Half Point Parlay Cards
Here are the results so far this season:
Bets: $9,715
Return: $20,000
Rate of return: 206%.
I'm trying to lead the horse to water here. Hopefully y'all are paying attention.
Quote: WizardIndeed, good game Ravens. Remember the commandment, "Thou shalt not hedge thy bets." I keep telling myself this in times like this, and sometimes I don't listen to myself.
Here are the results so far this season:
Bets: $9,715
Return: $20,000
Rate of return: 206%.
I'm trying to lead the horse to water here. Hopefully y'all are paying attention.
I'm paying attention and since I'd never heard of these before, I'm trying to learn.
I remember you posting the losses but guess I haven't paid attention to the wins. That's a nice rate of return!
Umm...can you start a hedge fund? :)Quote: Wizard
Bets: $9,715
Return: $20,000
Rate of return: 206%..
Quote: WizardIndeed, good game Ravens. Remember the commandment, "Thou shalt not hedge thy bets." I keep telling myself this in times like this, and sometimes I don't listen to myself.
Here are the results so far this season:
Bets: $9,715
Return: $20,000
Rate of return: 206%.
I'm trying to lead the horse to water here. Hopefully y'all are paying attention.
Can you give a ratio of winning vs losing tickets up to this point?
Quote: rainmanCan you give a ratio of winning vs losing tickets up to this point?
Not exactly. I'd estimate 13 losers to every one winner.
I shouldn't toot my own horn too loudly. I fully admit that I'm exceeding expectations.
OR Maybe you should.Quote: WizardNot exactly. I'd estimate 13 losers to every one winner.
I shouldn't toot my own horn too loudly. I fully admit that I'm exceeding expectations.
Have you had years doing this that were under expectation ? Of Course you have.
Now it's probably making up for it.
Unfortunately for us, I believe we are getting better value, percentages wize, skipping marginal value games or ones that actually end up matching the correct line. They end up coming in causing less winners.
Strong plays:
Hou -6.5
Buf -2.5
NYG -2.5
Pats +3.5
Not a very strong week. I'd suggest just doing that four-teamer.
Quote: djatcWizard how early do you pick up these half point sheets, and how early do you think they come out?
They come out late Wednesday or early Thursday. I put them in on Thursday or Friday.
I know the next post will take me to task for not waiting longer, but the longer you wait, the more heat you get.
Quote: z2newtonAnyone have a William Hill card for this week?
It's a great week on this so far. If the Cowboys cover +3.5 it will be very good. If saints cover tomorrow night we will crush the sportsbook!
Quote: bigfoot66It's a great week on this so far. If the Cowboys cover +3.5 it will be very good. If saints cover tomorrow night we will crush the sportsbook!
Great. Thanks for posting the card and picks.
Quote: bigfoot66I got to Vegas at 6:00 Saturday night and didn't get to the sportsbook until 8:30 so I'm not sure I could have helped you even if I posted it. But there were 5 picks that were off of a 3 point line. I took a 5 teamer and 5 4 teasers...all won! I realized a ROI of about 1000%.
Wow, that's huge! well done!
Quote: bigfoot66I got to Vegas at 6:00 Saturday night and didn't get to the sportsbook until 8:30 so I'm not sure I could have helped you even if I posted it. But there were 5 picks that were off of a 3 point line. I took a 5 teamer and 5 4 teasers...all won! I realized a ROI of about 1000%.
It may have helped if you posted some numbers. For me the nearest sportsbook is a 4 hour round trip. I probably would have gotten up early Sunday and at least thought about making the trip. 2 weeks ago looked really good. At least 5 3 point lines. Not sure if they were all -2.5 on the cards though.
Congrats. Which book did you use?
Looks like the wizard is back. Hopefully he'll post a card.
Tables from wizards' article.
So this should really be computed on a "to 1" basis instead of a "for 1" basis. Correct?
Hopefully I copy and pasted correctly and didn't get some column and rows mixed up.
