ghostcrap
ghostcrap
Joined: Dec 31, 2014
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January 29th, 2015 at 1:20:34 AM permalink
I forgot to include in my original post that I am aware that the dice do not "remember" their last hits. I was saddened to see a couple people remind me of that. Considering the reasonable length I went in typing that post. Just kidding you all, but come on lol.

I HAVE TO disagree with that the probability is the same every single roll. Lets say you stood there waiting on two sevens back to back. It will happen generally speaking, half an hour, ish... But if you stand there waiting on ten or thirty back to back sevens. you will likely die of old age before you roll that 30 in your lifetime.

What I was curious is as to the mathematics behind how many rolls are predicted before back to back sevens.

This system of waiting is just to play a bit more on the safer side of things. I know that due to table max bet, that I would eventually get hurt. But if I waited for two or three sevens and played this method. I would be much much safer.

Adding to it, seven out twice then play 5-6-8-9. Or x2 units on the 568 then a single on the field. If it wins, pull it down. If it 7's out. Then push the progressive bets. Each bet being the total+1 of all lost. Yes I know it would require a large bankroll to cover it all. But it would be worth it. I see progressive betting as the only sure way of giving yourself the edge. If you stay single units. Then just don't play at all because you will eventually go broke. You have to chase your losses.
I am that guy that will start betting the Any7 if I notice the 7 hasn't hit in 21 rolls. (x3 times it's "expected" role rate)
rudeboyoi
rudeboyoi
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January 29th, 2015 at 2:28:27 AM permalink
All you are doing is waiting 36 rolls on average before you start betting. It just extends the time you are at the table because you will be standing there not betting. It's not going to make it any more or less likely a streak of 5 sevens will come up once you start betting.
bahdbwoy
bahdbwoy
Joined: Aug 23, 2013
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January 29th, 2015 at 3:24:33 AM permalink
wincraps is very user friendly in terms of basic logic like this. write it out on paper and you have it so just a little effort will solve.

granted there are probably more efficient ways to code it but I havent spent time to learn it in that depth.

use chipstacks to set progression values
use other chipstack to count 7s then reset to 0 on win or void
use other chipstack idenity when to bet then reset on win

you can use other chipstacks to count total bets, wins and loss to see your probability.
or even count that at each progression step. you will be sad to see results but will realize how pointless the waiting is. you just bet less so less total action.. ev on the action will be the same

sally will come through for you though, I am sure.. and will probably be less/better code. although the basic if/then code will do what you need .
RS
RS
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January 29th, 2015 at 3:57:57 AM permalink
You can code this yourself in excel.

ColA and ColB are rand(1,6), ColC is SUM(A1,B1). Then write some if/then code in ColD. Then stretch the code down like 10,000 lines or however many lines you want. Oh yeah have another column for "current net win/loss".

Actually I might try this myself right now if I'm not lazy enough to get outta bed.

Perhaps I'll even write up some Java or VBScript code and post the code and results.

Although I would ignore the back to back 7's. Or maybe I'll try it either way. We'll see.


Where's sally sue when you need her?
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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January 29th, 2015 at 4:31:54 AM permalink
Quote: ghostcrap

What do you all think of this?

(NOTE/KEY: Place bets are working on the come out roll, {A/B/C/D/E/F/G...} = "betting rounds" or rolls)
BANKROLL REQUIRED = $1,452
Wait for a seven to hit twice in a row. Then bet a single unit ($6) on the Place6 and Place8. If a third seven (loss) then bet the total lost from the beginning +2 units (you'll see why +2 units).



Something occurred to me: most of us like 'exactly' successive 7s [on the pass line], so this is a system for a place better 'only' who has his bets placed and 'on' at all times it seems.

