Poll

13 votes (46.42%)
No votes (0%)
3 votes (10.71%)
10 votes (35.71%)
No votes (0%)
3 votes (10.71%)
7 votes (25%)
1 vote (3.57%)
2 votes (7.14%)
2 votes (7.14%)

28 members have voted

Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1491
  • Posts: 26435
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
October 14th, 2019 at 1:12:08 PM permalink


In my gradual series on vulteralbe slots, my next one is looking like Harley Davidson.

For those who don't know what "vulterable" means, it is kind of like a progressive, where the return of a game will depend on factors left by the previous player. In the industry, they are called "variable state" games. Some players, who know about such games, are known to only play when such games are in a high enough state for the expected return to be over 100%. Thus, they are compared to vultures, looking for a nice peace of meat left by the previous player.

For those who did know about the play, it has been known for a while so I would say it isn't any big secret.

In the case of Harley Davidson, there are symbols on reel 5 that if the game stops on them anywhere on the screen, it feeds a free game into one of the bonus meters. When the player gets two scatters and such a symbol, then he gets to play the free spin bonus with as many free spins as in the meter at the table. If the previous player left enough free spins in the meters, it is a good time to swoop in and play.

As an example, in the picture at the top, there are 23 free spins in the Mini meter, 30 in the Maxi meter, and 97 in the Mega meter.

So, "When is it good enough to play?," you may ask. (Do I put the comma inside or outside the parenthesis?)

This has previously been analyzed by a source who shall remain nameless and his work shared with me with permission to write about.

After a lot of math, the return of the game is estimated to be 80.18% + 0.39% * Mini + 0.25% * Maxi + 0.09% * Mega.

In the case of the photo above, the return would be 0.8018 + 0.0039 * 23 + 0.0025 * 30 + 0.0009 * 97 = 105.38%. So, that would definitely be playable.

The question for the poll is what are your thoughts on Harley Davidson?
Last edited by: Wizard on Oct 29, 2019
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
smoothgrh
smoothgrh
  • Threads: 86
  • Posts: 1251
Joined: Oct 26, 2011
Thanked by
sodawaterMosca
October 14th, 2019 at 1:30:47 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard


So, "When is it good enough to play?," you may ask. (Do I put the comma inside or outside the parenthesis?)



Don't use a comma at all—the question mark does the punctuation work.

I'll look for these slots on my next casino visit!
sodawater
sodawater
  • Threads: 64
  • Posts: 3321
Joined: May 14, 2012
October 14th, 2019 at 1:54:46 PM permalink
Quote: smoothgrh

Don't use a comma at all—the question mark does the punctuation work.



Correct. Also note not to use consecutive capitalized words. Best to just remove the "So," and start with the question.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
  • Threads: 164
  • Posts: 22272
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
Thanked by
Forager
October 14th, 2019 at 4:17:53 PM permalink
Wizard" So, that would definitely be playable."

Is this based on a parsheet?

If not, I'm skeptical.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Rigondeaux
Rigondeaux
  • Threads: 30
  • Posts: 2549
Joined: Aug 18, 2014
Thanked by
Forager
October 14th, 2019 at 4:28:02 PM permalink
I'm glad the wiz waited a while to post this, though I'd obviously prefer he never did.

I echo axles warning to err on the side of caution with this machine. It can be really nasty.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1491
  • Posts: 26435
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
October 14th, 2019 at 4:29:22 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

If not, I'm skeptical.



You have the right to be. I'm not at liberty to say much about the math behind it.

I'm sure there are already Harley vultures on the forum. I'd be interested to hear if my formula sounds reasonable at least. Rigondeaux?
Last edited by: Wizard on Oct 29, 2019
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
  • Threads: 240
  • Posts: 13886
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
October 14th, 2019 at 4:37:05 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

You have the right to be. I'm not at liberty to say much about the math behind it.



