Poll

6 votes (30%)
2 votes (10%)
8 votes (40%)
4 votes (20%)
8 votes (40%)
6 votes (30%)
2 votes (10%)
3 votes (15%)
4 votes (20%)
4 votes (20%)

20 members have voted

beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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February 16th, 2017 at 10:46:37 AM permalink
Quote: Paradigm

We apologize for our technical difficulties....somehow the "Trumps First 100 Days" & this thread's "wires got crossed"...now back to the betting ;-)



Sorry about that. I was articulating my reasons for setting my odds and got carried away. Still +300 without counter-argument so far.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Paradigm
Paradigm
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February 16th, 2017 at 11:17:07 AM permalink
Yeah, I just don't think +300 for a "NO" on Trump's re-election makes much sense. Wiz and everyone here seem to think this is the most likely outcome after Trump's first term. Normally the favorite/"most likely" outcome isn't priced at +300.
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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February 16th, 2017 at 11:40:59 AM permalink
Quote: Paradigm

Yeah, I just don't think +300 for a "NO" on Trump's re-election makes much sense. Wiz and everyone here seem to think this is the most likely outcome after Trump's first term. Normally the favorite/"most likely" outcome isn't priced at +300.



They may drag him kicking and screaming from the White House, but he will fight so hard he'll leave fingernails in the colonnades. He won't resign.

There won't be a Democratic Senate until 2020, if then, so impeachment will get a lot of discussion, but McConnell won't let it go forward (his price was his wife in the Cabinet ). It's an enormous task that would take years even if it got started. It took 900 days to investigate and hold hearings to impeach Nixon, ending with his resignation just prior to the obvious. Clinton was impeached and censured, but still finished his term, after years of allegations and investigation.

Some people like him and what he's doing; his support is solidly in the 40's and rising according to two polls released yesterday. It doesn't take much more, especially if the opposition is still fragmented.

And, as I detailed earlier, history is heavily on his side for re-election. Will he make it thru a second term? Not a chance. But things are in his favor right now to get a second term.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Gandler
Gandler
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February 16th, 2017 at 12:15:07 PM permalink
Everyone on here said Trump had virtually no chance of winning the Presidency citing all of the betting odds that Hillary was the certain winner. (the same thing happened with Hillary and Obama).

People underestimate populism. Trump is angering a lot of people, but he is inspiring many loyal supporters. The same people here who are saying he has no chance of re-election are the same ones who not that long ago scoffed at those of us who were certain he would be the next President, citing numbers instead of the flow of the country.

All it will take is some good economic turnarounds and Trump will be hailed as a hero. So far he has accomplished a lot, and he has the chance to accomplish more once the supreme court is on his side.


All I know is 6 months ago everyone on here was mocking those of us who were certain of a Trump Presidency, and they are now the same ones who are scoffing at his re-election. Again, we will see. I think America is on the rise, and as it booms with Trump his re-election will be more certain than ever.

As for betting, I would bet on a second term, but I refuse to bet on politics, because if a better candidate comes along I do not want to vote against my own interests.
"Whatever is my right as a man is also the right of another; and it becomes my duty to guarantee as well as to possess.” -Thomas Paine
Rigondeaux
Rigondeaux 
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February 16th, 2017 at 1:30:10 PM permalink
He was a huge dog. Sometimes huge dogs hit, or else we'd all be rich.

I agree with Babs that Franken is probably a strong option, though I don't know how old he is. Trump was unpopular from day one, and remains so. He happened to run into a person who was almost as unpopular as he is, who also ran an unimaginably bad campaign.

On the other hand, he is somewhat insulated from criticism because the media have already discredited themselves so deeply, and will continue to do so. I think a lot of the hysteria about Trump, comparing him to Hitler or David Duke, helps him

On the third hand, after blocking TPP, Trump is turning around on economic populism. Removing regulations on banks, anti-corruption laws for oil companies, surrounding himself with Goldman Sachs people. More than anything, his supporters are expecting him to stand up for their economic interests.

Also, there are reports Trump hates his job. One reason I bet against him in the primaries was I wasn't sure he even wanted it.

It will depend on how determined the Dems are to lose. With the exception of Obama (who they didn't even want initially, as he forestalled their dream of losing with Hillary) their commitment to losing at every level has been relentless for years.
djatc
djatc
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February 16th, 2017 at 2:52:16 PM permalink
From Paddypower:

WILL TRUMP COMPLETE HIS 1ST TERM IN OFFICE?

YES 1/2 (-200)

NO 6/4 (+150)

I want YES. Can anyone beat -200?

Some more likely bets to happen:

Trump to announce that aliens lifeforms exist 20/1
AN AMERICAN STATE TO DECLARE INDEPENDENCE IN 2017
Yes 20/1
WHAT WILL TRUMP BAN DURING HIS 1ST TERM
Stairs 500/1
WILL TRUMP LEGALISE GAMBLING IN HIS 1ST TERM?|
Yes 20/1
WHICH LEADER LASTS LONGER - JONG-UN OR TRUMP
Kim Jong-un 4/11
Donald Trump 17/10
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
RS
RS
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February 16th, 2017 at 3:06:03 PM permalink
Stairs should be banned.
# Свободный Натан
djatc
djatc
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February 16th, 2017 at 3:46:57 PM permalink
Quote: RS

Stairs should be banned.



Ban Stairs

Unban online gambling

Make America great again
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
beachbumbabs
Administrator
beachbumbabs
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February 16th, 2017 at 4:17:38 PM permalink
Quote: Rigondeaux

He was a huge dog. Sometimes huge dogs hit, or else we'd all be rich.

