Ahigh
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
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May 8th, 2014 at 1:16:12 AM permalink
Why you up so late? Yeah, I just pulled up a spreadsheet I made a while back to notice the lay bets have very low edges per roll. Especially the four and ten lay with Vig on the win.

Lay with vig on the win can be found in Las Vegas, and I know where, but since you mentioned it, can you name a place?

Fiesta Henderson has vig on the win for all lay bets, but you're right there is at least one more chain that does vig on the win for the four or ten. Just wondering if you know which ones?

Most do vig up front on all but the 4 and 10 for some odd reason.

I have actually been doing more lay bets with vig up front the last few days and have been winning.

I probably do more lay bets with vig up front than anybody that I see play, actually.

The dealers can get very annoyed with these bets as they don't book them frequently. Some break-ins are left scratching their heads.

I have also had dealers pay lay bets on the five and nine that are multiple of $6 as if they were a six or eight (every 6 pays 5 instead of every 6 pays 4) as a result of lack of practice. I always correct them though.
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Ahigh
Ahigh
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May 8th, 2014 at 1:44:11 AM permalink
I know of one set of properties and one casino that offers that.

MGM offers 4/10 only vig on win. Up front on others.

Fiesta Rancho is Vig on win on everything behind. But I have been trespassed from Fiesta Casinos for "counting dice?"

Edge per rolls are:

Vig up front laying to win $20

-0.609756% 4/10
-0.896057% 5/9
-1.222222% 6/8

Vig up front laying to win $24/$25

-0.490196% 4/10
-0.750751% 5/9
-0.985663% 6/8

The properties that do offer me vig on the win on 4/10 do not comp well at all. No reason to go.

The elusive 0.33% on the lay -- let me know details where you would do that. I'm just not doing MGM, but maybe you know a better spot for that. Everywhere wants up front vigs here on lay bets.

I use a spreadsheet to calculate these numbers. The same spreadsheet that let's me put in face weights from observed face counts. This is what I was doing when I got trespassed from Fiesta Properties. I haven't been back in quite a long time.
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AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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May 8th, 2014 at 2:39:42 AM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

Fiesta Rancho is Vig on win on everything behind. But I have been trespassed from Fiesta Casinos for "counting dice?"



Were they both there?
Jimbo
Jimbo
Joined: Mar 11, 2013
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May 8th, 2014 at 3:20:51 AM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

Highest edge per bet placed is a put bet on the four or ten at 33.33% per roll - I see idiots do this frequently...


You explicitly state that the game should be "dissected" only on average edge per roll. Isn't the house edge percentage of 33.33% for the put bet on the four or ten on a per bet resolved basis? Not per roll. This also assumes that the put bet has no odds.

I recognize that the issue and reasonableness of put bets is off track of this thread, but I wanted to respond to your comment. Upon many hundreds of hours of play, I have not once observed a put bet on a four or ten without accompanying odds, let alone "frequently."

I am not suggesting that players always make the smartest bets, but in my experience, dealers will sometimes suggest the more advantageous way for an unwise bet such as the put bet you mentioned. For example, a dealer may say simply say "you are better off with buying the number." Then again, many dealers (especially in Las Vegas) don't really care about helping craps players.

With odds of only 3x-4x-5x, we all know that a player is better off buying the four or ten. With the vig on the win only, assuming higher odds are available, then you would need to take 6x odds on the put bet to achieve the same house edge as the buy bet.
Steen
Steen
Joined: Apr 7, 2014
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May 8th, 2014 at 3:57:45 AM permalink
Quote: endermike

With respect, I disagree. Action is different from initial wager. I agree action is the better measure, but HE is defined by the initial bet size as the denominator.



Sure, I understand. The term "Action" can mean many things in gambling. Although I think I've described my use of it well enough and I think it's useful for calculating the correct HA of multiple simultaneous bets, there's no sense in arguing when we can just approach this from another angle.

I understand that you'd like to see the "Initial wager" in the denominator and keep it that way even when it's the sum of multiple wagers that do not always resolve at the same time. No problem. Then we just need to properly account for the resolutions in the numerator. We can't lump together and overlap them in the manner we've been doing.

Let's consider our Mr. Whale again. Sally says he has a wife who bets the Buy 10 for him. So let's compute their separate HA's:

Mr. Whale, $1000 Buy 4
3/9 chance to win $1950
6/9 chance to lose $1000
Average outcome -$16.67
HA = avg outcome/initial wager = -$16.67/$1000 = -1.667% (As expected)

Mrs. Whale, $2 Buy 10
3/9 chance to win $3 (house takes min $1 vig)
6/9 chance to lose $2
Average outcome -$0.33
HA = avg outcome/initial wager = -$0.33/$2 = -16.67% (quite high considering the 50% vig)

Given this information, what is the combined HA of the Whales in terms of their combined initial wager of $1002?

We already know that the previously calculated -$12.75/$1002 = -1.272% can't be correct, so let's try summing their individual results:

sum(avg outcomes) / sum(initial wagers) = (-$16.67 -$0.33) / ($1000 + $2) = -1.697%

Sounds reasonable doesn't it? An average that lies between -1.667% and -16.67% yet more heavily weighted toward -1.667% due to the much larger size of the Buy 4 bet. How does that compare with the HA calculated using action?

3/12 chance to win Buy 4 with $1000 in action
3/12 chance to win Buy 10 with $2 in action
6/12 chance to lose both bets with $1002 in action
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average action = $751.50

HA = -$12.75/$751.50 = -1.697% Hey, it's the same! How about that.

I'll grant you that HA doesn't tell you everything there is to know about a bet, but it's still pretty darn useful.

Steen
Ahigh
Ahigh
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May 8th, 2014 at 7:42:33 AM permalink
Quote: Jimbo

You explicitly state that the game should be "dissected" only on average edge per roll. Isn't the house edge percentage of 33.33% for the put bet on the four or ten on a per bet resolved basis? Not per roll. This also assumes that the put bet has no odds.

I recognize that the issue and reasonableness of put bets is off track of this thread, but I wanted to respond to your comment. Upon many hundreds of hours of play, I have not once observed a put bet on a four or ten without accompanying odds, let alone "frequently."

I am not suggesting that players always make the smartest bets, but in my experience, dealers will sometimes suggest the more advantageous way for an unwise bet such as the put bet you mentioned. For example, a dealer may say simply say "you are better off with buying the number." Then again, many dealers (especially in Las Vegas) don't really care about helping craps players.

With odds of only 3x-4x-5x, we all know that a player is better off buying the four or ten. With the vig on the win only, assuming higher odds are available, then you would need to take 6x odds on the put bet to achieve the same house edge as the buy bet.



Placing a put bet on the 4/10 is a one-roll mistake that costs 33.33% on the first roll and has a zero average cost after that cost. You could say that the average cost per roll for that bet is lower if you wanted by defining it that way, but you'd fail to make the realization that this is a mistake and cost that occurs in a single roll if you did.

I see people putting the 4/10 pretty damn frequently without odds myself. Probably an average of two or three times per day.

I agree with all your other points. This is the worst mistake you can make on a per roll basis, and I watch it without correcting it frequently. It's like nails on a chalkboard. I've seen it happen at $100 with no odds at a Caesar's property and nobody said ANYTHING. Not even me!!!

Good dealers and classy casinos will push the bet back a few inches or throw a lammer out before the second roll. Even classy casinos have dealers that just don't care though.
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98Clubs
98Clubs
Joined: Jun 3, 2010
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May 8th, 2014 at 9:55:51 AM permalink
18 Pages...

$5 Pass or Don't loses 7c
$5 Pass (Don't)+ $25 ($30) Odds loses 7c.

Bankroll, Bankroll, Bankroll. Losing 20 bets costs as little as $100 or as much as $700.
Then again winning 20 bets can win as little as $100 or as much as a grand.
For the risk of losing $100 one might win $100.
For the risk of losing $700 one might win $700.

But at some point one has to question if Craps with House edge, is a better wager
than Blackjack in which the House edge can be overcome.
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
dicesitter
dicesitter
Joined: Jan 17, 2013
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May 9th, 2014 at 7:20:26 AM permalink
Axiom


That is correct, every roll is like a contract with the casino on every bet you have, some you win, some you lose
and some are not resolved yet.

But the key factor is for every dollar you bet there will be a house advantage taken from it.... period.

Making money and over-coming the house advantage are not the same thing. The house advantage is determined
by not paying you the right odds when you hit a bet. Now i understand some folks say that is not correct, it is
determined by your potential to hit the number, but that is really the same thing.

to make money at the table you just have to either get real lucky and have or be at the table during a real good roll, hit
a bonus bet, or be able to throw the dice in some fashion as to hit the numbers you are on or repeat numbers more
often than the normal math of the game would dictate. Making money means that for what ever reason, you
have been at the table where the positive outcomes have overcome the house advantage and gave you a win. But
the house advantage still applied even if you won, but you won enough to pay them and yourself.


dicesetter
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
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May 9th, 2014 at 10:48:06 AM permalink
Quote: dicesitter

Axiom


That is correct, every roll is like a contract with the casino on every bet you have, some you win, some you lose
and some are not resolved yet.

But the key factor is for every dollar you bet there will be a house advantage taken from it.... period.

Making money and over-coming the house advantage are not the same thing. The house advantage is determined
by not paying you the right odds when you hit a bet. Now i understand some folks say that is not correct, it is
determined by your potential to hit the number, but that is really the same thing.

to make money at the table you just have to either get real lucky and have or be at the table during a real good roll, hit
a bonus bet, or be able to throw the dice in some fashion as to hit the numbers you are on or repeat numbers more
often than the normal math of the game would dictate. Making money means that for what ever reason, you
have been at the table where the positive outcomes have overcome the house advantage and gave you a win. But
the house advantage still applied even if you won, but you won enough to pay them and yourself.


dicesetter



I have no idea what you are talking about.

No one said anything about making money or overcoming the house edge. All craps players lose lots of money; everyone knows that. The question is just about how to lose the least money.

I am simply talking about how best to calculate the house edge on particular bets to best compare them. I think that edge per roll makes the most sense, because it allows one to make easy comparisons between different bets.
dicesitter
dicesitter
Joined: Jan 17, 2013
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May 9th, 2014 at 3:37:02 PM permalink
Axiom


That is why you play the game, to make money.

We were talking about any combination of bets that can change the HA or if taking bets down after
one roll would change the HA.

Certainly it does not.

You dont have to calculate the house advantage on any bet it has been calculated long
before there was any discussion on this board.

Since no combination of bets can change the house advantage on any of the bets your making,
the only discussion we should be having is how to over come the advantage. not change it.

We all know buying a 10 is a better bet than playing a hard 6 or 8, but buying a 10 when your
throwing hard 6's and 8's will cost you money.

This nonsense about creating all these graphs and charts looks good, but it has nothing to do
with making money at the table.

Dicesetter

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