You do not say how many credits needed to max the free-plays. At a glance here this looks like a machine going to eat $3 or more per spin.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
jumpingjack
jumpingjack
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 7
Joined: Oct 3, 2019
October 14th, 2019 at 4:48:23 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

You do not say how many credits needed to max the free-plays. At a glance here this looks like a machine going to eat $3 or more per spin.



it varies I believe there are 5 betting levels and each level has it's own set of spins so you have to bet the level that has the spins. I have been doing this a while
Katch
Katch
  • Threads: 4
  • Posts: 23
Joined: Feb 5, 2018
October 14th, 2019 at 6:56:45 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

, e return would be 0.8018 + 0.0038 * 23 + 0.0025 * 30 + 0.0010 * 97 = 105.38%....



What's wrong with my math... 0.8018+0.0874+0.075+0.097= 1.0612?
Katch
Katch
  • Threads: 4
  • Posts: 23
Joined: Feb 5, 2018
October 14th, 2019 at 7:29:32 PM permalink
Is that base the same on all cabinets or are there different settings available?
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1491
  • Posts: 26435
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
Thanked by
Katch
October 15th, 2019 at 7:37:12 AM permalink
Quote: Katch

What's wrong with my math... 0.8018+0.0874+0.075+0.097= 1.0612?



I rounded my factors the wrong way in my original post, which seems to account for the disparity.

As to the question on betting levels, I'll have to look into that.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1491
  • Posts: 26435
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
October 29th, 2019 at 5:42:21 PM permalink
My Harley Davidson page is now up at WoO. I welcome all comments.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
  • Threads: 80
  • Posts: 7237
Joined: Mar 11, 2010
Thanked by
Ayecarumba
October 29th, 2019 at 6:23:48 PM permalink
Wow, how did I miss this until now? This is my bread and butter play. Both because it's all that's really available here & because thats about all I could buy with my winnings.

Some places you can find 40/80/120/160/200 credit bet levels. More common is 80/160/240/320/400. Each bet has a different bank of free spins. To the extent that lower bet levels get more play, it's more common to find value at lower bets.

Axel is right that this is a hard game. It's not an in and out play like golden Egypt or ocean magic. Playing for these free spins is more like grinding out a must-hit progressive. It can take a long time and leave you significantly underwater despite the advantage you theoretically had.

One minor issue from the woo page - the wheel bonus's return is only constant in places with a fixed jackpot value. More commonly, the jackpot is variable and the wheel bonus's return fluctuates very slightly as the jackpot value changes.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
100xOdds
100xOdds
  • Threads: 638
  • Posts: 4256
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
October 30th, 2019 at 10:19:58 AM permalink
Quote: Rigondeaux

I'm glad the wiz waited a while to post this, though I'd obviously prefer he never did.

I echo axles warning to err on the side of caution with this machine. It can be really nasty.


these harley slots are dying.
all of them have been removed from the casinos near me
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
100xOdds
100xOdds
  • Threads: 638
  • Posts: 4256
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
October 30th, 2019 at 10:22:13 AM permalink
Quote: Katch

Is that base the same on all cabinets or are there different settings available?

one type of cabinet has a fixed $10k jackpot for the top prize.
another has a progressive top prize.

no clue how this affects the return #s in the Wiz's OP
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
PokerGrinder
PokerGrinder
  • Threads: 26
  • Posts: 5013
Joined: Apr 30, 2015
October 30th, 2019 at 10:30:25 AM permalink
They took them out of my local casinos over 6 months ago.
You can shear a sheep a hundred times, but you can skin it only once. — Amarillo Slim Preston
Rigondeaux
Rigondeaux
  • Threads: 30
  • Posts: 2549
Joined: Aug 18, 2014
Thanked by
tringlomane
October 30th, 2019 at 11:06:41 AM permalink
At some point before they started vanishing, they had already made some sort of adjustment to the payouts. They could still be +EV, I think. I don't know at exactly what point, but I wouldn't play unless I saw one that was really good.

