in mid November, when mid-season fatigue has hit but the urgency of the final playoff run has not hit. I will admit I have not watched or paid much attention this year, but historically I expect them to catch someone figuratively napping.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
terapined
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October 25th, 2013 at 12:56:43 PM permalink
The real question should be
Will the Jaguars and Tampa Bucs go 0-16

I'm in Tampa, the Bucs game last nite was an embarrasment.
Jag's may actually be better the the Bucs. lol
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
thecesspit
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October 25th, 2013 at 1:03:32 PM permalink
Quote: terapined

The real question should be
Will the Jaguars and Tampa Bucs go 0-16

I'm in Tampa, the Bucs game last nite was an embarrasment.
Jag's may actually be better the the Bucs. lol



As a life long Lions fan, nothing would please me more than two teams going 0-16 this year.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
1arrowheaddr
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October 25th, 2013 at 1:20:06 PM permalink
Bovada has the total wins for Jags and Buccs combined at 4.5.
LarryS
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October 25th, 2013 at 1:51:25 PM permalink
Quote: Pokeraddict

You don't think they have a chance against the Texans or Titans?




I remeber maybe 8 years back, miami was ready to go winless and baltimore came into town and miami beat them.

So it happens.

I was just thinking that even when the games are meaningless...if 2 teams are out of it....the other team is not going to want the embarrassment of being the team to lose to the jags. In the ned the jags ave 11 points game and their defense is not that good.
Mission146
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October 25th, 2013 at 2:58:46 PM permalink
Look at the difference between the front end of the schedule and the back end.

After losing to the 49ers this week, half of Jacksonville's schedule will be behind them in which they played:

Chiefs 7-0
Raiders 2-4
Seahawks 6-1
Colts 5-2
Rams 3-4
Broncos 6-1
Chargers 4-3
49ers 5-2


These eight unique teams, including the league's only unbeaten team, two of three of the league's only one-loss teams and six total teams with winning records are at a combined 38-17 for a .691 winning record.

On the back end:

Titans 3-4
Cards 3-4
Texans 2-5
Browns 3-4
Texans 2-5
Bills 3-4
Titans 3-4
Colts 5-2


There is only one team with a winning record and these teams are a combined 24-32 for a losing record of .429. Furthermore, Jacksonville (who struggles mainly on offense) is going to get a second crack at two of these teams in the event they lose the first one.

The Raiders can be looked at as just one game. With the Rams, they were against a team that had Bradford when they played them.

The Texans defense has allowed the 6th most points in the entire NFL, at this point, and has the 5th fewest points in their favor on offense.

They're really friggin' bad.

And, Jacksonville gets to play them twice.

Conclusion

I'd say the Jags have a fighting chance in six games (virtually no chance against Colts/Bills UNLESS the Colts aren't playing for anything) and will probably win either one or two. If they win one, I think it will probably be against the Texans, and if they win more than one, I'd say one of the wins will come against the Texans. Those two Texans games are definitely the best chance they have, in my opinion, because of the Texans abyssmal defense.
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LarryS
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October 25th, 2013 at 3:56:43 PM permalink
just opinion but the best shot theyhave is the colts in the last game of the season, if the game is meanngless and alot of players get rested.

jags will be motivated to not be 0-16, and the colts couldnt care less.

texans are a shambles due to injuries,,,,in four weeks this can be a different team on defense...at least better. A week of rest for huston can make a difference.

we will see....anyones guess is just as valid
ThatDonGuy
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October 25th, 2013 at 5:12:24 PM permalink
Quote: LarryS

just opinion but the best shot theyhave is the colts in the last game of the season, if the game is meanngless and alot of players get rested.


One problem - the only way the Colts rest is if they have home field throughout the AFC playoffs locked up, and they already have two losses.
LarryS
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October 25th, 2013 at 5:27:43 PM permalink
true thats why I said meaningless.....sometimes they get locked into a slot where they cannot improve win or lose.

the colts did this under manning, where he rested for the jets, the jets win and make the payoffs, and I think they even lost a perfect season

If its a meaningless game.there is a shot.

and if they dont have homefield advantage, and cannot possibly gain homefield advantage in the last game...then I would even give the jags a look
Mission146
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October 25th, 2013 at 5:31:11 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

One problem - the only way the Colts rest is if they have home field throughout the AFC playoffs locked up, and they already have two losses.



Yes and no.

There are a few other scenarios:

1.) They will win the Division, however, they cannot secure home field in either the WildCard Playoffs or the AFC Playoffs, due to record.

2.) They will win the Division and they will have home field in the WildCard round, however, they cannot possibly have home field in the AFC Playoffs, due to record.

3.) They will lose the Division, not have home field at all, but already have a record sufficient to be a WildCard team.
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Mission146
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October 25th, 2013 at 5:55:47 PM permalink
I would say that there is almost no question that they could be worse than the 2008 Detroit Lions, even if they do manage to win one or two games.