I agree with Babs that Franken is probably a strong option, though I don't know how old he is.



He's 65 now. Born in NYC, moved to Minnesota when he was 4. Grew up there, started in Mpls comedy and improv clubs, then LA and NYC, starting in the early 70's. Moved back around 2005. Got into politics directly because of the death of Sen. Paul Wellstone in a regrettable, preventable plane crash (sidebar discussion), his good friend and possibly mentor.

Snip.


Quote:

On the other hand, he is somewhat insulated from criticism because the media have already discredited themselves so deeply, and will continue to do so. I think a lot of the hysteria about Trump, comparing him to Hitler or David Duke, helps him



I have to disagree with you about the media being discredited. The vast majority of media reporting has been first-hand. Negative reports have nearly always been self-inflicted wounds, with his minions scrambling to translate and clean up after him. They don't have to make anything up; he's been a gold mine of lies and contradictory statements.

He would LIKE the media to be discredited, and does everything in his power, through constant repetition and favoring those he thinks favor him, in question acceptance and granting of interviews. There are people who agree with him about the bias.

But the reporting has been carefully fact-based. It must be separated from opinion pieces and spin from all sides, which requires discernment and knowledge from the public; they've made that part much harder, with the blurring of news and commentary to reflect corporate news viewpoints. But the facts can be identified with patience.
Quote:


On the third hand, after blocking TPP, Trump is turning around on economic populism. Removing regulations on banks, anti-corruption laws for oil companies, surrounding himself with Goldman Sachs people. More than anything, his supporters are expecting him to stand up for their economic interests.



This is a great danger for him, servicing the banks, the rich, and corporate interests at the expense of the workers that put him into office. I think they're going to look around in about 6 months, with inflation, gas prices, mortgage interest rates all rising, consumer protections stripped, health insurance disrupted, continued job stagnation, income tax increase, medicare and social security threatened, and say, we've been had. Maybe they'll give him a year. But not much more: he's throwing things out of balance that needed to be supported with steady patience.

Quote:

Also, there are reports Trump hates his job. One reason I bet against him in the primaries was I wasn't sure he even wanted it.



I agree with you; I don't think he does like it. I don't think he really wanted it; I think he got caught up in the ego trip, but he's not there to serve anyone but himself. And it is about service; the President works for us.

Trump doesn't have any concept about governing; he thought it was about the most superficial stuff, like press conferences, public announcements, situation room drama, state dinners, being the decider guy after everybody else does the hard work gathering, distilling, writing and presenting one issue after the next. He's a second-hander, intellectually speaking: he doesn't care about background, context, complexity, or consequences. He doesn't do the homework.

The exaggeration of the size of his win today was a perfect example. He claimed it was the biggest EC win since Reagan. A reporter challenged him, starting with Obama numbers (which were larger). He said I meant Republicans. The reporter said HW had over 400 EC votes. Trump said, well, somebody told me that. I don't know; I was told that. (Why did he say it if it wasnt true?? Another unforced error. He was speaking from notes; he seems to have planned to say this)

The reporter's actual question (the EC fact check was the intro) was talked over by Trump arguing the numbers, but it was, "if you don't give us accurate and honest info on things as basic as this, how is the public supposed to trust what you say..." . He got cut off, then that part ignored. That ESSENTIAL question never got addressed.

The really odd thing is that he's said this before, several times since the election, it was incorrect, and NOBODY on his staff corrected him all those times. What the hell are they doing, letting him say something ignorant repeatedly?

This was just one episode in dozens, but illustrates very well how he thinks, what he says, and how he deflects. It's frightening the size and scope of the bubble he's living in. Made much worse by who he's surrounded himself with.

Quote:

It will depend on how determined the Dems are to lose. With the exception of Obama (who they didn't even want initially, as he forestalled their dream of losing with Hillary) their commitment to losing at every level has been relentless for years.



Dems have a weird sense of propriety about whose "turn" it is. However, Bernie was in fact a Democrat by convenience, not temperament. I think joining the party just to run was a bit disingenuous, after decades as an Independent. As bad as Trump is, Bernie would have been worse policy wise, though I don't think he's the compulsive liar Trump is.

I worked for Obama 2012 for over a year. I did that because of my anger over voter registration shenanigans in Florida, and the csmpaign and the NAACP were the only 2 doing registrations, with the governor working hard to restrict it and disenfranchise targeted groups. Too hard for the League of Women Voters, the DMV, the other usual agencies to navigate the roadblock regulations. Most of my work concentrated on that aspect, coloring within the lines under heavy scrutiny.

The Hillary 2016 campaign begged me numerous times to come back and work, offering a paid position, anything i wanted to do. I didn't go. That alone should indicate how much I supported her as a candidate (reluctantly). She was still a better choice than Trump on policy, but that doesn't matter any more. Gore was awful. Kerry was awful. I don't know who would have been better, but GWB was a disaster, enough so that he's been disowned by his own party, not just the opposition.

Edit: I suppose I've wandered off course again, but all this stuff is relevant to setting odds on a bet like this, at least to me. Interesting that djatc shows Paddy power agrees the NO is a dog. I just think their odds are too low.
Last edited by: beachbumbabs on Feb 16, 2017
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Paradigm
Paradigm
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February 16th, 2017 at 4:31:56 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

And, as I detailed earlier, history is heavily on his side for re-election. Will he make it thru a second term? Not a chance. But things are in his favor right now to get a second term.


"not a chance" odds are at least 14-1, given that a Safety in the SB, which "has a chance", goes off at around 7-1. What you are offering on the "Yes - Trump is re-elected and serves his complete second term"....remember, there is not a chance this happens so this will be easy money for you.

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