One problem is that place bets don't lose just by successive 7s. It is not a one roll bet, and the intervening rolls are meaningless, like they never happened. That means now you will probably decide to work your system on successive lost bets, not successive 7s rolled - soon enough, I'm thinking. Something tells me that will be a disaster.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
RS
RS
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January 29th, 2015 at 4:37:42 AM permalink
I just did the excel spreadsheet thing. I ran it down to about 30 rolls, and "ran" it about 3 or 4 times. On the third one, I saw SIX 7's in a row. A few of the rows were marked FALSE and I was confused, but then realized I didn't input anything for the possibility if more than five 7's are rolled without a 6 or 8.

And yes, the 7's were IN A ROW....not "in a row without a 6 or 8" but back-to-back.

I think I said it earlier in this thread, you always expect those long-shot occurrences to happen way off in the future....and I was expecting the same thing, but sure enough, on the third run or simulation, I got a bunch of 7's in a row.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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January 29th, 2015 at 7:57:11 AM permalink
Quote: RS

I just did the excel spreadsheet thing. I ran it down to about 30 rolls, and "ran" it about 3 or 4 times. On the third one, I saw SIX 7's in a row. A few of the rows were marked FALSE and I was confused, but then realized I didn't input anything for the possibility if more than five 7's are rolled without a 6 or 8.

And yes, the 7's were IN A ROW....not "in a row without a 6 or 8" but back-to-back.

I think I said it earlier in this thread, you always expect those long-shot occurrences to happen way off in the future....and I was expecting the same thing, but sure enough, on the third run or simulation, I got a bunch of 7's in a row.

Isn't there some more interesting things you could be calculating?

Perhaps how to get free White Castle burgers.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
ghostcrap
ghostcrap
Joined: Dec 31, 2014
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January 29th, 2015 at 7:43:44 PM permalink
From what I looked up is that the %'s of 7's coming back to back are as follows. Anyone please correct me if I'm wrong. Yes, yes. I know the whole 16.667% of a seven hitting (1/6)/(6/36). But the probability of it happening is:

Roll1 16.666666667% 1/6
Roll2 02.77777778% 1/36 6*6
Roll3 00.46296296% 1/216 6*6*6
Roll4 00.07716049% 1/1,296 6*6*6*6
Roll5 00.01286008% 1/7,776 6*6*6*6*6
Roll6 00.00214335% 1/46,656 6*6*6*6*6*6
Rolll7 00.00035722% 1/279,936 6*6*6*6*6*6*6
Roll8 00.00005954% 1/1,679,616% 6*6*6*6*6*6*6*6
Roll9 00.00000992% 1/10,077,696 6*6*6*6*6*6*6*6*6
Roll10 00.00000165% 1/60,466,176 6*6*6*6*6*6*6*6*6*6
And so on and so on... Granted I know, I know that each roll is completely independent from the previous roll.

I played on Carbon Poker online Craps. And I started out with $50 and took it all the way to over $2,450. So I know that waiting on a seven then betting is worth it.

I was thinking tho that to increase the odds of winning would be to play the 5/6/8/9. But then to progressive bet that system would not allow many losses before reaching table max bet. Or to just play the Iron Cross. x2 units on the 5/6/8 and x1 unit on the field. I'm sure many of you know why to play x2 units on the place bets. So that if a place bet wins which means you loose the field. You cover the field loss with one unit then profit on the second unit as a normal unit win. I hope that made sense.

Also, if anyone has any better way to play and actually make money at the game with a method. Please share that goodness. :) I plan to stick around these forums for a while. I'm obsessed with them already.
I am that guy that will start betting the Any7 if I notice the 7 hasn't hit in 21 rolls. (x3 times it's "expected" role rate)
RS
RS
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January 29th, 2015 at 10:00:25 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Isn't there some more interesting things you could be calculating?

Perhaps how to get free White Castle burgers.



If you can figure out a way to get me free chipotle, I'll do the math on that.

Not a huge fan of WC.
sc15
sc15
Joined: Sep 28, 2014
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January 29th, 2015 at 10:18:42 PM permalink
you know the phrase tl;dr?

Well, I think I came up with one for betting systems.

dr;dw

didn't read; doesn't work

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