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WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
Joined: May 20, 2011
  • Threads: 81
  • Posts: 1121
April 3rd, 2018 at 12:28:24 PM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

Im not a dont player typically, but every now and then if I dealers tell me the table is ice cold and I see people losing their as%$#, I will lay either the 4 or 10.. I typically like the 10 for some reason. I lay the 10 and play the dont pass. Those times Ive played that way have always worked out. They were hit n run of course.



Just reminded myself about a time I played over 10 years ago. I was losing badly (because I didn't hit n run back then)... everyone was making about 2 to 3 box numbers then 7 out every roll. So I was down to my last 50 bucks after losing about 8K quickly. So I played the no 10. It won over and over and over and over... etc. I kept power pressing the winnings. In no time , I had 3500. I left the table and went to BJ and put it all on one hand. I was dealt 6,5 against the dealer 6. Of course this all looked too perfect but I still asked a buddy with me to lend me what he had. He only had 1500 on him. He lent it to me and I doubled down. Dealer flips a 3 for me and I was sitting on 14. Dealer has the six, pulls over a 9, then and ace, then a 4 for total 20. I never played BJ again.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 15
June 16th, 2018 at 12:34:36 AM permalink
Since about half of 7-outs occur during 1st 4 rolls, maybe just lay bet for the first 4 rolls after the point is established then turn it off until after the next come-out roll. Maybe shooters are luckier with the 7's on the come-outs, but they are just as unlucky with their P7O's.
I'm working on a progression for the No 9 (or No 5): $75, $90, $105, $120, $120, $135, $150, $210, $270, $330, then down. So I'll get $1000+ on 10 wins in a row. I could also lose $1000+ if my number gets hit 14 times in a row. Maybe the dice like to hit my number right before a 7. Do I put a new bet up in time or not?
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
  • Threads: 22
  • Posts: 2268
June 16th, 2018 at 7:28:26 AM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

Since about half of 7-outs occur during 1st 4 rolls,

this page
https://www.wizardofodds.com/games/craps/number-of-rolls/

shows that 49.72% is the chance for any shooter to make that 7th roll in their hand.
that means 50.28% (1266739/2519424)
is the chance they have 7nd-out by and including the 6th roll (includes the come out roll)

57.61% is the chance for any shooter to make that 6th roll in their hand.
that means 42.39% is the chance they have 7nd-out by and including the 5th roll (includes the come out roll)

my worksheet for the math for the length of a shooters hand can be
found here
https://sites.google.com/view/krapstuff/games/craps

I love making Lay bets
especially on the come out roll
fun to challenge every shooter to roll 'any 7'
does not matter which 7 (witch?)

Sally
Last edited by: mustangsally on Jun 16, 2018
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