bigfoot66
bigfoot66
Joined: Feb 5, 2010
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October 10th, 2014 at 10:01:49 AM permalink
Man, I just don't know that I could take the Raiders +7.5 versus a very good Chargers team...
Vote for Nobody 2020!
terapined
terapined
Joined: Dec 1, 2012
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October 10th, 2014 at 10:55:12 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Week 6 plays:

Bears +3.5
Dolphins +3.5
Bengals -6.5
Patriots -2.5
Buccs +3.5
Raiders +7.5
Panthers +7.5



Thanks Wiz
I'm all over this.
Will be in downtown Vegas Sat nite to lay down some parlay bets.
This low roller is going for it.
100 invested into 5 20 dollar bets, 5 team parlay bets using different combinations of the above picks.
"Everybody's bragging and drinking that wine, I can tell the Queen of Diamonds by the way she shines, Come to Daddy on an inside straight, I got no chance of losing this time" -Grateful Dead- "Loser"
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
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October 10th, 2014 at 11:37:38 AM permalink
The LSU vs Florida line has flipped: FLA -1.5

PHI -2.5 is interesting. I could certainly see the line go to -3.
z2newton
z2newton
Joined: Mar 22, 2014
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October 10th, 2014 at 11:49:06 AM permalink
Wizard,

Last week I was surprised to see ATL +4.5 as one of the warm picks and a couple of weeks ago Jets +8.5 as well. Last week on sunday pinacle had the ATL at +4.5 and bodog had them at +4. I'm just wondering why you decided ATL and Jets might be a good bet? Neither crossed the 3 or 7 and I think they were both away games. If they were home dogs it might be different.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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October 10th, 2014 at 1:06:24 PM permalink
Quote: z2newton

Wizard,

Last week I was surprised to see ATL +4.5 as one of the warm picks and a couple of weeks ago Jets +8.5 as well. Last week on sunday pinacle had the ATL at +4.5 and bodog had them at +4. I'm just wondering why you decided ATL and Jets might be a good bet? Neither crossed the 3 or 7 and I think they were both away games. If they were home dogs it might be different.



At the time I said ATL +4.5 the market line was probably +3.5 or +4. With the Jets, the market line was probably +7.5 at the time. Please keep in mind that lines shift. The later you can get your bets in, the greater your advantage. However, it is also harder to get the cards in the closer you get to Sunday morning.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
FunkyDoctor
FunkyDoctor
Joined: Jan 18, 2013
  • Threads: 10
  • Posts: 73
October 10th, 2014 at 1:26:38 PM permalink
Quote: z2newton

Wizard,

Last week I was surprised to see ATL +4.5 as one of the warm picks and a couple of weeks ago Jets +8.5 as well. Last week on sunday pinacle had the ATL at +4.5 and bodog had them at +4. I'm just wondering why you decided ATL and Jets might be a good bet? Neither crossed the 3 or 7 and I think they were both away games. If they were home dogs it might be different.



I will let Mike give his own answer to your question, but here is my input...

Regarding the ATL pick, I would not put too much stock into any one sports book's line, but instead look at what the market as a whole believes the correct line and price should be. For that, I look to the consensus lines posted on Vegas Insider. Last Sunday morning, the consensus line on ATL was +4 at -110. Being able to bet them at +4.5 gives you a 51.6% probability of winning...just a bit better than 50/50, thus a "warm" pick by Mike.

That said, I would not (and did not) add that pick to my 5 team parlays. To break even against the house edge on a 5 leg parlay, each pick needs to have an advantage of about 52.5% on average. Adding ATL at 51.6% to the parlay card will pull down the overall advantage of other teams on the ticket - such as the Rams from last Sunday where the market at game time said +4.5 was fair, but some cards had them listed at +7.5...a 60.7% advantage. There were too many other good options last weekend to bet ATL.

Also keep in mind that this is pure value betting, not handicapping. You are taking advantage of differences in the betting lines between the half point cards and the fair market lines, and placing bets with whichever way the difference works in your favor. Factors like home and away don't come into play when deciding who to bet. Of course, if your handicapping skills are better than the market as a whole, by all means add that to your betting strategy for an even larger edge.

One last point...the half point cards come out on Thursday and Mike posts his picks on Friday, but the market continues to move and adjust all the way until game time. Thus, what Mike posts as an advantage on Friday may no longer have an edge by kickoff. In fact, it is possible the advantage could even go negative on you. Ideally, you should be making your picks and placing your bets as close to kickoff as possible.
NokTang
NokTang
Joined: Aug 15, 2011
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October 10th, 2014 at 9:31:03 PM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

The LSU vs Florida line has flipped: FLA -1.5



The back up Florida quarterback, soon to have been the starter, was reinstated and the sexual battering/rape charges never filed. However, the coach said he won't play this weekend. I'm surprised this somewhat neutral news would move the line. Is there any other news?
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
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October 10th, 2014 at 10:24:08 PM permalink
Quote: NokTang

The back up Florida quarterback, soon to have been the starter, was reinstated and the sexual battering/rape charges never filed. However, the coach said he won't play this weekend. I'm surprised this somewhat neutral news would move the line. Is there any other news?


I have no other news or data to help with this game. I just wanted to mention the line change on the parlay cards....
Rigondeaux
Rigondeaux
Joined: Aug 18, 2014
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October 10th, 2014 at 11:16:41 PM permalink
A bit worrisome. I was at CP tonight and saw that they had taken eight, yes eight, hot college sides off the cards.

Some of them were just stupid. Like Alabama, which hasn't moved much and which would be a big side on all the square cards. Others were small advantages to the player. None of the moves were really that big.

Part of this might be the hot college sides crushing last week. I went 8-0 in college, though, unfortunately, I just sprinkle in a few college games usually. So I didn't make that much, but someone else could have.
Wizard
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Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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October 12th, 2014 at 1:31:01 PM permalink
Buccs +3.5 was a huge card killer this week. All the other morning games survived. Only one card left standing that didn't have TB but it still needs Bears +3.5 and Oak +7.5.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.

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