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FatGeezus
FatGeezus
Joined: Jun 12, 2010
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March 10th, 2015 at 3:21:48 PM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

while you guys argue who's johnson is really bigger...
sure one can
i do that all the time
when out playing craps with friends

most me friends only bet $5 pass line and always take $10 odds even on a 345x table
(yes I agree, fools they are!)

I tell them they are trying to jinx the table by not taking max odds
i especially like adding to their bet (odds only)
(this happens at other casino games too)
when point = 4 or 10

bet $5 and they return to me $15 on a win

I tell them to thank me
because i caused the point to be won
by maxing out the odds

I am so lucky
sweet!
Sally
(Mully)



And if you friend didn't make the Pass line bet (the fee) could you have added your free bet?

Of course not.

He paid the fee for both of you.
goatcabin
goatcabin
Joined: Feb 13, 2010
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March 10th, 2015 at 6:30:26 PM permalink
Quote: FatGeezus

And if you friend didn't make the Pass line bet (the fee) could you have added your free bet?

Of course not.

He paid the fee for both of you.



What point are you trying to make here? All the bets at the crap table (except the odds bets) carry a "fee", a built-in house advantage. The line bets have the lowest fee, except a buy bet under certain conditions.

If you make a line bet, you've paid the fee. The fee is the same whether you take/lay odds or not. Since the odds bets are paid "correctly", they have no associated fee. Many people say that taking odds reduces the house advantage, i.e. reduces the fee. I think this is misleading, because the expected loss does not change at all. The choice between taking/laying odds or not should not have anything to do with the fee, because it's there either way. Odds add variance without any additional expected loss, which is why they're referred to as "free odds"; I would call them "free variance", since the additional variance costs no extra.
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
goatcabin
goatcabin
Joined: Feb 13, 2010
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March 10th, 2015 at 6:52:44 PM permalink
Quote: FatGeezus

And if you friend didn't make the Pass line bet (the fee) could you have added your free bet?

Of course not.

He paid the fee for both of you.



Setting aside the "fee" issue for a moment, let's discuss the effect(s) of odds bets.

The advantage of odds bets is that you get additional variance without additional expected loss.
Betting $5 on the pass line has very low variance, good for surviving at the table on a limited bankroll, but bad for your chances of winning, say, half your bankroll.
You can get more variance by betting $15 instead of $5, but you increase your expected loss and risk of ruin.
You can get more variance without additional expected loss by taking odds on your $5 bet.
If you bet $15, your expected loss is $.2121, or $12.72 for 60 bets, a couple of hours' play, standard deviation $116.18.
If you bet $5 and take double odds, your expected loss for the 60 bets is $4.24, SD $110.67.
So, you cut your "fee" by 67% and get almost as much variance. You actually are reducing the house's expected take, by betting less on the flat and more on the odds.

Each player has to decide whether he/she wants more variance, of course. It cuts both ways, but variance is what gives us a chance to win. In most cases, the casino charges a lot for high variance, for example the prop bets.
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
FatGeezus
FatGeezus
Joined: Jun 12, 2010
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March 11th, 2015 at 8:22:50 AM permalink
Quote: goatcabin

Quote: FatGeezus

And if you friend didn't make the Pass line bet (the fee) could you have added your free bet?

Of course not.

He paid the fee for both of you.



What point are you trying to make here? All the bets at the crap table (except the odds bets) carry a "fee", a built-in house advantage. The line bets have the lowest fee, except a buy bet under certain conditions.

If you make a line bet, you've paid the fee. The fee is the same whether you take/lay odds or not.

Since the odds bets are paid "correctly", they have no associated fee.

Many people say that taking odds reduces the house advantage, i.e. reduces the fee. I think this is misleading, because the expected loss does not change at all. The choice between taking/laying odds or not should not have anything to do with the fee, because it's there either way. Odds add variance without any additional expected loss, which is why they're referred to as "free odds"; I would call them "free variance", since the additional variance costs no extra.



The point that I am trying to make here is that the odds bet is not free. You do have to pay a fee to make the odds bet. It's called the line bet.

