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goatcabin
goatcabin
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March 14th, 2015 at 10:39:37 AM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

3/4/5x odds, $2000 bankroll
win goal = ~$2000 (approx. double your $)

Strategy:
- Single Pass or Don't Pass bet with max odds, risking ~$100 total each time. (so you have a 20x bankroll.)
Pass: Flat = $20, odds = $80 ($100 total)
Don't pass: Flat = $15, odds = $90 ($105 total)

- Use 40% of winnings to press after each win
- Go back to risking ~$100 total if you lose.


For simplicity sake, the avg point is a 5/9.



For $20 pass, 3, 4, 5x, average bet is $75.56, ev per bet -$.2828.
For $15 DP, 3, 4, 5x, average bet is $76.71, ev per bet -$.2104.

So, you are starting out with a disadvantage on the pass, because you are subjecting 33% more to the HA.
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
mustangsally
mustangsally
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March 14th, 2015 at 12:08:50 PM permalink
Quote: goatcabin

For $20 pass, 3, 4, 5x, average bet is $75.56, ev per bet -$.2828.

well
20 * 1/3
80 * 1/6
100 * 2/9
120 * 5/18
add up = 75 5/9

ev = -7/495 * 20 = -140/495

checks out

what is this about again?
oh, yes

estimates to double a bankroll

by pressing something 40% after a winnnnnnnnnnnn
Quote: goatcabin

For $15 DP, 3, 4, 5x, average bet is $76.71, <snip>

huh?
how you get $76.71?

15 * 1/3 = 15/3 = 5
105 * 2/3 = 210/3 = 70
5 + 70 = 75
Hmmm, did not get it that way

15 dpass with 4x odds = 75 avg bet
not that way either

ev = -3/220 * 15 = -45/220

okok
Sally
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goatcabin
goatcabin
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March 14th, 2015 at 1:43:54 PM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

well


by pressing something 40% after a winnnnnnnnnnnn
huh?
how you get $76.71?

15 * 1/3 = 15/3 = 5
105 * 2/3 = 210/3 = 70
5 + 70 = 75
Hmmm, did not get it that way

15 dpass with 4x odds = 75 avg bet
not that way either



Since I don't count the push in the bet handle, the weighted average is pushed toward the $35 amount.
Try:
( (605 X 15) + (1320 * 105) ) / 1320 = 76.71

That damn push is always confusing things, ain't it?
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
mustangsally
mustangsally
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March 14th, 2015 at 3:14:53 PM permalink
Quote: goatcabin

Since I don't count the push in the bet handle, the weighted average is pushed toward the $35 amount.
Try:
( (605 X 15) + (1320 * 105) ) / 1320 = 76.71

That damn push is always confusing things, ain't it?

ok
/ 1925 gets there

not counting a push as an event that happened
could be easier for some or more difficult for others

I do
count them as an event
as 100 pass line decisions produces how many don't pass decisions? (2 players at same table, one on pass the other on dpass)

and the expected loss for each would B...

Mully
I Heart Vi Hart
goatcabin
goatcabin
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March 14th, 2015 at 3:35:52 PM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

ok
/ 1925 gets there


Oops! OF course.

Quote: mustangsally

not counting a push as an event that happened
could be easier for some or more difficult for others

I do
count them as an event
as 100 pass line decisions produces how many don't pass decisions? (2 players at same table, one on pass the other on dpass)

and the expected loss for each would B...

Mully



For 1980 decisions, ev's are -27 units DP, -28 units pass. Divide by 1980, you get 1.36%, divide by 1925 1.40%. Who cares? ev's are important.
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
mustangsally
mustangsally
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March 14th, 2015 at 4:07:13 PM permalink
Quote: goatcabin

For 1980 decisions, ev's are -27 units DP, -28 units pass.
Divide by 1980, you get 1.36%, divide by 1925 1.40%. Who cares? ev's are important.

i think some will care
Alan Mendelson (he is on TV and has a nice speaking voice)
Frank Scoblete
Paul Rodgers
just to name a few off the top of me head

now

here in question form for you

#1) 100 pass line decisions produces how many don't pass decisions?
(2 players at same table, one on pass the other on dpass)

#2) the expected loss for each would B...? (same $15 flat bets)

thanks
for some reason I spell two as too
i know
Mully
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DanMahoney
DanMahoney
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March 14th, 2015 at 4:27:52 PM permalink
It appears that when all is said and done Sally is a good lay(er)
goatcabin
goatcabin
Joined: Feb 13, 2010
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March 14th, 2015 at 5:58:52 PM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

i think some will care
Alan Mendelson (he is on TV and has a nice speaking voice)


Alan is an idiot.
Quote: mustangsally


now

here in question form for you

#1) 100 pass line decisions produces how many don't pass decisions?


Depends on how many 12s, since I don't consider the push a decision.



Quote: mustangsally


#2) the expected loss for each would B...? (same $15 flat bets)


$21.04 for DP, $21.21 for pass.


Quote: mustangsally

for some reason I spell two as too



You have company, but most of the others do not know the difference between "two", "too" and "to".
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
beachbumbabs
Administrator
beachbumbabs
Joined: May 21, 2013
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March 14th, 2015 at 6:29:35 PM permalink
Quote: goatcabin

Alan is an idiot.



Personal insult; 3 days.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
mustangsally
mustangsally
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March 14th, 2015 at 6:43:41 PM permalink
Quote: goatcabin

Depends on how many 12s, since I don't consider the push a decision.

$21.04 for DP,

$21.21 for pass.

okay, the parameters for my questions were 2 players (Sally and Adam)
standing and playing at the same craps table

we know the pass line player (call her Sally) sees 100 win/lose decisions in 100 pass line decisions
so we both agree on the ev being a loss of
(7/495)*15*100 = 21.21

here is how i do the dpass because he (I call him Adam) played at the same table wit Sally
and saw the same 100 pass decisions
but still only bet the dpass

then they both cashed out and went to dinner, i was told, after the pass line 100th decision

(3/220)*15*100 = 20.45
i count the pushes

you did this
(27/1925)*15*100 = 21.039

but Adam did not see 100 win/lose dpass decisions
how many did he see?

well, there must be an average to work with
that is what i be after
is it
100 * (35/36) = 97 2/9

Mully
I Heart Vi Hart

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