Quote:mustangsallywhile you guys argue who's johnson is really bigger...

sure one can

i do that all the time

when out playing craps with friends

most me friends only bet $5 pass line and always take $10 odds even on a 345x table

(yes I agree, fools they are!)

I tell them they are trying to jinx the table by not taking max odds

i especially like adding to their bet (odds only)

(this happens at other casino games too)

when point = 4 or 10

bet $5 and they return to me $15 on a win

I tell them to thank me

because i caused the point to be won

by maxing out the odds

I am so lucky

sweet!

Sally

(Mully)

And if you friend didn't make the Pass line bet (the fee) could you have added your free bet?

Of course not.

He paid the fee for both of you.

Quote:FatGeezusAnd if you friend didn't make the Pass line bet (the fee) could you have added your free bet?

Of course not.

He paid the fee for both of you.

What point are you trying to make here? All the bets at the crap table (except the odds bets) carry a "fee", a built-in house advantage. The line bets have the lowest fee, except a buy bet under certain conditions.

If you make a line bet, you've paid the fee. The fee is the same whether you take/lay odds or not. Since the odds bets are paid "correctly", they have no associated fee. Many people say that taking odds reduces the house advantage, i.e. reduces the fee. I think this is misleading, because the expected loss does not change at all. The choice between taking/laying odds or not should not have anything to do with the fee, because it's there either way. Odds add variance without any additional expected loss, which is why they're referred to as "free odds"; I would call them "free variance", since the additional variance costs no extra.

Quote:FatGeezusAnd if you friend didn't make the Pass line bet (the fee) could you have added your free bet?

Of course not.

He paid the fee for both of you.

Setting aside the "fee" issue for a moment, let's discuss the effect(s) of odds bets.

The advantage of odds bets is that you get additional variance without additional expected loss.

Betting $5 on the pass line has very low variance, good for surviving at the table on a limited bankroll, but bad for your chances of winning, say, half your bankroll.

You can get more variance by betting $15 instead of $5, but you increase your expected loss and risk of ruin.

You can get more variance without additional expected loss by taking odds on your $5 bet.

If you bet $15, your expected loss is $.2121, or $12.72 for 60 bets, a couple of hours' play, standard deviation $116.18.

If you bet $5 and take double odds, your expected loss for the 60 bets is $4.24, SD $110.67.

So, you cut your "fee" by 67% and get almost as much variance. You actually are reducing the house's expected take, by betting less on the flat and more on the odds.

Each player has to decide whether he/she wants more variance, of course. It cuts both ways, but variance is what gives us a chance to win. In most cases, the casino charges a lot for high variance, for example the prop bets.

Quote:goatcabinQuote:FatGeezusAnd if you friend didn't make the Pass line bet (the fee) could you have added your free bet?

Of course not.

He paid the fee for both of you.

What point are you trying to make here? All the bets at the crap table (except the odds bets) carry a "fee", a built-in house advantage. The line bets have the lowest fee, except a buy bet under certain conditions.

If you make a line bet, you've paid the fee. The fee is the same whether you take/lay odds or not.

Since the odds bets are paid "correctly", they have no associated fee.

Many people say that taking odds reduces the house advantage, i.e. reduces the fee. I think this is misleading, because the expected loss does not change at all. The choice between taking/laying odds or not should not have anything to do with the fee, because it's there either way. Odds add variance without any additional expected loss, which is why they're referred to as "free odds"; I would call them "free variance", since the additional variance costs no extra.

The point that I am trying to make here is that the odds bet is not free. You do have to pay a fee to make the odds bet. It's called the line bet.

You even stated that once you make a line bet you have paid the fee. You now have the option to make an odds bet. I agree that you don't have to make a additional fee to make an odds bet.

IMO to say that the odds bet is free is wrong. You have to pay the fee (line bet) in order to make an odds bet.

I never said that you have to pay an additional fee to make an odds bet.

you must enjoy running simulationsQuote:goatcabin<snip> <snip>

For a 20-bet session, is there some amount of winnings that would satisfy you?

sometimes i do too

oh yes, with a $20 buy-in my win goal would be $300+ (it is ok to go past one time and I consider ruin with less than $5 in the rail {4,3,2,1,0}, but the 20 bet session max is set in stone, for now)

then i stop for dinner

you finish your data, and have fun with it, and i will show my calculated data from Excel

we can compare

remember i did ask a question

Sally

Quote:mustangsallyyou must enjoy running simulations

sometimes i do too

oh yes, with a $20 buy-in my win goal would be $300+ (it is ok to go past one time and I consider ruin with less than $5 in the rail {4,3,2,1,0}, but the 20 bet session max is set in stone, for now)

then i stop for dinner

Of course, with a flat $5 bet you'd have to win every bet to win $100, so the $300 win goal has no effect on that sim. I tried it with double odds, and TWICE in 100,000 sessions the bettor won $318. If you try more odds, you can't even make one bet with full odds on $20.

In order to win $300 in 20 bets from $20, you could just bet the whole $20 on the passline and parlay, having about a 6% chance of winning the first four and walking away with $320.

Quote:mustangsallyremember i did ask a question

Sally

Oh, yes. Well according to my sim, Sally's risk of ruin is way higher doing $5 + 10 than flat $5.

and that was with a bankroll of $20Quote:goatcabinOh, yes. Well according to my sim, Sally's risk of ruin is way higher doing $5 + 10 than flat $5.

so the odds bet made ruin more probable with my small $20 buy-in and $5 pass line bets

ruin

($20 bankroll, $5 pass line bets, 20 max bets, dinner after)

no odds: 0.405200406 <<< nice

2x odds: 0.759706261 <<< i willing to bet $5 that all thought this would be 99% or higher!

2x odds $45 bankroll: 0.487104965 <<< higher bankroll lower complete ruin

==============================

now, say I have $1000 bankroll, and I do too

risk of ruin for both betting systems = 0

if we change the $5 flat to $10 flat for 20 bets

ruin = 0

now

risk/reward

this could be done without a sim using ev and sd too

my data photos coming after my head feels better

Sally

pass 0 odds 20 bets max

bank = units ($20 bank $5 bets = 4 units)

dpass 0 odds 20 bets max

bank = units ($20 bank $5 bets = 4 units)

pass 2x odds 20 bets

bank = $ (20 = $20)

higher bankrolls

was this with your program or use wincraps?Quote:goatcabinI ran 100,000 sessions with $20 bankroll, 20-bet limit, no win goal.

For $5 pass:

bust rate: 40.7%

20-bet rate: 59.3%, average outcome +11.70, SD $16.60

overall net -$1.19, SD $20.15

38,376 winning sessions

9240 breakeven sessions

52,384 losing sessions

looks to me

like your session results are way off for some reason unknown at this time

I calculated

this in Excel and another program (because it is easy for me)

and i get these values (that are real close to my sim data too)

all calculated vales

For $5 pass:

bust prob: 0.405200406

20-bet prob: 0.594799594, average outcome 11.71332803, SD 15.8213885

overall net -1.136925377, SD 19.78088367

avg # of bets = 16.0793732

0.367297717 prob winning session

0.138954449 prob break-even session

0.506252166 prob even or winning

0.493747834 prob losing session

the other results will follow later

are you a California boy?

Sally