So that's something to be aware of. If you are vulturing a machine and doing well, and then all of the sudden you start to run horribly, it might not just be variance.
PokerGrinder
PokerGrinder
  • Threads: 26
  • Posts: 5013
Joined: Apr 30, 2015
October 30th, 2019 at 11:22:46 AM permalink
I agree, I had adjusted my starting numbers drastically. I was only playing when mini was 55 or something like that.
You can shear a sheep a hundred times, but you can skin it only once. — Amarillo Slim Preston
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
  • Threads: 212
  • Posts: 8277
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
Thanked by
djtehch34t
October 30th, 2019 at 11:38:49 AM permalink
Vultering is not a word.
I am a robot.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1491
  • Posts: 26435
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
October 30th, 2019 at 12:57:16 PM permalink
That's true that I didn't consider the wheel progressive. The machine I took pictures of at the Four Queens had a fixed jackpot at $10,000.

Thank you for all comments.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
bigfoot66
bigfoot66
  • Threads: 54
  • Posts: 1582
Joined: Feb 5, 2010
October 30th, 2019 at 1:57:28 PM permalink
I get a similar return. I would also exercise great caution with these. I once spent 12 hours and damn near 5 figures trying to catch a Mega at $2.40. I added 170+ to the meter.
Vote for Nobody 2020!
tringlomane
tringlomane
  • Threads: 8
  • Posts: 6281
Joined: Aug 25, 2012
October 30th, 2019 at 3:04:42 PM permalink
Quote: PokerGrinder

I agree, I had adjusted my starting numbers drastically. I was only playing when mini was 55 or something like that.



I dunno if I've ever seen the mini that high. I never looked very seriously though.
PokerGrinder
PokerGrinder
  • Threads: 26
  • Posts: 5013
Joined: Apr 30, 2015
October 30th, 2019 at 4:05:33 PM permalink
Chasing a mega? Lol good luck with that. In all my play I only hit the mega 2 or 3 times.
You can shear a sheep a hundred times, but you can skin it only once. — Amarillo Slim Preston
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1491
  • Posts: 26435
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
October 30th, 2019 at 4:25:07 PM permalink
Quote: PokerGrinder

Chasing a mega? Lol good luck with that. In all my play I only hit the mega 2 or 3 times.



When I was taking pictures for my article my friend was chasing the Mega. I eventually got bored of watching him and said "good night." He texted me about 15 minutes later, saying he hit it, for a $500+ win. However, I think he sank about $300 into the game before hitting it.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Rigondeaux
Rigondeaux
  • Threads: 30
  • Posts: 2549
Joined: Aug 18, 2014
October 30th, 2019 at 4:35:07 PM permalink
Shortly after they reduced the pay, I spotted one while with some out of town friends. A great chance to show off how sharp I am.

They awkwardly peeled off one by one as I got buried alive.
PokerGrinder
PokerGrinder
  • Threads: 26
  • Posts: 5013
Joined: Apr 30, 2015
October 30th, 2019 at 4:39:30 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

When I was taking pictures for my article my friend was chasing the Mega. I eventually got bored of watching him and said "good night." He texted me about 15 minutes later, saying he hit it, for a $500+ win. However, I think he sank about $300 into the game before hitting it.


An outlier, ask DJATC about the one time he chased a mega lol. I think he lost almost 2k.
You can shear a sheep a hundred times, but you can skin it only once. — Amarillo Slim Preston
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
  • Threads: 164
  • Posts: 22272
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
October 30th, 2019 at 5:45:10 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

When I was taking pictures for my article my friend was chasing the Mega. I eventually got bored of watching him and said "good night." He texted me about 15 minutes later, saying he hit it, for a $500+ win. However, I think he sank about $300 into the game before hitting it.

So after loseing a bunch of mony
and AFTER you left your friend just happened to have a $500 run up.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1491
  • Posts: 26435
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
Thanked by
beachbumbabs
October 30th, 2019 at 6:31:55 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

So after loseing a bunch of mony
and AFTER you left your friend just happened to have a $500 run up.



That's my story and I'm sticking to it.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
smurgerburger
smurgerburger
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 56
Joined: Aug 1, 2018
October 31st, 2019 at 5:09:48 PM permalink
What's this about the reduced pay? Did they release a HD 2.0 that has a different a way of distributing its payback? (For example more on the base game, less in the free games).
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
  • Threads: 80
  • Posts: 7237
Joined: Mar 11, 2010
October 31st, 2019 at 7:42:06 PM permalink
More like its the same split, but with a longer bonus interval. So more cost in time and money to get the bonus, but then a bigger payout (or, at least, more spins) once you're in.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
  • Threads: 164
  • Posts: 22272
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
November 1st, 2019 at 1:15:19 AM permalink
Quote: rdw4potus

More like its the same split, but with a longer bonus interval. So more cost in time and money to get the bonus, but then a bigger payout (or, at least, more spins) once you're in.