You even stated that once you make a line bet you have paid the fee. You now have the option to make an odds bet. I agree that you don't have to make a additional fee to make an odds bet.

IMO to say that the odds bet is free is wrong. You have to pay the fee (line bet) in order to make an odds bet.

I never said that you have to pay an additional fee to make an odds bet.
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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March 11th, 2015 at 9:53:24 AM permalink
Quote: goatcabin

<snip> <snip>
For a 20-bet session, is there some amount of winnings that would satisfy you?

you must enjoy running simulations
sometimes i do too

oh yes, with a $20 buy-in my win goal would be $300+ (it is ok to go past one time and I consider ruin with less than $5 in the rail {4,3,2,1,0}, but the 20 bet session max is set in stone, for now)
then i stop for dinner

you finish your data, and have fun with it, and i will show my calculated data from Excel
we can compare

remember i did ask a question
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
goatcabin
goatcabin
Joined: Feb 13, 2010
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March 11th, 2015 at 10:24:04 AM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

you must enjoy running simulations
sometimes i do too

oh yes, with a $20 buy-in my win goal would be $300+ (it is ok to go past one time and I consider ruin with less than $5 in the rail {4,3,2,1,0}, but the 20 bet session max is set in stone, for now)
then i stop for dinner



Of course, with a flat $5 bet you'd have to win every bet to win $100, so the $300 win goal has no effect on that sim. I tried it with double odds, and TWICE in 100,000 sessions the bettor won $318. If you try more odds, you can't even make one bet with full odds on $20.

In order to win $300 in 20 bets from $20, you could just bet the whole $20 on the passline and parlay, having about a 6% chance of winning the first four and walking away with $320.

Quote: mustangsally

remember i did ask a question
Sally



Oh, yes. Well according to my sim, Sally's risk of ruin is way higher doing $5 + 10 than flat $5.
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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March 11th, 2015 at 12:18:17 PM permalink
Quote: goatcabin

Oh, yes. Well according to my sim, Sally's risk of ruin is way higher doing $5 + 10 than flat $5.

and that was with a bankroll of $20
so the odds bet made ruin more probable with my small $20 buy-in and $5 pass line bets

ruin
($20 bankroll, $5 pass line bets, 20 max bets, dinner after)
no odds: 0.405200406 <<< nice
2x odds: 0.759706261 <<< i willing to bet $5 that all thought this would be 99% or higher!
2x odds $45 bankroll: 0.487104965 <<< higher bankroll lower complete ruin

==============================
now, say I have $1000 bankroll, and I do too
risk of ruin for both betting systems = 0
if we change the $5 flat to $10 flat for 20 bets
ruin = 0

now
risk/reward
this could be done without a sim using ev and sd too

my data photos coming after my head feels better

Sally
pass 0 odds 20 bets max
bank = units ($20 bank $5 bets = 4 units)


dpass 0 odds 20 bets max
bank = units ($20 bank $5 bets = 4 units)


pass 2x odds 20 bets
bank = $ (20 = $20)

higher bankrolls
I Heart Vi Hart
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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March 19th, 2015 at 9:22:42 AM permalink
Quote: goatcabin

I ran 100,000 sessions with $20 bankroll, 20-bet limit, no win goal.
For $5 pass:
bust rate: 40.7%
20-bet rate: 59.3%, average outcome +11.70, SD $16.60
overall net -$1.19, SD $20.15
38,376 winning sessions
9240 breakeven sessions
52,384 losing sessions

was this with your program or use wincraps?
looks to me
like your session results are way off for some reason unknown at this time

I calculated
this in Excel and another program (because it is easy for me)
and i get these values (that are real close to my sim data too)

all calculated vales
For $5 pass:
bust prob: 0.405200406
20-bet prob: 0.594799594, average outcome 11.71332803, SD 15.8213885
overall net -1.136925377, SD 19.78088367
avg # of bets = 16.0793732


0.367297717 prob winning session
0.138954449 prob break-even session
0.506252166 prob even or winning
0.493747834 prob losing session

the other results will follow later

are you a California boy?
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart

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