| Legs | Pays to 1 | prob. win | house edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 5.5 | 0.125000 | -0.3125 |
| 4 | 12 | 0.062500 | -0.25 |
| 5 | 24 | 0.031250 | -0.25 |
| 6 | 49 | 0.015625 | -0.234375 |
| 7 | 99 | 0.007813 | -0.226513 |
| 8 | 199 | 0.003906 | -0.222706 |
| 9 | 399 | 0.001953 | -0.220753 |
| 10 | 849 | 0.000977 | -0.170527 |
| 11 | 1,599 | 0.000488 | -0.219688 |
| 12 | 2,999 | 0.000244 | -0.268244 |
| Legs | Pays to 1 | prob. win | house edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 5.5 | 0.146839 | -0.1923855 |
| 4 | 12 | 0.077468 | -0.070384 |
| 5 | 24 | 0.040870 | -0.01912 |
| 6 | 49 | 0.021562 | 0.056538 |
| 7 | 99 | 0.011375 | 0.126125 |
| 8 | 199 | 0.006001 | 0.194199 |
| 9 | 399 | 0.003166 | 0.263234 |
| 10 | 849 | 0.001670 | 0.417830 |
| 11 | 1,599 | 0.000881 | 0.408719 |
| 12 | 2,999 | 0.000465 | 0.394535 |
| Legs | Pays to 1 | prob. win | house edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 5.5 | 0.161187 | -0.1134715 |
| 4 | 12 | 0.087722 | 0.052664 |
| 5 | 24 | 0.047740 | 0.145760 |
| 6 | 49 | 0.025981 | 0.273069 |
| 7 | 99 | 0.014140 | 0.399860 |
| 8 | 199 | 0.007695 | 0.531305 |
| 9 | 399 | 0.004188 | 0.671012 |
| 10 | 849 | 0.002279 | 0.934871 |
| 11 | 1,599 | 0.001240 | 0.982760 |
| 12 | 2,999 | 0.000675 | 1.024325 |
Quote: z2newtonJust remembered there are games tomorrow. Cards??
Ask and ye shall receive. Week 16 William Hill card below. Click on it for a larger image.
Strong card this week! Here are my recommended strongest plays.
| Pick | Market |
|---|---|
| GB -10.5 | -12 |
| Det -6.5 | -8.5 |
| NEP -9.5 | -10.5 |
| StL -4.5 | -6.5 |
| Buf -5.5 | -7 |
| Dal -2.5 | -3.5 |
BTW, I hear the William Hill books in Reno pay even better odds. Can anybody confirm or deny?
Quote: Wizard
BTW, I hear the William Hill books in Reno pay even better odds. Can anybody confirm or deny?
That is correct. About 4-6% better payouts. The tickets read "Northern Nevada Parlay Card" or something of that nature.
LVA Sports shows a side-by-side picture at:
I would be curious to see how this affects odds. I did some ballparking and I like it, although I always seem to miss by one team.
Quote: clamchowderI would be curious to see how this affects odds.
So was I. The following table shows the expected value, based on a 54% chance of picking each leg correctly.
| Legs | Southern Nevada Pays | Northern Nevada Pays | Prob. Win | Southern Nevada EV | Northern Nevada EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.75 | 15.75% | 2.35% | 6.29% |
| 4 | 13 | 13 | 8.50% | 10.54% | 10.54% |
| 5 | 25 | 26 | 4.59% | 14.79% | 19.38% |
| 6 | 50 | 52 | 2.48% | 23.97% | 28.93% |
| 7 | 100 | 104 | 1.34% | 33.89% | 39.25% |
| 8 | 190 | 208 | 0.72% | 37.37% | 50.39% |
| 9 | 400 | 425 | 0.39% | 56.17% | 65.93% |
| 10 | 825 | 850 | 0.21% | 73.94% | 79.21% |
| 11 | 1500 | 1500 | 0.11% | 70.77% | 70.77% |
| 12 | 3000 | 3000 | 0.06% | 84.44% | 84.44% |
Atlantis Reno is also an independent book, but I do not have information on their cards. MGM and Caesar's have Reno books, but I do not know whether their cards match the Vegas cards. Everyone else that I know of in Northern Nevada is William Hill although I have read about some odd little places in Tahoe that ran independent.
If no one does it before the 2015 season starts, I will run around next time I am in Reno and compare those other three. I could also snap photos if you are interested in adding to the Parlay Bets page. But no Reno trips planned for me in the next couple weeks.
Quote: clamchowderIf no one does it before the 2015 season starts, I will run around next time I am in Reno and compare those other three. I could also snap photos if you are interested in adding to the Parlay Bets page. But no Reno trips planned for me in the next couple weeks.
I would indeed be interested in those other cards and would add the payoffs to my page if given the information.
Peppermill:
3...........6.75 for 1
4...........13
5...........26
6...........50
7...........100
8...........200
9...........420
10.........850
Quote: z2newtonThe Peppermill doesn't have a "1/2 point" parlay card. It's just called a parlay card. I'd say 95 percent of the lines on the card are on a .5 point but some are full points.
Thanks. I expect the full points are usually 3 and 7.
Quote: z2newtonThe Peppermill doesn't have a "1/2 point" parlay card. It's just called a parlay card. I'd say 95 percent of the lines on the card are on a .5 point but some are full points.
This is true. Ties reduce action to the lesser payout, i.e. a 5-team becomes a 4-team. So there's less of a chance of getting key-number 1/2 points. But they also have different numbers than William Hill, so lines between the two cards can vary by a whole point.