At the beginning I couldn't help but win at Harley-Davidsons whenever I played them. Then suddenly I couldn't win at all. At first I thought something had changed for sure but I resisted that thinking and just chalked it up to confirmation bias or whatever you want to call it. Once multiple people started reporting the same experience I figured my gut feelings were correct.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
100xOdds
100xOdds
  • Threads: 638
  • Posts: 4256
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
November 2nd, 2019 at 12:54:53 PM permalink
duplicate
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
100xOdds
100xOdds
  • Threads: 638
  • Posts: 4256
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
November 2nd, 2019 at 12:59:23 PM permalink
Quote: rdw4potus

More like its the same split, but with a longer bonus interval. So more cost in time and money to get the bonus, but then a bigger payout (or, at least, more spins) once you're in.

bigger payout on the bonus?

i usually get 'free games x bet level (rounded up)' as my return.
so 50 games x 1.60 level would return $100 or less. (usually less)

are the payouts from your new version games much bigger?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
Mission146
Mission146
  • Threads: 142
  • Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
November 2nd, 2019 at 2:31:15 PM permalink
I’ve seen Mini go over a hundred, once. I wasn’t the one playing and not anyone I knew, I was first waiting to see if they’d tap out...when I realized they wouldn’t, I just watched out of morbid curiosity.

The change could also be a high variance event like making wheel bonus more likely or increasing the overall probability of the jackpot. Do that, take some of the red HD symbols away and, there you go, everyone getting killed in a way that’s hard to notice.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
100xOdds
100xOdds
  • Threads: 638
  • Posts: 4256
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
November 2nd, 2019 at 2:50:23 PM permalink
Quote: bigfoot66

I get a similar return. I would also exercise great caution with these. I once spent 12 hours and damn near 5 figures trying to catch a Mega at $2.40. I added 170+ to the meter.


$10k+ to hit the mega?
how much did you lose?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
  • Threads: 80
  • Posts: 7237
Joined: Mar 11, 2010
November 2nd, 2019 at 4:14:40 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

bigger payout on the bonus?

i usually get 'free games x bet level (rounded up)' as my return.
so 50 games x 1.60 level would return $100 or less. (usually less)

are the payouts from your new version games much bigger?



Yep, that's the rule of thumb here too. But the number of games when the bonus is hit is higher now than it used to be so the product is higher, too.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
WBGamble
WBGamble
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 40
Joined: Jul 10, 2014
November 3rd, 2019 at 12:11:46 AM permalink
I had a mini run all the way to 117. Took it at 42. I think I hit 5 maxis during the time. Thankfully it was only on .80! I've done pretty well on the game, a bit sad to see it disappearing.
James85
James85
  • Threads: 7
  • Posts: 21
Joined: Nov 8, 2014
December 8th, 2019 at 10:06:41 PM permalink
Quote:



In my gradual series on vulteralbe slots, my next one is looking like Harley Davidson.

For those who don't know what "vulterable" means, it is kind of like a progressive, where the return of a game will depend on factors left by the previous player. In the industry, they are called "variable state" games. Some players, who know about such games, are known to only play when such games are in a high enough state for the expected return to be over 100%. Thus, they are compared to vultures, looking for a nice peace of meat left by the previous player.

For those who did know about the play, it has been known for a while so I would say it isn't any big secret.

In the case of Harley Davidson, there are symbols on reel 5 that if the game stops on them anywhere on the screen, it feeds a free game into one of the bonus meters. When the player gets two scatters and such a symbol, then he gets to play the free spin bonus with as many free spins as in the meter at the table. If the previous player left enough free spins in the meters, it is a good time to swoop in and play.

As an example, in the picture at the top, there are 23 free spins in the Mini meter, 30 in the Maxi meter, and 97 in the Mega meter.

