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MrV
MrV
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December 22nd, 2015 at 5:38:01 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Yeah, I understand that the STA bets have these huge house edges. But I'm up about $7,000 playing craps at Bellagio over just three trips. Oh, that doesn't include the $31,005 progressive royal. That photo is on my forum.

Happy holidays.



Merry Variance.
"What, me worry?"
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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December 22nd, 2015 at 6:38:24 PM permalink
Of course it is all variance, but it's a funny kind of variance. Never had more than three passes on those "ALL" bets that I won. And the first time I made the "ALL" I had only one pass. In fact, I never had more than 3 passes at Bellagio in a single turn with the dice -- that means I would never have even had a 4-point FireBet winner if they had the FireBet there. Gotta love that variance.
BiloxiBill
BiloxiBill
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January 2nd, 2016 at 9:37:32 PM permalink
To answer your question: YES, the mathematical proof is that the dealer hands you the dice to throw. If you want an answer of NO, then you would never throw the dice.

What your asking is analogous to throwing paper airplanes in a hurricane. Can you predict where it will land and how far on EACH throw? NO, but a skilled paper airplane maker with practice in throwing them in Hurricanes can get a better average BUT he won't be able to tell you on the NEXT throw it will be good, or even on the NEXT 10 throws it will be good. He could tell you on AVERAGE, he throws better than less skilled throwers.

SO the problem isn't with HIS throws, it's with you trying to take advantage of his throws. For you to enjoy his better AVERAGE you will need to be with him every time he throws the dice over time. Not practicable, possible but not practicable. So the only advantage will be to him and no one else, maybe his wife but she probably lost his advantage in the slots. :P

EDIT: Will his advantage matter? Maybe, Maybe not. If he can break the statistical variance, yes. If not, no. But he still has a better advantage mathematically it just won't matter in the betting odds.

The problem with a real world test is that everything is not always equal. The dice will sometimes hit chips that are there one moment and gone the next, etc..., etc...

I'd say don't worry about HOW someone is shooting the dice but just look for the trends, they are apparent. In craps the come out throw forces you to follow a 7/11 trend. Ironically in Roulette people bet against the trends ever since they introduced those electronic boards. Genius on the casino's part. Trends don't change the odds however, it's just that trends happen. Craps just forces you to catch them because of the Come Out Roll unless you stop playing at the wrong moment. So if you're 'lucky' you'll catch one toward the end of your session.
Last edited by: BiloxiBill on Jan 2, 2016
starpower
starpower
Joined: Dec 29, 2015
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Thanks for this post from:
GlenG
April 6th, 2016 at 2:10:33 AM permalink
I think dice control is idiotic.
dicesitter
dicesitter
Joined: Jan 17, 2013
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April 8th, 2016 at 8:28:03 AM permalink
BiloxiBill





Best post I have ever seen on this board..... none even come close.

Thank you


dicesetter
Wizardofnothing
Wizardofnothing
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April 8th, 2016 at 8:45:06 AM permalink
I'm willing to say that even if I was with you on every single throw that the results would not be better then any normal thrower.

The paper airplane is not a good analogy at all, for oh so many reasons
No longer hiring, donít ask because I wonít hire you either
MrV
MrV
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April 8th, 2016 at 11:54:28 AM permalink
Quote: BiloxiBill

a skilled paper airplane maker with practice in throwing them in Hurricanes can get a better average BUT he won't be able to tell you on the NEXT throw it will be good, or even on the NEXT 10 throws it will be good. He could tell you on AVERAGE, he throws better than less skilled throwers...SO the problem isn't with HIS throws, it's with you trying to take advantage of his throws.



Oops, big gap in logic there.

Your argument presupposes that it is axiomatic that "a skilled paper airplane maker with practice in throwing them in Hurricanes can get a better average" when in fact such a thing is not accepted as fact at all.

Seriously, you think people can develop skill at throwing paper airplanes during a hurricane?

You'd have better luck herding cats.
"What, me worry?"
Wizardofnothing
Wizardofnothing
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April 8th, 2016 at 11:58:02 AM permalink
First time I laughed all day
No longer hiring, donít ask because I wonít hire you either
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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April 8th, 2016 at 1:26:50 PM permalink
Quote: MrV

Oops, big gap in logic there.

Your argument presupposes that it is axiomatic that "a skilled paper airplane maker with practice in throwing them in Hurricanes can get a better average" when in fact such a thing is not accepted as fact at all.

Seriously, you think people can develop skill at throwing paper airplanes during a hurricane?

You'd have better luck herding cats.

Actually ..... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pk7yqlTMvp8
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
RS
RS
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
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April 8th, 2016 at 1:35:18 PM permalink
I am a skilled paper airplane maker and have practice throwing them in hurricanes.

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