Points For projects to: 76/7 * 16 = 174

Points Against projects to: 222/7 * 16 - 507

Points Differential projects to: -333

The numbers for the 2008 Lions:

Points For: 268

Points Against: 517

Point Differential: -249


The reason I say, "Could be," though is because they have faced the best offenses they will face, (with possible exception to playing the Colts again, depending on what the Colts are playing for, if anything) and that Texans Defense will be the weakest they have seen this year, (at this point) with exception to Denver. The Texans (at this point) will also be the weakest Offense they have seen this year, with exception to Oakland.

Worst team ever...

Tough call.

If they win two games, I'll not even consider it. If they win one game, then I'd be inclined to look at Points Differential for the entire season. The Jaguars have not lost by less than ten so far this year while the 2008 Lions lost six games by nine points or fewer.

Overall, if they only win one game, I think I would need to see at least two other games where they lose by nine points or fewer to declare them better than that Lions team.

If they don't win any games, then I'd probably want to see them come within nine or fewer on at least five games, then I'd go to Points Differential.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
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October 25th, 2013 at 6:10:06 PM permalink
I would say that Tampa Bay is really close to out of the question for being worse than those 2008 Lions.

1.) They have already come within nine points or fewer in four games.

2.) The project to score 228 points, less than that Lions team, but...

A.) They are just below middle-of-the-pack on defense, they project to allow only 373 points, which would be 144 fewer than those Lions, resulting in:

3.) Their Points Differential projects to only -144, which is 105 points better than that Lions team.

Although, the second half of the season is where things REALLY turned south for the Detroit Lions. The reason is because four of the games that they lost by nine, or fewer, came in their first eight games of the season. If ineptitude takes the same toll on the Buccaneers, then it will be hard to tell.
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terapined
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October 25th, 2013 at 6:31:11 PM permalink
I'm surprised no Bucs talk. We deserve the same disrespect that the Jags are getting.
I'm in Tampa and its pretty bad.
1st off, things were actually not too bad looking after 1st 4 games. 3 of the games were lost by a total of 6 points. Just a play here or there in those 3 games and the bucs could have started the season 3-1.
Its gone way down hill. Coach undermined starting QB and then got rid of him. pretty ugly. We went from competing and almost winning to embarrassing now.
Coach will probably be fired any day, its that bad.
Anyway, Jags got the easy schedule rest of the way. Remaining opponents record 29-34. Bucs have a tough schedule, remaining opponents record 35-25
Actually considering throwing out a bet, Jags win before bucs. Hmm, what do you all think?
On 2nd thought, naw, don't want root against the home team.
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
Mission146
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October 25th, 2013 at 6:57:22 PM permalink
Quote: terapined

I'm surprised no Bucs talk. We deserve the same disrespect that the Jags are getting.
I'm in Tampa and its pretty bad.



LOL, I just addressed the Bucs in my post immediately before yours!

Quote:

1st off, things were actually not too bad looking after 1st 4 games. 3 of the games were lost by a total of 6 points. Just a play here or there in those 3 games and the bucs could have started the season 3-1.
Its gone way down hill. Coach undermined starting QB and then got rid of him. pretty ugly. We went from competing and almost winning to embarrassing now.
Coach will probably be fired any day, its that bad.



Josh Freeman undermined himself by virtue of absolutely sucking. In the three games that he played for them this season, he completed a horrific 45.7% of his passes. He threw two touchdowns against three interceptions and had a total of 571 yards in 94 attempts for 6.07 yards/attempt.

His QB rating in these games is a combined 59.31.

He's just awful.

That's the problem, you lose all of those close games and you have a QB who sucks and can't even manage to lead your team to victory in any of those winnable games. That's because he sucks.

He had that one really good year in 2010 and was slightly better than awful last year. In his other two complete NFL Seasons, he threw more interceptions than touchdowns.

You're not supposed to throw more interceptions than touchdowns.

But, he did. Why? Because he sucks.


Quote:

Anyway, Jags got the easy schedule rest of the way. Remaining opponents record 29-34. Bucs have a tough schedule, remaining opponents record 35-25
Actually considering throwing out a bet, Jags win before Bucs. Hmm, what do you all think?
On 2nd thought, naw, don't want root against the home team.



It's tough to say, the Bucs Defense could give them a chance on any given day, but Josh Freeman sure couldn't...because Josh Freeman sucks.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
terapined
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October 25th, 2013 at 7:15:35 PM permalink
Yup, Freeman sucked but he's also gone,
Our QB now is Mike Glennon. Yup, so sought after he lasted till the 3rd round of the recent draft. We are hooking our wagon to a QB deemed 7th best in the last draft. 59 players and 6 QB's were drafted before him. Hmm, lets see how long he lasts.
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
seattledice
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October 25th, 2013 at 7:26:48 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146


Josh Freeman undermined himself by virtue of absolutely sucking.

...

He's just awful.

... a QB who sucks .... That's because he sucks.

....

But, he did. Why? Because he sucks.

...because Josh Freeman sucks.