So, "When is it good enough to play?," you may ask. (Do I put the comma inside or outside the parenthesis?)

This has previously been analyzed by a source who shall remain nameless and his work shared with me with permission to write about.

After a lot of math, the return of the game is estimated to be 80.18% + 0.39% * Mini + 0.25% * Maxi + 0.09% * Mega.

In the case of the photo above, the return would be 0.8018 + 0.0039 * 23 + 0.0025 * 30 + 0.0009 * 97 = 105.38%. So, that would definitely be playable.

The question for the poll is what are your thoughts on Harley Davidson?




// In the case of the photo above, the return would be 0.8018 + 0.0039 * 23 + 0.0025 * 30 + 0.0009 * 97 = 105.38%. So, that would definitely be playable. //

What do you think the amount of bank roll would be required for this machine?
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
  • Threads: 80
  • Posts: 7237
Joined: Mar 11, 2010
December 9th, 2019 at 3:32:18 PM permalink
Quote: James85

// In the case of the photo above, the return would be 0.8018 + 0.0039 * 23 + 0.0025 * 30 + 0.0009 * 97 = 105.38%. So, that would definitely be playable. //

What do you think the amount of bank roll would be required for this machine?



I usually figure 200 times the bet. Just have to hope the mega or maxi hits before the mini. The play ends when the mini is hit.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
Mission146
Mission146
  • Threads: 142
  • Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
Thanked by
prozema
December 9th, 2019 at 5:00:51 PM permalink
Quote: rdw4potus

I usually figure 200 times the bet. Just have to hope the mega or maxi hits before the mini. The play ends when the mini is hit.



Insufficient funds!!!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
James85
James85
  • Threads: 7
  • Posts: 21
Joined: Nov 8, 2014
December 9th, 2019 at 6:47:52 PM permalink
$200???
Mission146
Mission146
  • Threads: 142
  • Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
December 9th, 2019 at 7:04:48 PM permalink
200x the lowest bet amount would be $160 on an $0.80 bet, not $200. I would consider $200 also insufficient.

Fortunately, I was only on it one of the two times, but I have seen two occasions where an $0.80 Harley bet on the Mini has taken over $200 cash to hit. Certainly not typical (or the play point would be a lot higher) but not out of the question. Definitely stuck in a second C-Note several times.

And, remember, if it chews through $200 once, it can do it again immediately after. With that said, I think $500 on the $0.80 bet would almost always be safe. Probably not always, but 99% of the time.

Anecdotally, I heard someone say they dropped almost three grand on a $4.00 bet going after a Mini, but I did not see it and there was no proof of the loss amount. Either way, that's well over 200x the bet amount.

I also think the potential downside on the Minis ($$$) significantly outweighs the potential upside unless you go crazy on something unrelated like wheel spins, or hitting some other bonus you weren't going for first. I think on a, "Good," play you'll profit more often than not, but you can also have some extremely bad results.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
prozema
prozema
  • Threads: 24
  • Posts: 1194
Joined: Oct 24, 2016
December 9th, 2019 at 7:53:03 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

200x the lowest bet amount would be $160 on an $0.80 bet, not $200. I would consider $200 also insufficient.

Fortunately, I was only on it one of the two times, but I have seen two occasions where an $0.80 Harley bet on the Mini has taken over $200 cash to hit. Certainly not typical (or the play point would be a lot higher) but not out of the question. Definitely stuck in a second C-Note several times.

And, remember, if it chews through $200 once, it can do it again immediately after. With that said, I think $500 on the $0.80 bet would almost always be safe. Probably not always, but 99% of the time.

Anecdotally, I heard someone say they dropped almost three grand on a $4.00 bet going after a Mini, but I did not see it and there was no proof of the loss amount. Either way, that's well over 200x the bet amount.

I also think the potential downside on the Minis ($$$) significantly outweighs the potential upside unless you go crazy on something unrelated like wheel spins, or hitting some other bonus you weren't going for first. I think on a, "Good," play you'll profit more often than not, but you can also have some extremely bad results.



I think $2K works most of the time if you don't chase megas. $2K might be a little dicey on a max bet maxi.
  • Jump to: