MathExtremist
MathExtremist
Joined: Aug 31, 2010
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May 4th, 2014 at 4:49:03 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

There is nothing misleading about my statement as it is qualified by "the way that most people bet the six or the eight." Six rolls on one costs the same as one roll on another. It's as simple as that.


You're comparing the EV of a solitary field bet with the EV of multiple place bets over six rolls, and you think that's a simple and valid comparison? You haven't even taken wager amounts into account -- the field is typically a $5 bet, while the place bet is a $6 bet at the EV you're citing. (If you make a $5 place 6 bet you end up with breakage and an edge of 9.09%)

If you re-run your analysis using a $5 field and a $6 place-six bet, would you suggest that the field is a better bet than the place bet?

Expected cost of single $5 Field = 2.78% (from previous calculation) * $5 = $0.139
Expected cost of multiple $6 Place 6 bets, winning bets stay up = 2.78% (from previous calculation) * $6 = $0.167.

That's like saying a single $5 Fire Bet is cheaper than playing $100 on the passline for two hours. It's absolutely true, but it's a totally unfair comparison.

Quote:

I can't even count the number of "misleading" things where the house edge is measured and compared between two different things that each have a different amount of rolls.


Yet that's exactly what you're doing...
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
Buzzard
Buzzard
Joined: Oct 28, 2012
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May 4th, 2014 at 5:07:18 PM permalink
" ME, before I get started, you should know that I have a tremendous amount of respect for you, "

This is commonly known in polite circles as " Don't take this personal "

I always take it personal.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
bodyforlife
bodyforlife
Joined: Feb 25, 2013
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May 4th, 2014 at 5:21:15 PM permalink
Quote: dicesitter

Mustangsally



You have run into the rath of Ahigh, as anyone on his site would tell you, you are welcome on
his site or even to speak with him as long as you agree with him.... But lord almighty, if you have
an opinion different than his.......

There is nothing this side of hell worse than Ahigh scorned.....


I used to think he was this great player, had his own show and site and i was impressed.

But after conversing with him on his site and on here and seeing him play. wel;l it was just alot
of attention wasted. There are some pretty damn good players in vegas that understand the game
but he is not one of them. He is a completely random player that talks way over his level
of ability, much like most of us i guess. The difference is i think most of us upset others by
accident, not on purpose and most of us want to be better players and help others to be for them
and not to make us look better.

when you make everyone you come into contact upset, and when the table crew cant wait until
some one leaves.....and the pit boss hates that you are playing... well that is not real good for the
game.


I for one am sorry i ever got involved with him. and in the scope of full disclosure, i am sure he would
say the same about me. It was not my intention to have a poor relationship with him, but no matter
how i approached it, it always came out the same.

But life goes on


dicesetter



Well said Dicesetter. If I were to give you some advice, don't expend any energy whatsoever on this. It's simply not worth your time. Besides, as with most bullies, they eventually meet their match and Sally exposed him for what he was. I'm sure we'll chat at some point in the future. I don't waste a lot of time on this forum because there are too many guys that get into the "my cock's bigger than yours" with their one upmanship. As you stated, it doesn't make for a friendly environment for novices just trying to get information.



The Antagonizer

Comment forums are made for divergent viewpoints and intelligent, spirited debate. The Antagonizer, though, takes things to another, more primitive level, resorting to personal attacks and insults in what may be a nostalgic flashback to carefree bygone days as a third-grade bully.

"Do I even have to explain how stupid of a name Stefan is for a man?" one such person wrote on a popular tech blog's story about Apple's touchscreens. He went on to close his remarks with this jab: "I bet you shave your armpits." That's about as clever as the repartee gets in Antagonizer Land; more often the insights run along the lines of "You bleep!" "Bleep you!" "Bleep bleep bleep bleep bleep!" Proof positive that, online, it isn't difficult for a person to be both loud and boring.
Ahigh
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
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May 4th, 2014 at 5:48:22 PM permalink
Quote: bodyforlife

Well said Dicesetter. If I were to give you some advice, don't expend any energy whatsoever on this. It's simply not worth your time. Besides, as with most bullies, they eventually meet their match and Sally exposed him for what he was. I'm sure we'll chat at some point in the future. I don't waste a lot of time on this forum because there are too many guys that get into the "my cock's bigger than yours" with their one upmanship. As you stated, it doesn't make for a friendly environment for novices just trying to get information.



The Antagonizer

Comment forums are made for divergent viewpoints and intelligent, spirited debate. The Antagonizer, though, takes things to another, more primitive level, resorting to personal attacks and insults in what may be a nostalgic flashback to carefree bygone days as a third-grade bully.

"Do I even have to explain how stupid of a name Stefan is for a man?" one such person wrote on a popular tech blog's story about Apple's touchscreens. He went on to close his remarks with this jab: "I bet you shave your armpits." That's about as clever as the repartee gets in Antagonizer Land; more often the insights run along the lines of "You bleep!" "Bleep you!" "Bleep bleep bleep bleep bleep!" Proof positive that, online, it isn't difficult for a person to be both loud and boring.



Nice job, there with that post. I haven't brushed up on the rules lately, but it sure seems like you're violating a few rules with this one.
aahigh.com
Ahigh
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
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May 4th, 2014 at 5:53:51 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

You're comparing the EV of a solitary field bet with the EV of multiple place bets over six rolls, and you think that's a simple and valid comparison? You haven't even taken wager amounts into account -- the field is typically a $5 bet, while the place bet is a $6 bet at the EV you're citing. (If you make a $5 place 6 bet you end up with breakage and an edge of 9.09%)

If you re-run your analysis using a $5 field and a $6 place-six bet, would you suggest that the field is a better bet than the place bet?

Expected cost of single $5 Field = 2.78% (from previous calculation) * $5 = $0.139
Expected cost of multiple $6 Place 6 bets, winning bets stay up = 2.78% (from previous calculation) * $6 = $0.167.

That's like saying a single $5 Fire Bet is cheaper than playing $100 on the passline for two hours. It's absolutely true, but it's a totally unfair comparison.


Yet that's exactly what you're doing...



I respectfully disagree with your conclusions about misleading folks. You and I both agree on the math. Sally and I had some similar disputes relating to similar issues, yet I refuse to acknowledge that my characterization of placing a bet and leaving it up for multiple rolls is any different from anyone elses, including "per bet resolved" as defined by the Wizard. Especially when I am very clear about the fact that most players don't take down place bets as it related to this specific point.

The only folks I could possibly be misleading would be misled to think that the place bet on the six is more expensive than it really is. So even if you were right, which I believe you are not, and I am in fact misleading folks, what is the harm of what you are accusing me of doing exactly? Causing someone to think?
aahigh.com
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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May 4th, 2014 at 6:16:56 PM permalink
No reason to disagree or have personal arguments about how to beat craps.

because its not possible with normal play including DI
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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May 4th, 2014 at 8:19:37 PM permalink
Quote: dicesitter

You have run into the rath of Ahigh, as anyone on his site would tell you, you are welcome on
his site or even to speak with him as long as you agree with him.... But lord almighty, if you have
an opinion different than his.......

funny it still is.
actually very sad that he thinks all of his results is the truth.

I mean, he starts his first post in this thread with some sim data that was not even asked about.
Got half of his results quite accurate. 50% is better than 0%
and when presented by two others that his results could be very accurate using a simple formula,
no simulation required,
he says his work is close enough to show his simulation is working. hehe

stop it
hehe

He continues on and on and I really can not read much more of his first post without hurting myself from out-of-controlled laughing.
at least the laughing is much cheaper (+EV) than just smoking pot in Colorado.

I still
hehe

he says right away too for the OP
"In the real world, on average a $100 buy-in at a $10 table will last you about four hours without playing odds"
more what? conclusions (about) hehe... *real world*

I get, hehe, the average number of rolls to ruin a 10 unit bankroll = 2,300 (only a 5k sim)
median = 540
and this = about 4 hours of play. sure. OK. about
hehehe

So I found 100,000 craps players, real ones, to play until ruin and count the number of bets it took to be totally broke.
They had free food and drinks from Sally's Casino.
(for rolls multiply by 3.375 I did hehe)

median: 168.00 (567 rolls)
maximum value: 58,042 (195,891 rolls) ****WOW!
this player must have thought she (it was a she) IS the greatest craps player of all time.****
mean value: 731.13 (2,468) about
hehe


stop it
stop it

we all have our opinions
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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May 4th, 2014 at 8:32:19 PM permalink
Quote: bodyforlife

It's simply not worth your time. Besides, as with most bullies,

bully? naw
Quote: bodyforlife

they eventually meet their match and Sally exposed him for what he was.

I did that?
Honestly, I really thought he exposed himself but I could be incorrect on that here.
Quote: bodyforlife

I'm sure we'll chat at some point in the future.
I don't waste a lot of time on this forum because there are too many guys that get into the "my cock's bigger than yours" with their one upmanship.

sounds fun

Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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May 4th, 2014 at 9:11:47 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

How come no one ever propositions me when I talk about math? I'm still waiting to hear back from JuicieJennie...

I can defiantly arrange that. However i want my pimpen fee up front. You dig?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
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May 4th, 2014 at 9:28:53 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I can defiantly arrange that. However i want my pimpen fee up front. You dig?



LOL, how much money do I have to win for you???

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