thecesspit
thecesspit
Joined: Apr 19, 2010
  • Threads: 53
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May 21st, 2011 at 3:28:48 PM permalink
Quote: SanchoPanza

Not if the resolution is a win for the player.



At that point, the expected value becomes an actual value...
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
SanchoPanza
SanchoPanza
Joined: May 10, 2010
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May 21st, 2011 at 3:48:49 PM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

At that point, the expected value becomes an actual value...


Isn't it quite a bit more? Because in calculating expected value, isn't the likelihood or unlikelihood of a loss is factored in?
thecesspit
thecesspit
Joined: Apr 19, 2010
  • Threads: 53
  • Posts: 5936
May 22nd, 2011 at 12:32:11 AM permalink
Quote: SanchoPanza

Isn't it quite a bit more? Because in calculating expected value, isn't the likelihood or unlikelihood of a loss is factored in?



That's sort of what I mean. The EV resolves into an actual value, which in a game with two out comes has two values. One a loss, and one a win. There is no expected value, there's just an actual payment.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829

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