DRich
DRich
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July 17th, 2019 at 10:04:41 AM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Any figures on par-3 tee shots at these events? Assuming 2,500-1 for pros is a good figure, does 80,000 smell right?



I would guess around 1500 a week. 125 golfers x 4 par 3's x 2 days + 65 golfers x 4 par 3's x 2 days


I think the PGA tour probably averages close to one hole in one per week.
Living longer does not always infer +EV
SOOPOO
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July 17th, 2019 at 1:21:48 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

I would guess around 1500 a week. 125 golfers x 4 par 3's x 2 days + 65 golfers x 4 par 3's x 2 days


I think the PGA tour probably averages close to one hole in one per week.



Most events I think allow 144 to start, and average over 70 for the last two rounds. Plus there are weeks (majors, and World Golf Championship event weeks) that there are two separate events that count as PGA tour events. Plus nowadays most courses have a par 4 that the pros can reach the green in one shot adding another tiny chance for a hole in one.
My guesstimate for myself is that I've played 6000 par 3 shots, so my two put me on the plus side of variance for sure.
tringlomane
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July 19th, 2019 at 12:09:57 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

I would guess around 1500 a week. 125 golfers x 4 par 3's x 2 days + 65 golfers x 4 par 3's x 2 days


I think the PGA tour probably averages close to one hole in one per week.



This is close I'd say. 1 in 1000 seems like close to PGA tour pro odds.
Wizard
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Wizard
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July 19th, 2019 at 5:11:41 AM permalink
Here are the odds per Golf Digest:



Source: https://www.golfdigest.com/story/want-to-know-your-odds-for-a-hole-in-one-well-here-they-are.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
DogHand
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July 19th, 2019 at 6:27:33 AM permalink
The "1 in 73" odds for 2 aces in 1 tournament cannot be right... The author must have left off a "million" or so.

Dog Hand
unJon
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July 19th, 2019 at 8:32:43 AM permalink
Quote: DogHand

The "1 in 73" odds for 2 aces in 1 tournament cannot be right... The author must have left off a "million" or so.

Dog Hand

Two aces but not by the same person. How many golphers per tournament? How many rounds of golf per torunament?
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
DRich
DRich
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July 19th, 2019 at 9:51:34 AM permalink
Quote: DogHand

The "1 in 73" odds for 2 aces in 1 tournament cannot be right... The author must have left off a "million" or so.

Dog Hand



I would have guessed lower if we are talking about professional golfers. There is an average of about one hole in one per week on the PGA tour. There was one yesterday at the British Open and it was the first day.
Living longer does not always infer +EV
Wizard
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Wizard
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July 19th, 2019 at 5:34:20 PM permalink
Quote: DHass22

According to a Golf Digest article, the odds of and average golfer, hitting a hole in one, is 12,500 to 1.

In a foursome, the odds of 2 golfers getting a hole in one, on the same hole, is 26,000,000 to 1.

Based on this information, or lack thereof, What are the odds of 3 or all 4 golfers ace'ing the same hole?

Thanks!



Let me reword the statistics from Golf Digest to make their math work:

The odds of an amateur making a hole in one on a specific hole are 1 in 12,000.

The odds of two out of four amateurs making a hole in one on a given hole are 1 in 26,000,000.

Under this line of thought, here are my probabilities for 3 or 4 players acing the same hole in a round:

3 players: 1 in 488,281,250,000
4 players: 1 in 24,414,062,500,000,000

Quote: ThatDonGuy

The probability of three = (the probability of one player getting a hole in one) cubed x (the probability that one player does not) x (the number of ways to get three in a foursome)
= (1 / 12,500)3 x (12,499 / 12,500) x 4 = about 1 in 488 billion

The probability of four = (1 / 12,500)4 = about 1 in 24.4 quadrillion



Glad we agree.
Last edited by: Wizard on Jul 19, 2019
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
onenickelmiracle
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July 19th, 2019 at 10:31:55 PM permalink
I had a thread mentioning a major hole-in-one insurer which was sued and prosecuted for fraud iirc. What a wonderful business to have.
In the land of the blind, the man with one eye is the care taker. Hold my beer.
Ayecarumba
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July 22nd, 2019 at 4:00:29 PM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

I had a thread mentioning a major hole-in-one insurer which was sued and prosecuted for fraud iirc. What a wonderful business to have.



I recall a similar situation where an insurer for these type of "lightning strike" promotions refused to pay a guy who hit a hockey puck through a small hole in a piece of plywood across the goal mouth. I think they said he stepped over the line that he was supposed to be all the way behind when he made the shot.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci

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