Quote: bigfoot66Extremely strong card this week. I made several bets totaling $120 and each card took a long time to print (most were $15). The ticket writer said, "the Rams line is really good so they have to approve them all in Vegas". I almost laughed out loud. The Rams line is ok but the Cowboys, lions, and pats lines are much stronger. I made a couple of smaller but identical plays to avoid heat rather than making large bets. Not sure if it was necessary but this is a great play and I would prefer not to be on their radar at all.
Agreed. Good card this week. The writer at Hooters said certain games had moved and automatically triggered review.
There was only one window open and I was making the people behind me in line very impatient as I had to wait to get through about 20 cards but they were all approved.
Quote: WizardI hope you guys didn't bet too much. I'm 2-5 on my big plays.
Luckily no. Given how volatile the lines were it'll be interesting to see what happens this week with the last game of the regular season assuming playoff teams are going to be resting/limited action of key players.
Pick 3: 6.5
Pick 4: 12
Pick 5: 25
Pick 6: 45
Pick 7: 80
Pick 8: 160
The only one worth doing is the pick 5.
Click on image for larger version.
Wizard picks:
Colts -6.5 (market -7)
Panthers +3.5 (market +3)
Chargers +2.5 (market +1)
Saints -3.5 (market -4)
Ravens -10.5 (market -13)
Bears +6.5 (market +6)
Redskins +6.5 (market +5.5)
In general, not a very strong week. Many of these plays are pretty weak and just there to fill out the card.
A bit off topic but let me go on record as saying that I like Browns money line at +900 and Raiders +1100. Hopefully I'll be saying "I told you so" tomorrow.
You like them because you believe there is a statistical advantage or because you're handicapping them ,or both?Quote: WizardHere is the last regular season parlay cards for William Hill and the South Point casinos. Speaking of the South Point casinos, they also depressed most of their pays. They are now:
Pick 3: 6.5
Pick 4: 12
Pick 5: 25
Pick 6: 45
Pick 7: 80
Pick 8: 160
The only one worth doing is the pick 5.
Click on image for larger version.
Wizard picks:
Colts -6.5 (market -7)
Panthers +3.5 (market +3)
Chargers +2.5 (market +1)
Saints -3.5 (market -4)
Ravens -10.5 (market -13)
Bears +6.5 (market +6)
Redskins +6.5 (market +5.5)
In general, not a very strong week. Many of these plays are pretty weak and just there to fill out the card.
A bit off topic but let me go on record as saying that I like Browns money line at +900 and Raiders +1100. Hopefully I'll be saying "I told you so" tomorrow.
Quote: AxelWolfYou like them because you believe there is a statistical advantage or because you're handicapping them ,or both?
Statistical advantage. I almost never handicap.
Quote: KeeneoneThe Southpoint card image has cut off most/all of the spreads.
Oops. Try this one
Quote: Wizard
Oops. Try this one
Thanks for posting.
Browns money line with 3rd quarterback, no J. Gordon and @ the Ravens. Interesting play, I know you are not handicapping these and I am routing for you.
----------
The W. Vir/Texas AM line is now @ W.Vir -1 (with the loss of their first string QB).
Quote: Wizard
A bit off topic but let me go on record as saying that I like Browns money line at +900 and Raiders +1100. Hopefully I'll be saying "I told you so" tomorrow.
Online, showing...
Browns +650 and Raiders +725
Regardless, good luck!
Quote: NokTangOnline, showing...
Browns +650 and Raiders +725
Regardless, good luck!
I got the lines I mentioned at the Rampart, which is part of the South Point group. Goes to show that you get a better value on underdogs here in town.
Quote: Wizard
Wizard picks:
Colts -6.5 (market -7)
Panthers +3.5 (market +3)
Chargers +2.5 (market +1)
Saints -3.5 (market -4)
Ravens -10.5 (market -13)
Bears +6.5 (market +6)
Redskins +6.5 (market +5.5)
In general, not a very strong week. Many of these plays are pretty weak and just there to fill out the card.
A bit off topic but let me go on record as saying that I like Browns money line at +900 and Raiders +1100. Hopefully I'll be saying "I told you so" tomorrow.
I wish the Wiz was saying I old you so.
He's been so hot in the NFL pool picks.
played a combo of william hill 1/2 point cards of above and took money line Bowns Raiders.
Didn't do to well :-(
Have to take solace in the wiz's sig, it was a good bet.
Quote: wudgedWizard, what were your final season results if you don't mind sharing?
bet $11,615
return $20,000
Win +72%
Those are John Paulson and T. Boone Pickens numbers.Quote: Wizardbet $11,615
return $20,000
Win +72%