Yes, but how do you really feel about him?
Mission146
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October 25th, 2013 at 7:55:49 PM permalink
Quote: terapined

Yup, Freeman sucked but he's also gone,
Our QB now is Mike Glennon. Yup, so sought after he lasted till the 3rd round of the recent draft. We are hooking our wagon to a QB deemed 7th best in the last draft. 59 players and 6 QB's were drafted before him. Hmm, lets see how long he lasts.



Mike Glennon is worlds above Josh Freeman this year. His line is 106/181 completing 58.6% of his passes with 6 TD's against 3 Picks for a QB Rating of 78.0.

Josh Freeman had that QB Rating of a combined 59.31 in those three games he started for TB this year. As a point of reference, Tim Tebow only had four GAMES in which he was the starter and had a worse QB Rating, in his entire career.

Speaking of careers, did you know that Josh Freeman's QB Rating is only 2.3 points higher than Tim Tebow's for his career, despite that really good 2010 season? If you take that season out, then his Career QB Rating would be 72.2, 3.2 points worse than Tim Tebow's 75.5 Career QB Rating.

He's not terribly good...
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
tringlomane
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October 25th, 2013 at 8:21:50 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

I would say that there is almost no question that they could be worse than the 2008 Detroit Lions, even if they do manage to win one or two games.
Points Differential Stats: snipped



I agree this is a decent start to a prediction. But hasn't the average score gone up a bit since 2008 too? Average score increases...so do average point differentials for the best/worst teams.
Mission146
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October 25th, 2013 at 9:12:38 PM permalink
Quote: tringlomane

I agree this is a decent start to a prediction. But hasn't the average score gone up a bit since 2008 too? Average score increases...so do average point differentials for the best/worst teams.



2008---44.07
2009---42.95
2010---44.1
2011---44.38
2012---45.52
2013---46.08

Okay, so you have a two-point PPG difference between 2008 and so far in 2013. The Jaguars are on pace for a points differential 84 points worse than the 2008 Lions, which would be -5.25 points worse differential per game. Even if you assume all of the extra points (on average) go against the Jaguars, you still have a points differential of -3.24 worse than the 2008 Lions, per game, to account for.
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tringlomane
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October 25th, 2013 at 10:31:52 PM permalink
Yeah, I wasn't sure how anemic the JAX offense really was, but even after the max adjustment, I thought they might have been worse than the '08 Lions. Makes me sad since Gabbert is from my alma mater.

This says it all really (not from this season):

NokTang
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October 26th, 2013 at 1:23:06 AM permalink
Quote: tringlomane


This says it all really (not from this season):



Why are those guys wiping their noses instead of their eyes or arses?
thecesspit
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October 26th, 2013 at 1:47:52 AM permalink
Quote: terapined

Yup, Freeman sucked but he's also gone,
Our QB now is Mike Glennon. Yup, so sought after he lasted till the 3rd round of the recent draft. We are hooking our wagon to a QB deemed 7th best in the last draft. 59 players and 6 QB's were drafted before him. Hmm, lets see how long he lasts.



Many QBs have been taken mid draft and had much success in the NFL. If he has any feel for the game, he will be given a long chance.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Mission146
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October 26th, 2013 at 2:02:01 AM permalink
Quote: NokTang

Quote: tringlomane


This says it all really (not from this season):



Why are those guys wiping their noses instead of their eyes or arses?



I believe it is that horrific stench of failure that permeates the air every time Jacksonville takes the ball on offense.

It's 3rd & Goal on the 3 yard line, the date is 10/18/10 and this guy knows that the Jaguars are not going to score this touchdown because they absolutely suck. Maurice Jones-Drew just got stuffed for a one yard gain, so now it is on the three-yard line and Trent Edwards is about to throw and incomplete pass, because that's what Trent Edwards does best.

Fortunately, after this incomplete pass, there was an Offsides called on the Titans which made it 3rd & Goal at the one-yard line.

But, the Quarterback is still Trent Edwards.

After throwing another beautiful incomplete pass, the Jaguars were forced to go for it on Fourth & Goal at the one-yard line.

Trent Edwards, despite a gaping hole in the defense giving him a reasonable opportunity to run for a touchdown, decided to throw the ball into double coverage, at which point, it was picked off in the endzone for a Touchback

Because he is Trent Edwards and they are the Jacksonville Jaguars. Of course, BEING the Jacksonville Jaguars is how a glorified third-stringer like Trent Edwards becomes your starting quarterback in the first place.

The game would end 30-3, bringing the Jaguars to 3-3 on the season. They finished that season 8-8, so it was one of their better years, really.

I feel sorry for the fan in that picture, if only he had known what was to come three short years later, he would have celebrated Trent Edwards' ineptitude, and rejoiced in what was, at that point, a 3-3 season.

The following year, the Jaguars would not win their third game of the season until Week 10, last year they would only win twice in the season.

This year, perhaps not at all?

That disgusted fan didn't know how good he had it...
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